So far our “holy roller” is looking good. A good number of hours until close, but I like what I see thus far.
Quick note, I almost never look at charts during the day. But when I singled one out like this, just like you, my mind gravitates towards that one to see how it develops.
So the Holy Roller it is 
that’s cool - - so MG99 - I realize/believe you really do not set a hard stoploss to soon - is there a point in the Holy Roller that you just know you’ve been rolled over? - - for those of us that would not be so daring . … .like back at the 38.2 level? or would that be to ‘tight’ ?
I’m teasing about the name. The 38.2 bounce is sufficient, as that is exactly what’s happening.
If you insist on a stop I would put it well above the high. I’d personally put in a stop if price closed above the high, and the stop would be 10 pips beyond the high of that candle.
This is probably the #1 most important thing I’ve learned from MG thus far. Don’t be afraid to lose a few pips b/c you didn’t get in “perfectly”. Know what happens when you wait just a little longer to confirm direction, losing just a few pips? Your winning % skyrockets, and those few pips you left on the table by waiting just a tad longer are very cheap insurance towards much more profitable trading.
BTW MG, I’m about 120 pips up from Friday to today. Losing bad on my GBP/AUD long(-120), bout to cut them loose, winning on my USD/JPY long(+69) and GBP/USD short(+153).
I know, my point is that I"m more comfortable swing trading than scalping. Scalping just isn’t for me.
Sweet deal. Glad you’re having early success. I’m up a little over 700 pips across 11 pairs right now. I’m on the same GBPAUD loser as you. Down 100 pips on that one. Going to assess at the end of the day what to do with it. Right now I’m not too concerned. I think if it really crashes down today, I’ll throw in a stop loss, but if it doesn’t i will probably let it sit another day before deciding.
Do what you feel is best for you. Nothing wrong with cutting a loser short if you think it’ll stay a loser. I would just caution you to wait for the candle to close.
I decided to hold out for a little longer on GBP/AUD. I know you don’t use indicators, but Ichimoku says it’s about to turn around. As I gain experience, I’ll strive for a barebones chart, but for being a newbie, it works for me.
This is exactly why I wait for price to confirm first. There was a time I would have just taken the trade and now would be hoping it will be able to turn around.
Now this is potentially looking to be the start of a new trend. My bias is still short for the time being. But we’ll see how this develops this week.
And for this, we give thanks! That’s enough to prove to me that it’s worth the wait. I think I’ll be less antsy to jump in before it confirms. Don’t you just love it when you’re trying to make a point and it just lays it out there, plain as day for everyone to see?
Yeah, I’m glad it turned out as it did. Great real time example, to illustrate.
It’s easy to talk about the past, but with this, it’s play by play as the price develops.
What a difference a few hours make. Imaging not waiting to the close and hopping on board when things looked flawless.
Just curious if you look at the EURJPY and still would like to go long?
Lesson learned and I didn’t even have to lose anything! Very good lesson to learn like this instead of losing a bunch of pips to learn it the hard way like most!
This wasn’t much of a retrace at all. And with the length of that candle, it’s clear which direction price wants to go. This is an instance of where I’m comfortable taking a long at the break of this high, with preference of waiting another day.
My bias has been bullish for months now. And it’s paid me handsomely along the way.
Yeah, I didn’t have to lose any either for the sake of teaching others.
Yes, ramack, I’d wait for a daily bar to close above the 100% retracement high of 127.70 first, then place a Buy Stop order at one pip above that bar’s high; however, I see that MasterGunner would (pardon the pun) “pull the trigger” quicker and get long after the up-bar high of about 126.63 is broken – if I understood his reply to you correctly.
Since there’s a little resistance at 127.70, I’ll wait for about another 8+ pips of travel through that then …
MasterGunner,
I ran across the chart above during my evening analysis. It appears similar to your “38.2” bounce pattern, but I’m not sure how you’d contrast this with your CADCHF example (candlesticks, confluence, and all that).
Would you treat this GBPCHF differently – and, if so, why? Thanks!
MasterGunner,
I found another “38.2” bounce candidate (GBPNZD as depicted in the chart above), and have a Sell Stop order placed one pip below the low of the candle(s) that closed below the 23.6 level (@ 1.8686).
Does this mimic what you would do (or have done)? If it differs, in what ways? Thanks!
I would treat it the same. That strong long candle has kept me at bay. Couple that with what was witnessed today on CADCHF. My existing GBPxxx longs are going against me. That’s enough to leave me unsure as it could go either way from what the market sentiment of the other trades are telling me.
I’m waiting till tomorrow.
All,
Maybe we can name the NZDCHF setup depicted in the chart above the “38.2 pounce” – pretty wild (and magnetic – talk about regression to the mean).
Since the trend going into the range-bound candles was bullish, my bias here would be bullish and I’d be looking to put in a Buy Stop order one pip up from the high of a bar that closed above the 23.6% retracement level.
Any comments or contrary opinions?
Too range bound for me. It’s looking too consolidated. I have no bias here. Waiting for a nice break out in one direction or the other.
