Look closely at the M1 and W1 narrow candle charts. Could you tell which is which if they were not labeled?
Do you know anything about quantum physics?
Is light a wave or particle?
What does quantum physics have to do with trading?
Quantum physics tells us what we don’t know when it comes to trading.
In quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. That is, the more precisely one property is known, the less precisely the other can be known. This statement has been interpreted in two different ways. According to Heisenberg its meaning is that it is impossible to determine simultaneously both the position and velocity of an electron or any other particle with any great degree of accuracy or certainty. According to others (for instance Ballentine)[1] this is not a statement about the limitations of a researcher’s ability to measure particular quantities of a system, but it is a statement about the nature of the system itself as described by the equations of quantum mechanics.
Think about this… the next tick could be the start of a reversal. How would you know? When would you know?
This about this…
Since traders have been discussing “trend” for decades, if not centuries, then why do so many traders, including the best and brightest minds at hedge funds, banks and mutual funds, lose?
If “trend” existed then all one has to do to make money is to trade with the trend. Shouldn’t that be simple to do?
Just pointing out the obvious, then I’ll go away.
You may have been better served allowing a complete theory to be presented before trying to disprove it.
Debate or not, this is a little more than antagonistic, no matter how factual the results.
Sometimes it’s not about the content, it’s the presentation that begats the controversy.
now this is a strong opinion thread:D
i think there are trends… because they are in the charts everytime i look at them.
you´re trying to prove that the clouds in the sky are not clouds and clouds don´t exists… they are only water in gas form…
Hasn’t there been enough writting about “trend” already?
Antagonistic? Why not educational? Scientists perform rigorous testing to disprove their theories. And sometimes the results that scientist produce are very controversial.
I am not posting in Tymen’s thread so there should not be a problem. In academia there are plenty of professors proving each other wrong all the time. That’s how education advances.
A fellow physics nut? 
Things get tricky down at the Plank scale don’t they!
You’re analogy is slightly off target… you may see George Washington or a poodle head in the sky. But it’s only the clouds which are random water molecules.
I am showing that trend exists only in the mind of the trader.
What you see as trend is your opinion which may be different from what another traders sees when they look at the same chart at the same time. It’s all relative, as Einstein proved. It is based on the observer.
if there are no trends how should we trade??
because i trade always against the trend and i know a lot of traders trade with the trend.
what are the other options?
i agree with that: a trend only exists in the mind of a trader.
but is the ability of see the trends in our minds useless?!?!? or bad in any way???
Correct.
They DO try to disprove theories. However, there are usually COMPLETE theories to disprove.
A bit premature here is all I was saying.
Carry on.
Should be entertaining if nothing else.
I’ll get a 12 pack, and sit over here in the grass to watch the inevitable fireworks:p
How should we trade? Profitably!
Seriously, one should trade according to their plan.
Supply & demand does not recognize trend.
It gives a sh*t about trend & it’s intellectual postering by people who get a kick out of it.
Supply & demand is interested in price & not trend.
One overwhelms the other;
price will go up & go down regardless of TF used.
I can trade supply & demand on any TF from Tick to 1 Month.
I can see that price may look different at different time frames and different levels of magnification. So my question is this. If you look at some time frame like daily, and price has clearly headed down or up. either one. Then doesn’t that mean that there has been (notice the past tense) some economic or supply & demand pressure that has given it a bias in that direction? Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction? I’m assuming your answer is going to be no, but I’d like to know why?
I don’t even need a TF to trade supply & demand.
OHLC in an excel sheet is more than enough.
So my question is this. If you look at some time frame like daily, and price has clearly headed down or up. either one. Then doesn’t that mean that there has been (notice the past tense) some economic or supply & demand pressure that has given it a bias in that direction?
That’s what supply & demand does to price of a product.
What’s the product that is bought & sold in the FX market [pick your market]?
In FX the product is money.
That product money is no different from the product bread in a corner store because it has the same supply & demand dynamics.
Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction?
I don’t know.
Why?
Because I don’t know what price [tag] is shown.
Without price [tag] I can’t tell.
And price [tag] is the same everywhere from Tick to 1 Month TF.
Just find a TF to trade.
everyone sees different trends according to how far they they are zoomed out/in on a certain TF chart. thats obvious, what someone sees as a bull market could easily be seen as a bear market on a different TF/zoom level. this is what probably accounts for a rough trend. if EVERYONE saw the same thing on the SAME TF and SAME zoom level then EVERYONE would trade in the “trending” direction wouldnt they? But, if someone on the daily zoomed out is seeing a downtrend while someone on the hourly zoomed in is seeing an uptrend that will cause a “rough” trend, instead of simply in one direction.
so, depending upon which TF and zoom level your at will determine your current trend. and there are some people who dont even trade with the trend. there are some people who will say the PSAR is giving a sell signal so they sell etc.
trends do exist. but at all different TF and zoom levels. if you are seeing price go down you are observing a bear trend. wheather you call it a trend or not the propper word for it is a trend. Google “trend definition” tell me what you are seeing is not defined by the word trend.
tendency: a general direction in which something tends to move; “the shoreward tendency of the current”; "the trend of the stock market"
course: general line of orientation; “the river takes a southern course”; "the northeastern trend of the coast"
drift: a general tendency to change (as of opinion); “not openly liberal but that is the trend of the book”; "a broad movement of the electorate to the right"
swerve: turn sharply; change direction abruptly; “The car cut to the left at the intersection”; "The motorbike veered to the right"
vogue: the popular taste at a given time; “leather is the latest vogue”; “he followed current trends”; “the 1920s had a style of their own”
So, trends do exist, but the problem is they are completely dependant upon who is veiwing them and at what TF and zoom level, hence instead of 10 bull candles in a row all with no wicks at all, you have a mix of bull and bear candles leading towards a general direction. which is defined as a trend. for every winner there is a loser, if everyone could simply set a guideline such as “Weekly TF zoom level 3 defines the trend” etc. then im sure we would all trade with the trend. but if we all did that we would be unable to trade wouldnt we? if everyone is selling whos there to buy? (in the real market today the people buying against what you would consider the overall trend are the ones who are viewing a different trend, or maybe the PSAR, MA, Bollinger, Stochastics people)
i think you are being toooo literal in the meaning of trend. if you read the copy and pasted definitions of trend you will notice the words “generally” and “tendancy” not the words “definite” “distinct” or “pronounced”.
if you think the definition of trend is something sure fire, without a doubt, then of course a market “trend” doesnt exist. but if you use the actual meaning “tendancy” and “generally” then you can easily spot a trend in the market, while it may be clear to you it may not be to others who are perhaps view a larger/smaller TF and different zoom levels.
besides why should you care if people believe in trends? aslong as your making money, and probably some off of what you consider “myths” you have nothing to complain about, infact your probably better off letting people believe in “myths” so you can buy when theyre selling and vice versa, of course others are probably better off letting you think theyre myths while they drain your account
sorry if this post is kinda rambled around i wrote it in only a few minutes inbetween classes.
There would be no point in having a forum if that were the prevailing attitude of traders.
Perhaps you would be so kind as to ask Tymen1 the exact same question.
Now you are getting warmer.
Price doesn’t look different, where price was looks differently. Let us be precise in our use of language.
Talking about supply and demand is getting ahead of the game, but that’s OK.
[I]
Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction? [/I]
Only to a statistical point. If price is above the weekly open, it may be more likely to go up if it has not gone past a certain point. Once prices reaches a certain distance from the weekly open it is more likely to regress than continue according to statistics. Please keep in mind probabilities can only be assigned where the outcomes are limited like coin flipping and craps and there is a defined beginning and end to the event.
But we are getting away from the topic which is to show “trend” is a myth and only exists in the mind of a trader.
That is exactly what I am saying. “Trend” exists only in the mind of the trader. “Trend” is relative. Therefore, “trend” is conceptual in nature and does not exist in reality. If “trend” existed, then a precise definition would be given and all would agree what the “trend” is.
What we can agree on is that if we pick two points in time, we can observe what the price was at each point in time, and whether price is up or down when you compare the most recent price to the past price.