The finest in trend trading

I thought this might be the case:p

Yes, this is correct!! :slight_smile:

The purpose for me posting a program for the MMACD (which is really a MACD), is that in my program the indicator name is started with AA-…

The idea behind this is to put the MMACD at the very beginning of the list of indicators in your program (the indicators are listed alphabetically).

Secondly, I have cleaned up the zeroline a little in my MMACD.
The one in the GFT program is not so clear.

The normal MACD uses a 9 period SMA to construct the signal line whereas the MMACD uses a 9 period EMA to do it.

Sorry, [B]IronHeart[/B], this is incorrect!! :eek:

The MACD uses EMA’s throughout its program.
The signal line is a 9 period [B]EMA.[/B] (exponential).
The MACD and MMACD are no different from each other in the operation of the signal line.

Tymen,

I’m kind afraid to ask

after we will learned naked trading method, will this metod work ? :slight_smile:
what is the lead ballons? is it other metod?

You are correct here.
The losses can be real killers.

Remember I posted a whole set of coloured charts where the sum total of the losses = >1000 pips loss.

In several of the charts > 200 pips were lost. (daily chart).

This would definitely kill a starter’s confidence - yes!!

I will have more to say about this.

MT4 doesn’t have M20, is M15 ok or do you think that it may produce too many false signals?

You can go down to 15 minute is you like - but not much lower.
The 1 minute timeframe destroys the entire system!!

Yes!!

I have conflict between the signals,
I am in the short trade. Simple exit method tells that I must exit, but MMACD crossover has crossed the zero line (downtrend its 1H eur/gbp)
Which one has more priority Simple exit method or MMACD crossover?
I dont know should I continue to hold my short trade or i must exit?
thanks for anyone advice

Sorry, without you posting a chart, I have no idea what you are referring to!! :confused: :confused:

Your description is about as clear as mud. :stuck_out_tongue:

Correct. :slight_smile:

There’s a custom BB?

I thought it was just a normal BB with period 20?

It is just a normal BB but with an AA in front of the indicator name so that it comes up first in your list of indicators.
The indicator colour is also pre-arranged in pink.

Phone up Jay Pace of Kinetic Securities, Sydney so that he can help you out. :slight_smile:
His number is on the website.

Just allow for time differences when phoning.

Wow!!

That could be a big ask, [B]Merchantprince[/B]. :frowning:

However, no need to worry.
Read my comments to come.

I believe the naked trading method will be just what you are looking for. :slight_smile: :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

I am confused also!! :confused: :confused:

Clear off the unecessary clutter!!
Put on the chart only that which is needed for your question - and what was your question anyway?

You should wait until the MMACD crosses the zeroline, then enter on the very next close of the very next candle.

[U]Do not enter[/U] on the histogram colour change. :eek:
It could get you into trouble with a sudden whipsaw - and a loss.

The signal histogram is a 2nd order mathematical manipulation of the price data.
The further away from the raw action you get, the less reliable the entries. :eek:

Next chart I have the 20m (timing chart) 1h (home chart) 4h (trend chart)
I’m not sure exactly how to tie them all together. The 4h shows an overall down tread and therefore should only look for shorts…but there was
3 long candles on the 4h - is this enough candles on the lower timeframes to be a trend or just a retracement that should not be traded? Wait for the next cross down for a short?

You could use the zig zag indicator to give an overall trend on the 4 hr chart.
Deciding a trend on the higher timeframe can be very tricky sometimes.

Again, wait for my comments to come. :slight_smile:

You are doing very well to stay here, [B]didilut[/B]. :slight_smile: :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Exactly correct!!

I will have more to say about this in the comments ahead!!

I am gonna use your exit strategies with my own system.
It is so simple that I am surprised I never saw it.

Thank you again…

Good for you, [B]nivlek78[/B]. :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

You are welcome to these strategies - I trust you will do well with them!! :slight_smile:

Agreed!! :slight_smile:

I will have more to say in the comments ahead!! :slight_smile:

[B]Here we have a disaster :stuck_out_tongue: >>>[/B]

In this chart, after entering [U]long [/U](on a timing chart), we now encounter some real problems…

The 1st red line shows the red histogram - we need to get out!!

Then a green line - in again…and then almost immediately out again at the next red line.

Then in again (sigh), to trade the bubble.

We get out at the blue box and forfeit the rest of the profit potential to save us from the horrific danger of whipsaws which could kill our profits.

Whats going on here? :confused:

Is this really a trading method, or is it just a mess!!? :frowning:

[B]TOPIC 12
TREND TRADING WITH INDICATORS

FINAL CONCLUSIONS[/B]

So you thought you had a trading system coming eh? :smiley:

Let us have a look at a few important facts.

What makes a successful trading system and a successful trader?

[B]This is possibly the most important post in the entire thread so far!! [/B] :slight_smile:

[B]There are 3 vital aspects to successful trading…[/B]

[B][U]1) Psychology.[/U][/B]

[U]Good psychology[/U] - In this case we try to make our winners go as far as possible so as to make a great risk/reward ratio.

This one approach on its own makes for winning traders!!

We also we make use of set stop losses to cut short any losses we make.

In this way we make strong wins and tiny losses, and so we end up being a winner overall.

[U]Bad psychology [/U]- In this case the trader shuts down a winning trade thinking that he will bag the profits before something happens to them.
The result is a small win.

When the trade starts to lose, the trader forgets about a stop loss and hope the trade will come back.
It may come back but the trader will probably bail out before then upon seeing a huge drawdown and fearing a loss.
Even if the trader sits it out, the trade is a complete waste of time with much time spent in the negative - this could even be days or months!!

Much better to bail out with a stop loss and start a new trade with a new prospect of winning.

Small wins kill trading.
Large losses kill the small wins.

[B]We need big wins and small losses.[/B] :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

Some people claim that forex is no different from roulette.
I do not believe them.

In roulette you deal with totally random outcomes.
In forex you deal with trends.

A random outcome does not allow you to multiply your winnings.
Sooner or later, your winning streak ends and you lose the lot!!

With forex, [U]the trend is your friend.[/U]
As the trend continues, you get to increase your winnings.
You can stop at any time you wish.
You keep your winnings and bail out when the trend ceases.

[B]The 2nd vital aspect to trading…[/B]

[B][U]Money Management[/U][/B]

With money management we employ strategies to improve the odds in our favour.

[U]Besides setting the obvious stop loss[/U], there are other things we do…

  1. Use a 2 contract strategy to improve our trading edge.
    This involves a first small profit, then our final profit.
    [U]We make use of a break even stop loss.[/U]

Read the following if you have not already done so…

http://forums.babypips.com/analyst-arena/12562-using-multiple-lot-positions-improve-trading-fx.html

  1. In addition we move our stop loss along - called a trailing stop loss, or better, [U]a lock in profit.[/U]

These little nick nacks allow us to obtain a profit whereas in a simple straight trade, we may end up losing.

None of these operations are possible in roulette.
In roulette, you place your stake - and wait for the random outcome.

In forex, you have control over how you enter your stake, and you can lock in the profits on the way.
[U]The trend is your friend.[/U]

[B]Finally, the last aspect…[/B]

[B][U]The Trading Method[/U][/B]

The trading method or system is only part of this whole approach, yet far too much emphasis is placed on only this aspect.

It is possible, with very careful money management strategy, to make a profit by using a coin toss to decide whether to enter long or short on a trade at any particular given time.

Then, of course, with a proper method, you greatly increase the probability of making a profit…[U]the trend is your friend[/U]

  • but only if proper psychology and money management are involved.

Now as to indicators - have a read of the following…

Art of Trading - Chris Tate

This is one big lead balloon and clanger I want to drop.

Indicators, being lagging are not the be all and end all of trading.

Looking at the 3 aspects above, and having read the hyperlinks, lets look at our newly derived trading system…

Yes, its made of indicators - and they are lagging and have a reliability of little better than 50%.
Oh dear, what have we gotten in to?!!

[U]Our stop loss is not a fixed stop loss[/U]. We simply do not know how much it is.
If the MMACD entry goes wrong and returns to exit again, we have a loss, but how much?
It could be huge.
We do not know how much beforehand - yet we should know - part of [U]correct money management[/U] is to set a specific stop loss and a specific take profit.

[B]This is no good.[/B] :frowning:

Another problem.
The profits are limited to just the one BB bubble or sausage.
If we go beyond that we risk histogram whipsaws or re-entries that actually make a loss. :eek:

[U]So our profit potential is limited.[/U]
Then there are the endless whipsaws that occur anyway with both the MMACD - giving a loss,
… and then the histogram - giving confusion and endless re-entries that have dubious value.

Therefore, our risk/reward ratio is reduced and our win/loss ratio is well - not too good to inspire great confidence anyway.

Our psychology on this system (letting winners run/cutting losers off) is not working here.
Money management possibilities are not very inspiring.

[B]What have we got?[/B]

An indicator system.
[B]And a system that does not really produce the goods.[/B]

How do I know?
Because I have tested it extensively!!

I don’t like it one bit.
If you do I will produce a PDF for you, but I can promise you that much better things are just around the corner!!

So have I lead you up the garden path…? :stuck_out_tongue:

NO!!

[B]What we have learnt is very valuable.[/B]

The first thing I want to happen with readers here is that your heart, set on anticipation, now sinks.
[B]The lower it sinks, the better.[/B] :smiley: :wink:

Because then you will learn the lesson well - [B]that indicator systems as a whole do not work, or work very poorly at best.[/B]
Reading that last hyperlink should drive this message home.

[B]Now do you still want to trade this trend method using indicators?[/B]

Do you still want me to produce a PDF for it?