Thanks again for the further advancement of this strat and hope the preperations are going well for the move.
I have to point out an obvious problem with this trade. I'm sure you are aware of it. The problem being.....it doesn't make any money!
TP1 is the middle BB, this looks to be around about level with the entry, maybe a pip or two lower if you're lucky. You'd certainly be lucky to cover your spread, let alone turn a profit. TP2 is the far BB. This is never reached as the price reverses and takes out you new SL at BE. A great deal of work is put in setting the trade up for absolutely no profit.......unless i'm VERY mistaken.
Does there not become a point of no return where you entry is so near to your TP1 that the entry is null and void as a consequence?
Keep up the good work, I really hope you have something tradeable before your Babypips sabbatical!
Hey Tymen, I stumbled across a special case (which is probably more common than I think) when familiarising myself with the strategyâŚ
In the image, I have marked the short CBL in green and the actual entry as pink.
At the bottom of the bubble, I have also marked the opposite CBL in green for 2 different candles.
Even though the first CBL takes place before the BB contracts, for the sake of this example, lets just assume that it happens after the contractionâŚ
If another candle occurs after the first extreme candle, which has the exact same low as the previous extreme candle, will it still be considered valid, given that it produces a better CBL entry/exit?
Notice in the image that the second exit CBL offers a better exit, but its low is exactly the same as the previous extreme candle (assuming the first extreme candle happens after the contraction), am I right in thinking that the candle which offers the better CBL will be chosen?
phew! just managed to catch up with the thread (took 3 weeks of eager reading to cover all 234 pages)
very informative and well written. very nice job Tymen!
since I covered plenty in a relatively short amount of time, I got loads of questions.
[B]I welcome all of Tymenâs students to participate and answer[/B] me because firstly, I think itâs a good way for us all to learn, and secondly I donât wanna wear him down:)
[U][B]now for the questions[/B][/U]:
[U]first, please correct\approve the 2 following statements[/U]:
the O-O trades exist only in the movies
I found these to be extremely rare. the rare occasions in which PA is on
upper band and midband is pointing down (or vice versa) usually ends up
as O-BBs, hence O-O trades are mostly uncommon. [I]-correct\approve[/I]
weâre never going with the current trend (unless O-O). thatâs what CBL is
based on. weâre also looking to enter only on the BB bubble\saussage end,
which means weâre going for a retracement(=O-M) and hoping for a
reversal(=O-BB). [I]-correct\apprive[/I]
â> I know thereâs something wrong with my concept. feel free to correct me!
[U]questions[/U]:
Q1) if we caught what seems to be a nice O-BB developing, we TP1 when PA 'touchesâ
mid BB? or only when it [U]closes [/U]above it (when going long)?
Q2) what about TP2? do we quit when it starts contracting? if itâs a saussage
in the making wouldnât this mean the system make us aim for the little
retracements instead of the major trend? what about the fib to allow
profits run? did we put this idea behind?
I think i finally found the words to describe whatâs bothering me the most - if weâve got a good idea when a saussage\bubble has came to an end (thus, we enter in the opposing direction), why didnât we trade it in the right direction until that point? I mean, thatâs where most of the money is, isnât it? the major trend? --> [I]this one Iâd really like to hear everyoneâs opinions about.[/I]
hopefully Tymen would eventually give his thoughts on the matter if he feels he should.
probably more questions to come, but thatâs it for now.
Hi IronHeart, I dont think you have any qualified candles for entry/exit yet.
there is no smaller candle then extreme candle with close above of extreme candle/ Its probably sausage case and downtrend is continuing
Please notice that this is my private opinion
Mickey, as I understand it you are correct. Thatâs good since we can scan for bb contractions quickly, then look more carefully to see if we have an entry. Good observation!
I realise that the first CBL doesnât have any qualifying exits (and that itâs not a valid CBL because it occurs before opposite BB contraction) - this is irrelevant.
What Iâm really curious about is, given two candles that have the same extreme low, both being valid extreme candles occurring after the BB contraction, if the second candle offers a superior CBL, is that the one that is used?
hi RenaLa.
Iâm not sure if I would have done the same.
the reasons are:
the gap on that mondayâs opening was agressive, and uncommon. Tymen hasnât discussed matters of news and gaps, but I think he did mention something about not trading at specific days\hours for what I beleive to be a similar reason (similar market conditions) - things can go crazy
if we really had a valid BB break, meaning we can start looking for CBLs after contraction, I donât see why u didnât apply a new CBL on candle 4, which would never be triggered.
but then again Iâve just recently joined this thread so what do I know
As I understand it, every valid entry will have an opposite bb contraction, but of course every contraction isnât a valad entry, since all the other rules must be met as well. I was just pointing out itâs easy to see contractions and then look more closely to see if the other rules are met. Sorry if I wasnât clear on what I meant.
Yes, I believe you are right there. Another rule Tymen added is the CBL entry line must be penetrated by price moving in the direction of the trade. That candle must close as I understand it, then entry is on the open of the next candle. Someone correct me if Iâm wrong. It almost happened once
hmmm on candle 4âs CBL SL may be almost the same, but entry changes dramaticlly.
but since Iâm not 100% positive that in this scenario we DO go for the better entry, what about candle 9? why not CBL that one (if you skipped candle 4)?
Can anyone reply to how they would handle the exit on this beautiful bubble that occurred today USD/CAD 30M? I have labled the candles for easy reference. Also, any thoughts using this system on where to have entered prior to the bubble?
from the past few lessons I liked this idea the most!
the problem is to determine the type of BB at the beginning of PA movement. Earlier, tymen gave the schems of each two types.
You can see the difference at the beginning of the price movement
But it requires exact rules to determine the type of BB at the time when the PA is started its new move
