Hey folks, just a quick note to say the drama has passed and I am (obviously) un-banned. The lesson from all this? Never mind linking to anything store-related (which I did not do) - as illustrated in my case you cannot even MENTION there is [I]some[/I] store [I]somewhere [/I]else on the web here on BP forums. That alone will get you banned. Thanks to those who stood up for me; I’ll be even more cautious in the future.
Dodge,
Vimeo said there was an issue with converting the video. 
And now it says I have to log into to see the private video.
One problem there, Vimeo is not allowing new users right now.
This is what happens when I try to post things while I’m busy at work :o
The video is now public.
That’ll learn ya.
Glad to have you back 
Pete, the doji you have identified makes a great teachable moment. In candlestick trading, a doji with a long pin bottom like the one shown is a strong reversal signal. So when I see one of these, I’m already looking for a reversal. All I need is an excuse to enter the other way.
You can enter on a simple one candle strategy as you have it marked, even though the next candle just can’t have a smaller body. A more conservative strategy though and the one I would recommend is to use the 2 candle entry, which would put the entry just a little above where you have it marked. Either will work most of the time, but with the 2 candle entry, you get a little more assurance that the price really has reversed.
So instead of being afraid to take the reversal after a strong move, you should jump at it as a very high probability trade, especially when candlestick rules say that a long pin doji is a strong reversal signal. Essentially, for me at least, that is confirming information. It often turns out that the scariest trades that you’d want to skip the most are the very few that makes you the most pips. If you skip those few trades, most systems struggle to break even. So most traders would say, if it meets all the requirements of your trading system, you must trade it or change your system. You can’t pick and chose which ones to take because you are likely to skip the most profitable trades.
As far as stops being so costly, some backtesting has indicated that reducing large stops helps increase profitability. I wouldn’t reduce them much less than 20 or 30 pips, but if you have a very large stop set, say 65 pips, I’d cut it in half to 32 pips. It’s rare that will take you out of a good trade since not many good trades move 32 pips against you right after entry. That’s all just my opinion and others may have good success trading differently.
Of course the fear is that something happens like in this screenshot below:
EUR/USD 1HR
June 4th
Things don’t always workout when in a no-trade zone
Edit: Looking back at the the other chart, I see the bottom wick isn’t anywhere near as long in my examples. Point taken :o
Yes, and another good reason to use the two candle entry in this situation. A two candle wouldn’t have put you in a bad trade, I don’t believe.
The thing about those “no trade” zones, is that they are risky, as we have all seen. For this reason, I use a 2 candle CBL to increase the probability of an effective entry. Furthermore, I employ the use of the Standard Deviation 1.0 band as a profit target, as suggested by [B]Tymen.[/B] If we look back to that trade, using a 2 candle CBL will prevent us from entering any trades in that region.
Happy pipping to all!
EDIT: I believe Graviton got to it before me
Thanks iron heart, im looking for trades like what you just showed earlier. Greatly increases the probability of success, sometimes i’d do trendlines to define support and resistance area. And hunt down a cbl entry on a lower tf.
I’ll post up charts when i’ve got the time! Thanks for sharing man 
I complitly agree. Also what I wanna say that ‘no-trade zone’ is a zone where new trend (subtrend) starts.
correct?
DodgeV83, you may consider to update your EA to 2cbl entry method :rolleyes:
ps: actually what I have discovered is better enter using 2cbl method on the lower TF and TP 1 and TP2 off the higher TF
[B]TOPIC 16
THE MACRO METHOD[/B]
Here we have the much awaited macro method.
The trading is simple and is a true trend trading method.
However, note a few differences from the BB DNA method…
[B]The win/loss ratio is ordinary.[/B]
So if you have been spoilt by the high win/loss ratio of the DNA method, then you might be in for a shock here.
Do not complain if you see more losing trades - it is a product of the average win/loss ratio.
[B]We need to know the direction of the trend in the higher timeframe.[/B]
This is unlike the DNA method which is a stand alone method.
Once we know the direction of the higher timeframe, we trade in the direction of that timeframe.
As long as the trend continues, you should make a profit.
It is rare that you would just enter at a major trend reversal.
[B]We use a 3 candle countback line.[/B]
This is the original method and tries to ensure that the trend is indeed underway when you entrer.
Using 3 candles may well cause you to enter above the mid BB.
Since we are envisaging a long trend, this does not matter.
It may also generate a long waiting period before entry.
[B]The exit is generated by use of the fibonacci tool instead of the opposite BB.[/B]
Retracements are measured using the Fibonacci tool in your charting program.
It is the size of the retracement that determines whether you exit.
As such very long trades are possible as we stay in a long trend.
[B]In the next post, I will look again at the higher timeframes.[/B]
The win/loss ratio needs no explanation.
The determination of trade direction with regard to timeframes needs good explanation.
Now I have been thro this before but we have new people on board, and revision is a good thing.
[B]So I am going to repeat some very relevant posts here…[/B]
I will take an example from the seaside, since that is where I grew up, and that is what I understand best. 
We will look at and analogy with the waves of the sea in 3 parts, each representing a higher timeframe.
The 1st timeframe is very short - it is the little waves that travel about 1 metre or so back an forth on the shoreline.
They do this every 15 seconds or so, depending on where you are.
The 2nd timeframe is longer - it is the large waves, the largest being every 7th wave.
These waves propel the water in large sweeps back and forth upon the beach.
Finally, there is the 3rd timeframe which is very much longer - 6 hours in fact.
It is the tide, which is generated by the gravity of the moon first, and also by the sun.
The tide sweeps the water back and forth a very long way.
Have a look at the photos of Derby, Western Australia.
Look at the extremes of the tide (the longest timeframe) >>>
I will now use these extremes in a diagram in the next post to try to analyse what we are looking at.
Here is my first diagram >>>
The drawing shows a beach and the sea.
The blue strip shows the sweep of the water - the little waves of about 1 metre in cycle from lowest to highest (peak to peak).
The white area in the blue strip shows the sweep from maximum (high water)
to minimum (low water).
Now lets elaborate on this diagram by introducing the next higher timeframe, the large waves peaking at the 7th wave >>>
The large waves have a trend of their own, going up the beach.
This trend culminates in the 7th wave which sweeps highest up the beach.
However, while these large waves are in progress, the small 1 metre waves are still active, going every 15 seconds or so.
The large waves may take several minutes between them.
So each large wave has a lot of little 1 metre waves superimposed on top of it.
The little waves are shown in the diagram by the white areas in each blue strip.
The white area shows the maximum and minimum height of these little waves.
The blue strips represent the large waves - there are 7 in this diagram.
The 7th wave sweeps highest up the beach as shown in the diagram.
Therefore, there is a “trend” in the large waves.
After the 7th wave, the cycle starts again, the 1st wave being very low.
Now if we were to ENTER on this trend, we would do so at the MINIMUM of the FIRST WAVE.
We would exit on the MAXIMUM of the SEVENTH WAVE.
In doing so, we would be correctly following a trend.
If the time between the 1st and 7th wave is, say 20 minutes, then we would stay in that trend for NO LONGER then 20 minutes.
(if we stayed longer, we would revert back to the 1st wave and destroy our trend).
I will now show the final long trend diagram >>>
Explanation
This diagram appears complex but it is really very simple.
To save space, I have shown every major wave as a single dark blue line.
The red sections are the little waves superimposed on the major waves.
There are 7 major waves forming a trend of going up the beach.
After that there is a retracement and the cycle starts again.
Here we see many cycles because the tide is going out and hence the cycles form a trend of going out.
So…
The red little waves are the very short timeframe. (15 second trend)
The blue major waves are the medium timeframe. (20 minute trend)
The cycles (tide) is the long timeframe. (6 hour trend).
The blue major waves are showing a trend up the beach (7th wave is highest).
This represents going LONG.
The blue major wave cycles (tide) is going out.
This represents going SHORT.
Analysis
If you traded the major wave timeframe (20 min), you would be guided by the tide timeframe (6 hour).
Then you could enter at point B or if you are clever, enter at point C.
Then as the water goes out, point R becomes a retracement point which is expected to happen.
You would then exit at either points D or E or any of the waves after that.
You would be trading SHORT and you would make a profit.
You would stay in the trend for 6 hours.
Now if you traded the little wave timeframe (15 seconds), you would be guided by the major wave timeframe (20 min).
Then you could enter at point B or if you are clever, enter at point A.
You would then exit at point C.
You would be trading LONG and you would make a profit.
You would stay in the trend for 20 minutes.
Finally (not recommended), you could trade the little wave timeframe (15 second) and be guided by the tide timeframe (6 hour).
In that case, you could enter at points A or B, stay in the trade for 6 hours and exit at points D or E.
You would expect strong retracements along the way (point R).
You would be trading SHORT and make a profit.
From this set of diagrams we can set some rules for trading trends…
[B]When choosing a home timeframe to trade with, always choose a timeframe 4X-6X greater to tell you which way to trade.
Stay in the trade for a time equal to the length of the higher timeframe.
To do this we are depending upon the axiom - the trend is your friend.
We assume that the probability of the trend reversing during our trade is low.
If, however, upon entering, the trend in the higher timeframe suddenly reverses, we can expect our stoploss to be hit.[/B]