The finest in trend trading

Great thread tymen1. Thank you. :slight_smile:

Welcome to newcomers [B]RTK [/B](nice avatar!!) and [B]Martyoo[/B]. :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

As you have all noticed, my posting has really slowed down.

This is not because of lack of interest, but rather adjusting to the shock of living rural - confronting paddocks and sheep and legumes and no people at all, instead of normal city life with its fast moving pace and lots of people.

But I shall recover and speed up as the days go on!! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

After all, I do have to get back to my own trading as well.

[B]Thank you for providing the data in your post for me to work from!![/B] :slight_smile: :slight_smile:
It is a real challenge for me to do this properly for the averaging of GFT and also allowing for Fibonacci retracements.

As you have correctly noted, it works best when the trend continues.

Yes, 5 contracts overlapping stand a real possibility of loss if there is a retracement.

In a choppy market it can cause the loss of the pips that could have been won by putting on just 1 or 2 lots with a good stop. So in a choppy or ranging market, other strategies may perform better.

Here is my challenge!!

I developed this strategy while trading futures many years ago.

I understand that scaling in was a product of trading the futures market.

ā€¦ reduce the risk further by letting the first lot run more and then locking the profit with a stop before putting additional lots on.

I will have a look at this data point!!

I donā€™t personally feel comfortable putting lots on faster, as that could lead to a blow-up, but delaying putting the second lot on for a small time to even further reduce risk interests me.

I will consider this also!!

Some math wizards convinced me not long ago that itā€™s better to let all the lots ride so spread is only paid once on each lot.

Not in particular agreement here!!
The muliple contract method that I have advocated also locks in a profit soon after entry.
Locking in profits guards against losing them when a retracement comes along - [U]which it always does!![/U]

I still usually pull the first lot of profit off, but I now let the other 4 ride as was proved to increase profit.

Yes, much better.
Maybe with the 2nd contract as well.
By taking the profits off, we are not exposing our trades to potential retracemets.

Stops have to be trailed or manually adjusted to lock in profit as the trend progresses or a quick reversal can wipe out all profit with so many lots running.

Manually adjusted!!
Trailing stops will get you out of your trade too early!!

With risk to rewards often running from 1:10 to 1:20, itā€™s well worth the effort.

Good to know this!!

Thank you again for all the data herein.

It looks like your approach is more a case of overlapping contracts rather than a full scale in.
A full scale in is very dependent on a solid trend ride as a retracement could easily wipe out everything gained.

I have a question:

Seeing as weā€™re being told BB DNA has nothing to do with bubbles or sausages anymore and all we should be looking at are squeezes, why not just drop down to the lowest TF charts and grab every squeeze trumpet out of them? If the trumpet formation is large enough, we just continue to switch to the higher TFs for as long as each higher TF shows a trumpet formation - or, if the next higher TF does not show a trumpet, until one shows a legitimate TP point (mid boll, opposite boll, etc).

Hello Tymen1,

I have come from the past!.. well page 110 :smiley:
Just couldnā€™t wait to catch up to thank you for all your hard work producing this thread. It really has been a pleasurable couple of days reading and as an FX noob itā€™s been very enlightening. Your teaching method is really first class mate!
So many thanks to you sir and to everyone who has contributed (constructively :)) to this thread.

Cheers
Mastersafe

Right, see you all in a coupla hundred pages :smiley:

I have a similar issueā€¦are we, indeed, looking only at squeezes??

We are looking at not entering on the end of BB walks that result in bubbles and possibly sausages.

I use the term squeeze in a general sense only.

Care to post a chart example (series of charts)?

Thanks for the replyā€¦and welcome backā€¦and I hope you are feeling better.

OK. Using ā€œthe guys and galsā€ (i.e. Rachel, Denise, Robert and Daniel), it is clear, I think, that immediately prior to the opposite BB contraction we have a walk. After the point P (Rachel and Denise) we have a return to what I would classify as a squeeze. Similarly, there comes a point with Robert and Daniel where what I would call a walk comes to an end and, again, we enter a squeeze area.

So, we have the four no-trade areas associated with ā€œthe guys and galsā€ and now another as defined in your first statemnt above. I donā€™t have any example of a chart where the END of a walk RESULTS in either a bubble or a sausage. When you get a chance, would you please post an example or two of that kind of a situation?

Thank youā€¦I know I am adding to your workload and I am sorry that I havenā€™t learned enough yet (will I ever?)

I was concerned the move may have worn you down. Are you feeling well Tymen? Have you attended the local church and met some people? Perhaps you could invite some locals over for a little house warming party to relieve the isolation? So what if they break your stuff and spill things on the floor? Thatā€™s no different than my kids visiting. With kids and grand kids running through my house in a blur at all hours, I sometimes long for a bit of isolation. But I would also probably be seeking out others very soon to relieve the isolation I sought. Hope you are settled in well soon. Take care.

I just figured your fingers got coldā€¦

:stuck_out_tongue:

:smiley:

You are supported Tymen1!

Put on a couple of sweaters and a cat or two, and you will be fine in a minute!

Red

Thank you to [B]Red Hunter, Master Tang[/B] and especially [B]Graviton [/B]for your concerns about me.

Yes, [B]Graviton[/B], I am trying as much as possible to socialise now that my furniture has found its correct place - at first it looked like a jumble sale!!
I found church people and have made friends with all the neighbours and spoken to many others.
Everybody knows everybody in these country towns!! :smiley:

Still, the isolation from the city is hard for me - I think I am really a city person after all and no country town would suit me.

Even my cat, Sweetie, got a shock!! :smiley:

It is simply going to take time to adjust - one big benefit - no more major interuptions, so I can now get on with the work!!

Now to that magnificent piece of information you have just given, [B]Graviton [/B]- [U]it is just what I was needing.[/U]!!

Stops can be trailed up before new lots are put on, so best case there is no possibility of losing anything beyond the beginning stop loss on the first lot.

That is going straight into the formula I devise. :wink:

In Forex slippage is little if any, so there is no reason to close the lots with profit, we can just keep moving stops to lock in profit and only put lots on once, thereby only paying spread one time. I think this is a major advantage in Forex.

I was going to devise the formula to take out the profits, but now that you have said this, I will revise the matter and take your advice. :slight_smile:

I manually adjust to skip my stop from just underneath one higher low to the next in an uptrend. ā€¦
Still, the best way Iā€™ve found is to manually trail beneath higher lows for an uptrend.

This is the approach I think I will use - Darryl Guppy uses a similar method. :wink:

It turns out this is harder for me to explain than to do in practice.

[B]You have explained well[/B] - I understand perfectly having read the principle in Darryl Guppyā€™s book. :slight_smile:

I think you may be a little confused here, especially since I am using the term squeeze.
I realise now that maybe that term was not the best choice.
In any case this is the ruleā€¦

Trade any area except the ones shown below >>>

This is true not only for Rachel, pictured here, but also for her inverse, namely Denise.

It follows that avoiding these areas for a BB bubble will automatically exclude the BB sausages because to get a sausage you must first start with a bubble.

Now everything else can be traded - let me pick you a random example in the next post.

Let me now give a very random example for Xelnar, and also for others who appear slightly confused.

For no particular reason I chose the followingā€¦

This is the very latest from EUR/USD >>>

This chart is somewhat scaled out so that we can see a ā€œsqueezeā€ developing into a BB bubble, then another squeeze developing into a BB sausage, then a further squeeze.

The orange areas are the retracements from the BB walks and these orange areas are the NO TRADE areas.

The blue area is where the 2nd pattern (a bubble), turns into a sausage with the price action leaving the upper BB, but instead of going down, it reverses and goes up again.
The fact that the price action does not touch the upper BB again is irrelevant.

Lets now look at the trades in detail.

We first go to trade A by looking in detail at the squeeze area at the entry.

NEXT POST.

OK, here it is >>>

The 1st extreme candle (2 candle CBL) entry is a waste of time (too close to mid BB).

The 2nd entry is much better.
It is a short entry resulting in an OBB price action with a BB walk on the lower band.

Lets have a look at that BB walk >>>

The exit for this BB walk is given by the simple exit method where we exit on the first candle away from the BB.

The orange area in the oval is the retracement from this BB bubble and is a NO TRADE area.
We avoid this area!! :cool: :cool:

We now go to the squeeze in between the bubble and sausage >>>

The extreme candle A is useless to us but extreme candle B gives a long entry.
Note the 2 candle CBL entry method.

It takes a while before the entry is taken.
You see here the power of the CBL method in avoiding retracements and getting an entry only when the price action shows momentum.

Now lets go to the final part of this trade on the chart >>>

The trade goes long from the doji where it entered.
We exit at the first candle that is away from the BB as shown.

Up until this point the pattern is a BB bubble.
However, the price action soon goes above the exit candle and continues upwards thus converting to a BB sausage.
As mentioned before, the lack of touching the BB is irrelevant.

The BB walk then ends properly and a retracement starts.
This is the NO TRADE area shown in the orange square.

After that, all is well to trade again.