The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED

[jaquille]

[B]The finest in trend trading - DEBUNKED[/B]

The purpose of this thread is to show that TREND is a concept that only exists in the mind of the trader and therefore a MYTH.

Newbies should be cautious in believing what they read about trend because it sounds good to the untrained mind.

History is filled with examples of the masses believing that which is not true. Religions would still have us believing the world is flat and is the center of the universe.

If old beliefs were allowed to persist you would not be reading this because the computer and its components could not have been invented.

TOUGH QUESTIONS aka
TRADING METHOD B.S. DETECTOR

What is the expectancy of this system or method?

What is the average number of wins percentage?

What is the average win size?

What is the average number of losses percentage?

What is the average loss size?

What was the biggest win?

What was the biggest loss?

What was the longest win streak?

What was the longest loss streak?

How many trades were used to obtain the answers to the above questions?

Were the trades executed with real money?

When did you personally start trading this system or method?

Have [B]ANY [/B]of these questions been answered in “The finest in trend trading” thread?

If not, THINK ABOUT IT. What do you smell?

[jaquille]

… You are holding on to the myth of “support” and “resistance”. They only exist in the mind of the trader. The weekly open is the WEEKLY OPEN. You can call it by any other name but it will still be the WEEKLY OPEN. There is no opinion. It is not debatable. That is the crux of the issue.

As xtraction pointed out, the terms “support” and “resistance” as well as “trend” are based on opinion thus debatable.

[jaquille]

Data compression has no effect on price. 4h, 1h, 15m and 5m are all the same. The only difference is how much time is “stuffed” into each candle. I prefer to wait for price to go “on sale”. That is when you can enter at the best time to collect most of the range you mentioned.

People change their minds as to what price is “cheap” vs. what price is “expensive”. That is the reason you see price oscillate. The chart above shows that shift in perception.

Your monitor is only so wide. What you see is dependent on what time frame you look at and the candle width.

Above: M1 chart with wide candles

Below: M1 chart with narrow candles

[jaquille]

Above: W1 chart with wide candles

Below: W1 chart with narrow candles

[jaquille]

Look closely at the M1 and W1 narrow candle charts. Could you tell which is which if they were not labeled?

[jaquille]

Do you know anything about quantum physics?

Is light a wave or particle?

What does quantum physics have to do with trading?

Quantum physics tells us what we don’t know when it comes to trading.

In quantum mechanics, the Heisenberg uncertainty principle states that certain pairs of physical properties, like position and momentum, cannot both be known to arbitrary precision. That is, the more precisely one property is known, the less precisely the other can be known. This statement has been interpreted in two different ways. According to Heisenberg its meaning is that it is impossible to determine simultaneously both the position and velocity of an electron or any other particle with any great degree of accuracy or certainty. According to others (for instance Ballentine)[1] this is not a statement about the limitations of a researcher’s ability to measure particular quantities of a system, but it is a statement about the nature of the system itself as described by the equations of quantum mechanics.

Think about this… the next tick could be the start of a reversal. How would you know? When would you know?

[jaquille]

This about this…

Since traders have been discussing “trend” for decades, if not centuries, then why do so many traders, including the best and brightest minds at hedge funds, banks and mutual funds, lose?

If “trend” existed then all one has to do to make money is to trade with the trend. Shouldn’t that be simple to do?

[Master_Tang]

Just pointing out the obvious, then I’ll go away.

You may have been better served allowing a complete theory to be presented before trying to disprove it.

Debate or not, this is a little more than antagonistic, no matter how factual the results.

Sometimes it’s not about the content, it’s the presentation that begats the controversy.

[ruilima22]

now this is a strong opinion thread:D

i think there are trends… because they are in the charts everytime i look at them.

you´re trying to prove that the clouds in the sky are not clouds and clouds don´t exists… they are only water in gas form…

[jaquille]

Just pointing out the obvious, then I’ll go away.

You may have been better served allowing a complete theory to be presented before trying to disprove it.

Debate or not, this is a little more than antagonistic, no matter how factual the results.

Sometimes it’s not about the content, it’s the presentation that begats the controversy.

Hasn’t there been enough writting about “trend” already?

Antagonistic? Why not educational? Scientists perform rigorous testing to disprove their theories. And sometimes the results that scientist produce are very controversial.

I am not posting in Tymen’s thread so there should not be a problem. In academia there are plenty of professors proving each other wrong all the time. That’s how education advances.

[TalonD]

A fellow physics nut? Things get tricky down at the Plank scale don’t they!

[jaquille]

A fellow physics nut? Things get trick down at the Plank scale don’t they!

They certainly do.

How to Teach Physics to Your Dog

[jaquille]

now this is a strong opinion thread:D

i think there are trends… because they are in the charts everytime i look at them.

you´re trying to prove that the clouds in the sky are not clouds and clouds don´t exists… they are only water in gas form…

You’re analogy is slightly off target… you may see George Washington or a poodle head in the sky. But it’s only the clouds which are random water molecules.

I am showing that trend exists only in the mind of the trader.

What you see as trend is your opinion which may be different from what another traders sees when they look at the same chart at the same time. It’s all relative, as Einstein proved. It is based on the observer.

[ruilima22]

if there are no trends how should we trade??

because i trade always against the trend and i know a lot of traders trade with the trend.

what are the other options?

[ruilima22]

You’re analogy is slightly off target… you may see George Washington or a poodle head in the sky. But it’s only the clouds which are random water molecules.

I am showing that trend exists only in the mind of the trader.

What you see as trend is your opinion which may be different from what another traders sees when they look at the same chart at the same time. It’s all relative, as Einstein proved. It is based on the observer.

i agree with that: a trend only exists in the mind of a trader.

but is the ability of see the trends in our minds useless?!?!? or bad in any way???

[Master_Tang]

Hasn’t there been enough writting about “trend” already?

Antagonistic? Why not educational? Scientists perform rigorous testing to disprove their theories. And sometimes the results that scientist produce are very controversial.

I am not posting in Tymen’s thread so there should not be a problem. In academia there are plenty of professors proving each other wrong all the time. That’s how education advances.

Correct.

They DO try to disprove theories. However, there are usually COMPLETE theories to disprove.

A bit premature here is all I was saying.

Carry on.

Should be entertaining if nothing else.

I’ll get a 12 pack, and sit over here in the grass to watch the inevitable fireworks:p

[jaquille]

if there are no trends how should we trade??

because i trade always against the trend and i know a lot of traders trade with the trend.

what are the other options?

How should we trade? Profitably!

Seriously, one should trade according to their plan.

[system]

if there are no trends how should we trade??

because i trade always against the trend and i know a lot of traders trade with the trend.

what are the other options?

Supply & demand does not recognize trend.

It gives a sh*t about trend & it’s intellectual postering by people who get a kick out of it.

Supply & demand is interested in price & not trend.

One overwhelms the other;
price will go up & go down regardless of TF used.

I can trade supply & demand on any TF from Tick to 1 Month.

[TalonD]

I can see that price may look different at different time frames and different levels of magnification. So my question is this. If you look at some time frame like daily, and price has clearly headed down or up. either one. Then doesn’t that mean that there has been (notice the past tense) some economic or supply & demand pressure that has given it a bias in that direction? Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction? I’m assuming your answer is going to be no, but I’d like to know why?

[system]

I can see that price may look different at different time frames and different levels of magnification.

I don’t even need a TF to trade supply & demand.
OHLC in an excel sheet is more than enough.

So my question is this. If you look at some time frame like daily, and price has clearly headed down or up. either one. Then doesn’t that mean that there has been (notice the past tense) some economic or supply & demand pressure that has given it a bias in that direction?

That’s what supply & demand does to price of a product.

What’s the product that is bought & sold in the FX market [pick your market]?

In FX the product is money.

That product money is no different from the product bread in a corner store because it has the same supply & demand dynamics.

Wouldn’t the higher probability bet be that it would have a tendency to continue in that direction?

I don’t know.
Why?
Because I don’t know what price [tag] is shown.
Without price [tag] I can’t tell.
And price [tag] is the same everywhere from Tick to 1 Month TF.

Just find a TF to trade.