In this case the mid BB is very much in agreement with us and after entry the price action not only touches the opposite BB, but also walks the BB.
The TP1 is set at the 1st touch and TP2 is set at the end of the walk.
After that the price action will leave the BB and go off into another direction.
This 4th type is named O - BB. …Outer to Bollinger Band walk on the opposite BB.
This price action is shown in blue.
We have seen this one before.
But now it is so simple to trade!!
Enter short using a CBL at the grey candle on the BB just in front of the blue square.
Watch the price action.
Note that the mid BB is against the trade direction and set TP1 at the mid BB.
TP2 is set at point P, but we do not expect to get it.
We have a type OM trade..
After hitting TP1, we set the stop loss to break even.
To our surprise and joy, the price action goes on to TP2 on the opposite BB and we close our trade there.
We enter long using a CBL at the blue square (more details on this later).
Watch the price action.
Note that the mid BB is against the trade direction and set TP1 at the mid BB.
TP2 is set at point P, but we do not expect to get it.
We have a type OM trade…
After hitting TP1, we set the stop loss to break even.
To our surprise and joy, the price action goes on to TP2 on the opposite BB and we close our trade there.
We are not concerned with the exact location of P.
Point P is where the price action touches the opposite Bollinger Bands, wherever that is.
When the price action hits the opposite BB we close the trade.
In BB bubbles the position of P is remarkably consistent.
It is nearly always placed at the point where the bubble finishes and the squeeze starts!!
Could someone kindly explain how the CBL is got in this example? Maybe I misunderstood but starting the CBL calc from the highest wick candle at the top of the uptrend, down, left, down, left, down would put the CBL much further down in price than the grey candle indicated?
to set TP1 we need to know the point where the price action will cross the middle band ) that point is not available at the time price action is in the blue square
I will go into the details of our modified CBL shortly but first an exercise to become familiar with OM price action type trades…
[B]EXERCISE[/B]
Go to your favourite currency pair and choose your favourite timeframe.
Scroll thro all the price action on it from start to finish.
Count how many BB bubbles you can see (both long and short trades).
Note in each one the point where the opposite BB contracts and the price action ceases walking the BB.
This will be our approximate entry point.
Follow the price action from there to the mid BB.
[B][U]Questions[/U][/B]
In how many cases was the mid BB against the price direction.
Calculate this as a percentage of the total you have observed.
In how many cases did the price action ignore the mid BB and go straight thro to the opposite BB.
Calculate this as a percentage of the total you have observed.
In how many cases did point P (the TP2 point) appear at the junction of the bubble end and the squeeze beginning.
Calculate this as a percentage of the total you have observed.
There is so much detail that I need to post that I sometimes forget certain matters in the sequence.
It is easy on a blackboard but here on the internet it can be very difficult to get all that I am trying to say across in a satisfactory manner. :o :o :o
OK, enough of that!!
I will indeed go into great detail on the modified CBL.
[B]but it is important that right now, the exercise be attempted!![/B]
Ok, of the 25 bubbles I checked on the 1hr EUD/USD:
mid BB against PA = 88%
Mid BB ignored and through to opposite BB = 64%
TP2 appeared at a junction of bubble/squeeze = 16%
Stopped out (based on a guess of where the new CBL has us entering) = 16%
Of course, these figures are based on my interpretations, and may not reflect the results someone else would get from looking at the same chart. Also made no attempt to correlate to a long term trend.
I am not ready to post numbers yet because I can see that this exercise is causing me to change my mind-set. I’m having to twist my mind around to absorb this.
But I can see that the price action almost always goes against the middle BB. In the cases where they go together I’m having to re-evaluate whether it is a bubble or a sausage.
GBP/USD 30 min since March 1:
28 bubbles
33 times PA stops walking the BB
PA against the mid BB - 31 times
Hit mid BB - 26 times
Hit opposing BB - 14 times
TP2 in point P - 4 times
In the 2 times that PA was in yhe same direction of the mid BB,it didn’t hit the BB.
My wife, like you, is a teacher and I have to say that teaching is a much more important task than being a dentist! I really mean that.
In fact, imho there is no job more important than teaching. The skill and dedication of teachers everywhere decide the future fate of the world. Dentists do not. Simple as that.