The fate of GBPUSD. Please Help a worried soul

Trading Discussion
41

I downloaded and got only the mql file. After loading the indicator I see no lines and just “0.00” in both long and short columns?

42

Hello, many thanks for replying Kashif, it is worthwhile pursuing the con pos as I really think you will find it useful. Installing anything can be difficult till it finally works.

When I did from scratch yesterday I noted the ConPos MQL4 source file kept on vanishing until I checked the allow DLL tick box thing.

I have only installed this one conpos indicator (yesterday) since they last updated MT4 to build 600 ?, so my knowledge on this is very thin. I am also sorry but the BP forum does not seem to allow me to attach these files for you.

This is a link on how to install the indicator on reading it - it says you only need the Conpos ex4 file.

How to install custom indicators in MT4 build 600 | Abundance Trading Group

Hope this helps a little, better people than me will guide you if you run into further difficulties.
Do keep updating how you get on with this and Gd Luck !

43

Hi,
Thanks for the useful post.
Cheers

44

Post-FOMC minutes:

GBP/USD at/under 1.66;
EUR/USD under 1.33;
NZD/USD under 0.84…

45

Pipme is a great trader and great contributor here, so his advice is worth listening to.

I agree with Pip, stay away from Sterling pairs because at this point the downside is limited volume is lower than on previous days so momentum will cool even if the downside does continue it will be choppy.

You may find it helpful to look at what sterling is doing on other pairs before jumping long or short sometimes it is good to wait it out and do nothing. Note that Sterling will rise again but the market uses news most effectively to suck many into weak positions under false pretenses of that news is good when it can easily be interpreted as bad against a particular pair, the media will soon develop an excuse as to why the market had the opposite reaction.

Really what does any of this have to do with Trillions of currency orders transacted everyday by people who have no concern for CPI or GDP? It is just an order flow… So look at technical analysis first and then validate via fundamentals i.e. will the market maker use this news to create volatility in my favour? This will mean you don’t enter the market unless your analysis tells you, you should.

46

I normally never tell anyone how to trade as it is individual business. Take a look at a few of my posts in here. One my earlier post was that I lost £1400 in one day news trading with a friend. I had made £400 the day before, I was pretty pumped…You know how that goes!

  1. First rule I broke was, I was trading a very large position that I had no business trading.

  2. I was trading the news point of view not mine. The media is simply a marketing beast.

  3. I didn’t manage my risk relative to my equity, in your case you added to a loosing position on anticipation of a reversal. Always cut your losses the moment a position moves against, normally I say half my stop loss position on a day trade. You will make it back no question about it.

That said, close your position so you don’t become another wipe out victim. It will be half your equity but you will make it back if you trade differently on another trade. Reduce your position size to half a lot. I trade full lots only on long day trades (my stops are normally really wide and realistic so I rarely get caught out) I have a large account too but sometimes when testing systems I trade 10k lots and add gradually if I am winning, max 50k with a tight stop on intraday trades.

Trading should be fun and not stressful so I really feel for you. I post regularly so you are welcome to check them out maybe you’ll find the helpful. Good luck fella.

47

Yes just saw that. Too bad is all I can say.

48

Thanks a lot for your detailed reply and support. The thing is that I am on Automated system for like 8 months and never trade manually on live account because I think I am not yet ready to trade myself. My EA did good for like 8 months till this GBPUSD fall. The strategy of the EA is martingale and it just doubles the counter trend trade till its goal is reached. I always leave 2000 USD equity per pair and so far this strategy was working fine. I had some big draw downs but usually a pair bounce back after like a maximum of 400 pips but this time its not the case. If I would have been trading manually I must have put a stop loss. But the EA has hidden stop loss which is after 600 pips.

Now my DD reach 2700 USD and equity left is 4800 USD. I am in no position to accept this loss. What I did is added 2000 USD to increase my equity and also close part of my trades but the question which is bothering me that what are the estimated down limits of GBPUSD? I am sick of watching it falling and falling. There are hundred of rumors out there. Some say that 1.6550 is the support and it will bounce back but some say it will go down to like 1.61. I dont know what to listen? If it can bounce back after 1.6550 than I can manage the trades but if it goes like 1.6100 than I will end up losing my account. I want to see this pair going back to 1.70 mark but I dont know if and when this move will happen and what factors will trigger this move.

49

Thanks for the link. Yes did everything what you said but still the indicator is not working!

50

A bounce on GBP is inevitable, if you are swing trader you would have likely sold sterling from 1.7100. My initial analysis on this pair was if it broke 1.7000 it will go to 2.0000 over time, I was wrong then but I never traded it long, why? It was at a known top and despite expectations the real money was in a short position. Then Carney bottled the rake hike immediately all the hedgefunds would be selling Sterling. Note Carney is months ahead of everyone so he knew he was never going to raise rates. So why then would he say he was and this expectation saw Sterling rise? Why then a few months later he says he won’t? This is what central banks do, they play with the markets emotions to secure their own agenda of currency stability, continuing international trade and overall financial stability of the foreign exchange market.

So this is why EA’s don’t work and never will. The market is guided by disinformation, deceit and human emotions. An EA may observe minor changes in parameters and buy an instrument but the market maker is about to move the market saw he uses shock news to do that. There is no EA alive that can predict the market makers inventory available to the public. They are not worth spending on. Can an EA detect when an Elliott’s fifth wave is about to be corrected? Can it tell whether the volume coming into the market is buying or selling volume?

My advice is ditch the EA and start with a simple strategy on a day trade. Buy when price is above teh 200 EMA for 50 pips target stop at 20 pips below the MA. Sell when price goes below. Don’t enter the market outside this set up. This is just an example of one way to trade and it would be valid even for a professional hedge fund. You don’t need an EA, they will win but when they loose it is total wipe-out. It is a machine with no emotion desire.

Take a look at the Flash crash online, you will see even the major players loose cash big time with these machines. They don’t work, they make the developers f+++ing rich.

51

I’d agree. Ditch that EA. But if you want to keep it here’s some food for thought. Don’t use a strategy that martingales counter trends on the gbpusd. That’s the pair that trends the best. Eurusd is a close second. So I’d skip that pair too. I know this from personal experience as I position trade but I did google some proof in case you wanted to check it. Which Currency Pair Trends The Best

52

The GBPUSD may keep dropping some more and a visit to the 1.6518 area is possible.

53

Hello Kashif try this to install the conpos indicator.

On your MT4 platform go to file (top left) click on it locate “open data folder” from the drop down menu click on that
Open the MQL4 folder
Open the indicator Folder
paste the Con pos Files into the indicator folder
close the MT4 platform down
reopen it
the indicator should then be available to open on the chart

thanks for your patience,

54

Thanks a lot for the detailed reply. When I started learning Forex I was not a fan of EA’s but someone who introduced me to Forex is a retired guy living happily for the past two years on the income generated by EA. This made me excited and like I said I always made money during the past few months but now I am thinking to learn more and start trading myself like you said. Actually I played with many systems, MAs but at the end I always end up losing so that is why I choose EA. I did experiment with 200 and 100 MAs but not having a good luck and in the end of month my profits overtaken by losses. I want to know about the 200 EMA strategy you mentioned. On which time frame it works the best? I will try it on my demo account.

Please keep visiting this thread and share whatever knowledge you have about the fate of GBPUSD. Thanks a lot.

Yes you are right. Thanks a lot. I better had other pairs which are non trending to test the EA. Is there a list available of pairs which are mostly ranging? The EA open so many trades. Buy, Sell, etc and at the end close the whole basket in profits. So I think pairs which are best for hedging and which range mostly will work good. I may not use the EA but I may try it on ranging pairs on demo. So please advise about ranging pairs.

Thanks a lot.

You sure bro? Any source of info? and will it finally bounce back after this level?

Thanks bro for the help. I did already what you told but no success. After loading the indicator I see no figures. It looks like this.

untitled.bmp (39.7 KB)

Its ok bro. I dont want you to stress. You already helped a lot on this issue. I ll check it later. Thanks a lot.

55

Hello Kashif

From the picture you supply you seem 95% there with the ConPos installation.

I believe, now, you just need to check-tick the allow DLL imports.
To do this just click on the indicator in the indicator list as you drop it down from the indicators button.
I hope this final step allows the Con Pos to work.

Thanks for your feedback and persistance with this.


56

Hello Kashif and people of this forum!

I have just posted a volume/price analysis on the other GBP/USD thread currently in Forextown:

http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/67973-whats-happening-gbp-usd-3.html

I just thought you may like to read it and post your own thoughts based on that…

Cheers

PS - I am also going to be linking that thread post to the ‘Thoughts about Volume’ thread made by Emeraldorc…

57

“Yes you are right. Thanks a lot. I better had other pairs which are non trending to test the EA. Is there a list available of pairs which are mostly ranging? The EA open so many trades. Buy, Sell, etc and at the end close the whole basket in profits. So I think pairs which are best for hedging and which range mostly will work good. I may not use the EA but I may try it on ranging pairs on demo. So please advise about ranging pairs.”

I’ve always hated the nzd/chf. Whipping all over the place I never got a feel for it. Might be a good demo try for your EA…

58

Hi Kashif,

The 200 is in my opinion the only MA worth looking at. It is relevant on all time frames. The large institutions use the 200SMA as a serious level (I learned this a few years ago from one the best guys in the business, a lucky meeting for me). This makes it self fulfilling. Open GBP/USD compute the 200EMA (I prefer this it is smoothed out). Compute ofcourse based on the closing prices (MT4 gives you the options). You will see even the latest down move on my 4 hour chart FxPro GBPUSD h4 WNTwn | cTrader respect the yellow line which is the 200EMA. See as it broke not even the retrace got above the 200, so using this alone you will never sell or buy unless price crosses above or below and you will not sell if price is too far below and you will not buy if it is too far above. Price will always return to its average so buying to far out could mean you are at the end of a cycle.

Many hedgefunds trade on this signal alone and nothing else and have a fund just for that strategy. You don’t need an EA for this.

The guy who sold you the idea clearly had a hidden agenda. I got a call the other day with a company trying to sell me an EA that would apparently give me 85% win and they will take a percentage of my win and it was free, blah, blah… Anyway she sounded kind of sexy so I tolerated her till my wife called who is also sexy, so I said to her look got to go but send me an email. This shi@ is getting more common.

Not worth the losses in the end.

Many people trade with 8 period MA, 10 period, oh! the brokers favorite 14 period MA. These averages are noisy. You must allow 75 periods at least as a relevant average of any kind. In anycase many would say they work so each to his own but I believe best practice and any statistical data is more relevant if collected over a larger sample in this case over a longer time period (in the scenarios my Economics does help). So bare this in mind when working with averages of any kind.

A real life example is assuming You had a sample 100 people who all died at the average age of 80, then 1 person died at 40. The effect on the average will be minimal but then if the next 40 people all died at the age 40, you will see a significant change in the average and if this continues soon the average age of death will fall below the previous average age and soon the new average will be 50 or 60 indicating a change in the trend, we now know people are dying younger, so we must start planning for death earlier. So the more people, the more relevant the data.

59

Hello traders!

‘Professor’ Emerald is absolutely right, as always … I bow to his superior insight!

Kashif: latching on what Emerald said about the two-hundred period Moving Day Average, I would like to

recommend this article by trading instructor James Stanley on trading with this indicator:

I hope this helps!

Cheers

60

Already did that bro but no use!

Thanks bro. Will reply there.

Thanks bro. will try on demo.

Thanks a lot bro for such detailed explaination. I will experiment with 200 EMA or MA as soon as I will get my mind off from this GBPUSD headache. I hope it recovers soon. Lol at the EA story. She must be sexy lol. I also have oscassional phone calls about brokers selling there EAs or ask for managed accounts etc. I always ignore it like you did.

The person I told you never sold me the EA. He is a very nice and simple person and he just told me about the EA which he is using. Thats all. Anyhow, lesson learned. I will experiment with 200 MA as told.