I would treat it the same. That strong long candle has kept me at bay. Couple that with what was witnessed today on CADCHF. My existing GBPxxx longs are going against me. That’s enough to leave me unsure as it could go either way from what the market sentiment of the other trades are telling me.
I’m waiting till tomorrow.
All,
Maybe we can name the NZDCHF setup depicted in the chart above the “38.2 pounce” – pretty wild (and magnetic – talk about regression to the mean).
Since the trend going into the range-bound candles was bullish, my bias here would be bullish and I’d be looking to put in a Buy Stop order one pip up from the high of a bar that closed above the 23.6% retracement level.
Any comments or contrary opinions?
Too range bound for me. It’s looking too consolidated. I have no bias here. Waiting for a nice break out in one direction or the other.
MG99, I’m still having problem in understanding your risk management method. If I have a standard account with $5,000, 50:1 leverage and I am using MT4. How much or how many lots should I risk per trade to be in line with your money/risk management method?
You may not be able to do it. I believe it would be .05 lots if I’m running it in my head the right way. Not sure if you can trade that low on MT4?
I am trading .01 (micro) lots with MT4 Oanda…can’t go any lower than that, which would be nano lots I believe. Depends on what the broker makes available and what account you setup. Once I had a real mini account and couldn’t trade micro lots because I didn’t setup a micro account…but I could trade standard lots.
Dear MG,
thank you for answering my questions earlier.
start using your methodology. so far in general good. But have problem with GU. I open yesterday long position when price was on 1,5809 and still waiting turn, but it goes deeper and deeper. What would be your advise, to keep waiting turn or close?
thanks in advance.
Beginer
My bias for GBPUSD is bearish. I wouldn’t be taking any long positions on this pair right now.
Look for bias first. Only trade in same direction as your bias. Don’t just rely on candlesticks alone.
I was long last week on USD/JPY until I got stopped out on the huge dip it took after brief consolidation just below 94.00. My bias for this pair was still long and once it showed me it was still bullish by breaking through the 94.00 resistance, I jumped back in. I just don’t see much that will contain it in a range for an extended period of time right now let alone a reversal, because when it jumps, it usually takes out 100+ pips in a day and it’s done that every couple of days for a while now. This time, I’m going to step out of my comfort zone try to be a little more MG-like (JCSRAR) and let it run for a while without a stop to seal in profits if it keeps going like I did last time, and see where it goes. What do you think about that? Do you still see it long, or do you think it’s about run it’s course?
You’re asking me to predict the market. I take it one day at a time. My bias is still long. And I’m still currently long and up 250 and some odd pips.
Hi MG,
Thank you for your thread, it is really inspiring.
You keep warning to wait for the candle to close. Why is it so important? We don’t even trade in the same timezone.
Do you suggest your timezone (New York time if I get it correctly) is best?
Thanks for your clarification 
Happy pips
Look at the two charts. Which one looks tradable?
Both are on the same day. One had the candlestick progress during the day, while the other is minutes before the close.
See the difference? A closed candle tells the entire story for the day.
You don’t have to trade NY close, trade the close of whatever is comfortable to you I believe some trading platforms even allow you to customize the close.
The fundamentals of price action will be the same. We may not always been in the same trades, but if you have an edge it won’t matter. You will still end up profitable.
Thanks, that’s clearer to me.
A couple of questions MG. I took a quick look at Fiber as I was running out of work and thought I saw that roller coasterish pattern forming, but the fibs were a little low is that right any thoughts. What would you tell people not holding any Fiber positions.
Secondly, I’m not trading your style in my live account yet because I’m not good at it yet. I was wondering if you ever considered how you would go about applying your ‘show me’ approach that I do like to day trades rather than swing trades. Any quick thoughts on that.
I’d wait a day or two to see if it drops. Not liking any long positions yet either.
Can you clarify what you mean by show me approach?
Apologies, misspelled. I mean are there a couple of examples of how you might implement your general thought process on lower time frame trading. Would you develop a breakout system, etc. I like your trading style. I’m just asking hypothetically, if one wanted to trade shorter term, but apply some of your principles, how could (if at all) that be done if at all.
I imagine the money management would be the same. Less risk per trade, more trades to handle. I wouldn’t trust price action on anything less than one hour.
I’m hesitant on providing recommendations because it’s just not the way I would personally trade. Anything I say would be speculative versus something I know to be tried and true.
Hey, PipNRoll –
The Euro and Aussie are lookin’ pretty good so far this week!
[B]I learned an important lesson from MasterGunner:[/B] [U]never enter a position against your bias[/U] – wait for your bias to change (if it ever does).
After declaring Sunday 2/10 that I was bullish the AUDUSD, I kind of panicked when it closed below its recent low (0% retracement) on Monday 2/11, entering a Sell Stop order below that low – which was hit early Tuesday 2/11 and promptly reversed for a 100 pip loss. So, in my Simulated Trading Account, I did a Trade Reversal of 20,000 units (to go Long instead) and had my first trading result: a $200 loss, but a lesson well-learned.
If anyone cares, here’s my current Trading Summary (as of 7:30pm PT, Longs and Shorts) since beginning this methodology on Sunday (* these are pending DAY orders *):
AUDUSD - [B]Long[/B] (after initially being Short with a significant loss) @ 1.0348 for, presently, a small loss
NZDUSD - * Looking to get Long @ 0.8437 *
EURGBP - * Looking to get Long @ 0.8631 *
GBPAUD - [B]Short[/B] @ 1.5154 for, presently, a small loss
GBPCHF - * Looking to get Short @ 1.4280 *
GBPCAD - * Looking to get Short @ 1.5648 *
GBPNZD - [B]Short[/B] @ 1.8685 for, presently, a decent gain
AUDNZD - [B]Short[/B] @ 1.2271 for, presently, a small loss
NZDCAD - [B]Long[/B] @ 0.8434 at, presently, break even
Nice to see you’re grasping this. I’m getting peppered with some losses right now as well. Down 5.5% for the week taking me back to a little over 7% gain for the month and to 38.8% gain for the year.
I really appreciate that you are doing this thread. Let’s face it, trading is a very enjoyable activity for many of us. I’ve stayed away from swing trading up until now in favor of day trading, largely thinking that I wanted to day trade to feel more involved with the market. That was totally wrong. This is a very enjoyable way (and obviously profitable for those who get good at it) to approach trading and can keep you as active as you want I think. I really need to be doing this more actively in my demo account. Thank you for sharing and taking the time to be responsive with this.
