I was thinking that price really isn’t a normal distribution. It has much longer tails than a true normal distribution would have. That’s because you get a few price spikes, like the EUR/USD opening gap this week, and you get some crashes like when there is some really bad news coming out. Those outlyers don’t exist in a normal distribution and they make really long tails on the actual curve. Suppose Tymen has discovered a way to detect when price is operating outside a normal distribution and fouind a way to take advantage of that? Just a really wild guess, but hey, I’m a speculator.
Hi RenaLa,
The system Tymen is introducing us to works on any TF, according to his previous posts. This should mean that you can choose to operate on a TF that you are confortable with and one that may mean that you don't have to hold trades whilst you are asleep.Hi RenaLa
another useful trait for a trader is insomnia 
Looks like you would have been stopped out on the first close below the bottom fib line on the first set of fibs. With 2 closes below the fib line you would have wanted to exit the trade.
If you would have correctly started drawing your fib line at the very bottom of candle where you started you count back you will see that the bottom fib line is lower than those candles and you would not have been stopped out.
Try this one. You can turn off the alert for LWMA if you want.
John
Waiting is not the goal, but may be a necessary stage in attaining the goal. We wait for what is worth waiting for, and in the process learn patience. (Prayer by Philip Yancey)
Bollinger + LWMA crossover alert.zip (9.58 KB)
Back again, after an interesting day.
Now I am going to firmly introduce you to the [B]Bollinger DNA system.[/B]
In order to do that I have to take care of knowledge assumed, that is, to make sure everyone is on the same footing.
I am sure that most people know about DNA, but I will just revise the biological basics here so that no one misses out.
Please understand that I am not trying to insult your intelligence.
I just want to make sure that every reader here has the same background knowledge. You never know when someone misses out.
[B]Tonymand [/B]and [B]o990l6mh[/B], both [B]Honorary FX Members[/B] and medical people, will of course know much more about this than I will ever know.
I am only a school teacher!! :o :o
[B]Anyway, the background for starters…[/B]
Was great fun, spot on teacher :D!
Im the emotional trader, great @ spotting entrys, much thanks to yourself hehe:D! Not so good at managing trades:o!
The biggest advantage one such as myself can easily/quickly/ obtaion is a multiple lot system. Getting some profit and letting it run, trading a 1 lot is just a nervous wreck waiting to happen hehe:D!
Looking forward to next lesson session!
This diagram, taken from an ancient secret text, shows the 2 strands of nucleotides making the “uprights” of the “ladder” >>>
The deoxyribose (pentagons) and phosphate groups (dots) make up these uprights while the ladder “rungs” are made up of 4 nitrogen bases.
These bases are shown in the next ancient manuscript >>>
There are 4 bases linked in twin pairs - adenine, guanine, cytosine and thymine.
Lets now look at how this is similar to the Bollinger DNA system…
The nucleotide uprights of our ladder are two uprights.
They are the two outer bands of the Bollinger bands.
The rungs, the nitrogen bases, are the price action elements as the price oscillates between touching the BB.
This idea may not be so original, but the sheer power comes in when we use a 2 contract strategy to trade with. 
We have many trades, in any timeframe, with an extraordinary degree of reliability in making a profit.
Lets go into the method in detail by looking at the 4 types of price action that are contained within the Bollinger bands.
I will use diagrams to outline these and use colours to distinguish between the 4 types of price action.
May be you are right PTB, at the some time I draw fib lines from the bottom to the top of each price movement. I consider the movement from the very bottom of candle where I started my count back as a separate movement inside of sideway
Also I have noticed that usually the first retrace in the trend very deep and it can reach 61.8% level or deeper. I add the amount in the first retrace at the level of 61.8% (I wouldn’t use stop at first retrace)
Can anyone share with me your experience and what time frame I can trade if I would like to stay in the trade like 3-5 days and how to take care of the trade while you away of the computer?
Not only a Forex education but a biology education thrown in FOC!
I guess we’re getting into the meat right now then…
This is a basic first diagram showing what we are trying to do >>>
Ignoring the mid BB for the moment, we are trying to enter a trade at one of the outer BB and exit when the trade reaches the other outer BB.
Thus we are trading the rungs (the 4 bases) of the ladder (the outer BB which is the nucleotide chain).
The principle is that simple.
There will be lots of trades, they are short in duration (unless you are trading the daily) and with the method explained below, become very profitable.
Here is the first of the 4 types of price actions >>>>
The trade is entered at the lower BB and exited at the upper BB.
Note that the mid BB is going in the same direction as the price action when we are halfway thro the trade.
The first type going the other way >>>
Note again that the mid BB and price action are going in the same direction when halfway thro the trade.
Not right now RenaLa - we are in the middle of the most important stuff on this thread. 
Please hold off!! :mad:
sorry, i didnt mean to interrupt you, its my slow typing and phone call
didnt see that you have started lesson
Lets now have a look at something which generates the second and third types of trade >>>
In this case we see that the mid BB and the price action are going in opposite directions.
After entry we reach the halfway mark and note that the mid BB is going in the opposite direction.
Therefore, we set our TP1 at the mid BB and the TP2 at the other outer band.
With the mid BB in opposition, we will at least hit TP1 but it is unlikely that we will hit TP2 at the other outer band.
After TP1 is hit, we set our stop loss to the entry point to break even.
(Note that the entries are done via a CBL - a modified one!!)
Sometimes we get lucky and the price action continues onward past the mid BB to hit the opposite outer band and give us a full trade profit of TP2 as well.
But mostly it is not like that and we are content with TP1 only.
Now examine further…
I have shown the rest of the price action in red in its unsuccessful format.
It does not go to the opposite outer band but instead retraces to the break even point.
Sometimes it goes right back to where it started - the original outer BB. (point A).
Sometimes it retraces to break even and then goes on to the opposite band (which we wanted in the first place), but it is too late then. (point B).
The break even point has been hit and the trade is over.
Note that the [U]green [/U]price action is [U]type 2[/U] and gets a TP1 PROFIT ONLY.
The [U]red [/U]price action is NOT TRADED.
The red price action is [U]type 3[/U] and is a LOSS price action.
Here is the 2nd version of the red type trade that you will cme across.
This one is responsible for any losses in this method!! :eek: >>>
The trade starts out but the price action fails to reach even the mid BB.
It retraces before the mid BB, thus nulifying hopes of hitting even TP1 when placed on the mid BB.
This price action could retrace right back to the original BB or do some retracing, then go on anyway to the opposite BB.
When we see a price action failure to reach even the mid BB, we apply Fibonacci with the end points being entry and point P.
The blue line is 38.2%.
If the price action goes thro this blue line, close and post a loss.
It does not matter whether the price action returns to the original BB or the opposite BB - we have a loss and that’s that!!
However…
If the price action fails to reach the mid BB and the price action does not go thro the Fibonacci 38.2% blue line, we then stay in the trade!!
The price action will most likely reach the mid BB (TP1 ONLY).
(Shown in pink)
Sometimes it may even pass thro the mid BB (TP) and then reach the opposite BB (TP2). (pink trade).
I will now name these 3 price action types so far so that we can refer to them.
-
[B]O - O [/B] …[B]Outer to outer BB.[/B] This is a simple trade where the mid BB is in agreement with our trade direction. The TP1 and TP2 are both set on the opposite BB.
(This price action is shown in pink). -
[B]O - M[/B] …[B]Outer to mid BB[/B]. The TP1 is set at the mid BB because the mid BB is against our trade direction and there is a very high probability that the TP2 will not be met but break even instead.
(This price action is shown in green). -
[B]R - O [/B] … [B]Retrace back to Outer.[/B].
In this case price action can do 2 things…
a) Starts from the mid BB and returns back either to the original BB or the opposite band, we do not know which. (untradeable).
b) Starts out as an innocent looking trade but fails to reach the mid BB.
Trouble from hereon.
The price action retraces and a Fibonacci test is applied.
If the price action goes thro - [B]we post a loss.[/B] :eek:
If the price action [U]does not[/U] goes thro - we stay in the trade.
[B]This price action type is untradeable and this is where losses occur. :eek: :eek:
(This price action is shown in red).[/B]
The 4th type of price action is very simple and will now be shown.