The Forex Portfolio - How to Gain Consistent Profits by Staying in the Market 24/7

[mastergunner99]

3BCJCSRAR38P2FSbounceByMG99AD2013

We got a winner!

[ramack]

That was going to be my next question. Thanks.

[Hogarste]

This looks really interesting and I will watch it as well. Looks like a roller coaster, could call it the ‘holy roller’.

@mastergunner99

This is a set up that I would be prepped and ready to trade every single time. The only thing that’s lacking is one more candle heading downward.

This pair has been falling straight down for a few weeks now. Along the way it met weak support and it continued on down.

It retraced. But it only made it thus far to the 38.2 fib retracement. In strong trends, it’s reasonable to see price bounce off this area and keep going in the direction of the overall trend.

Notice the candlestick pattern. My fleeting memory cannot immediately recall the specific name of this pattern, piercing perhaps, but the name is irrelevant. It’s a bearish candlestick pattern nonetheless.

So we have our confluence. A bearish pattern bouncing off the 38.2 retracement following a strong trend.

Is this tradable now? To some. But not for me. It’s still a guessing game. The current candle could still struggle. Or it could continue to rise up. What I’m looking for is it see if it continues down.

If it does drop, I will likely enter a short trade at the break of the low on the candle that confirms the direction.

The pattern itself is not enough for me to trade. I need to see price go first before I get on board.

Any questions?

[mastergunner99]

So far our “holy roller” is looking good. A good number of hours until close, but I like what I see thus far.

Quick note, I almost never look at charts during the day. But when I singled one out like this, just like you, my mind gravitates towards that one to see how it develops.

[PerchTird]

So the Holy Roller it is that’s cool - - so MG99 - I realize/believe you really do not set a hard stoploss to soon - is there a point in the Holy Roller that you just know you’ve been rolled over? - - for those of us that would not be so daring . … .like back at the 38.2 level? or would that be to ‘tight’ ?

[mastergunner99]

So the Holy Roller it is that’s cool - - so MG99 - I realize/believe you really do not set a hard stoploss to soon - is there a point in the Holy Roller that you just know you’ve been rolled over? - - for those of us that would not be so daring . … .like back at the 38.2 level? or would that be to ‘tight’ ?

I’m teasing about the name. The 38.2 bounce is sufficient, as that is exactly what’s happening.

If you insist on a stop I would put it well above the high. I’d personally put in a stop if price closed above the high, and the stop would be 10 pips beyond the high of that candle.

[fortnight]

I can’t create patience in you. That’s something you’ll have to develop on your own. My methodology will ultimately turn away a lot of people because it’s long term. As such, the results are long term. I’d say you have to give yourself a solid 90 day commitment to make a decision if this is viable for you or not.

The saying really is true here, that the best things come to those who wait. I know… Tragically corny.

To answer your question, I’m waiting to see how the current candle closes. This is just a set up that is easy to identify and very tradable. But it has to be confirmed. And the best way is to be willing to leave some pips on the table, let it run in the direction you want to and hop on. This looks like a strong trend thus far. There’s not much to really miss by waiting a day.

This is probably the #1 most important thing I’ve learned from MG thus far. Don’t be afraid to lose a few pips b/c you didn’t get in “perfectly”. Know what happens when you wait just a little longer to confirm direction, losing just a few pips? Your winning % skyrockets, and those few pips you left on the table by waiting just a tad longer are very cheap insurance towards much more profitable trading.

BTW MG, I’m about 120 pips up from Friday to today. Losing bad on my GBP/AUD long(-120), bout to cut them loose, winning on my USD/JPY long(+69) and GBP/USD short(+153).

[fortnight]

You know you can trade more than one style. I keep both a scalping account and swing trading account. Just saying. Don’t limit your self.

I know, my point is that I"m more comfortable swing trading than scalping. Scalping just isn’t for me.

[mastergunner99]

This is probably the #1 most important thing I’ve learned from MG thus far. Don’t be afraid to lose a few pips b/c you didn’t get in “perfectly”. Know what happens when you wait just a little longer to confirm direction, losing just a few pips? Your winning % skyrockets, and those few pips you left on the table by waiting just a tad longer are very cheap insurance towards much more profitable trading.

BTW MG, I’m about 120 pips up from Friday to today. Losing bad on my GBP/AUD long(-120), bout to cut them loose, winning on my USD/JPY long(+69) and GBP/USD short(+153).

Sweet deal. Glad you’re having early success. I’m up a little over 700 pips across 11 pairs right now. I’m on the same GBPAUD loser as you. Down 100 pips on that one. Going to assess at the end of the day what to do with it. Right now I’m not too concerned. I think if it really crashes down today, I’ll throw in a stop loss, but if it doesn’t i will probably let it sit another day before deciding.

Do what you feel is best for you. Nothing wrong with cutting a loser short if you think it’ll stay a loser. I would just caution you to wait for the candle to close.

[fortnight]

Sweet deal. Glad you’re having early success. I’m up a little over 700 pips across 11 pairs right now. I’m on the same GBPAUD loser as you. Down 100 pips on that one. Going to assess at the end of the day what to do with it. Right now I’m not too concerned. I think if it really crashes down today, I’ll throw in a stop loss, but if it doesn’t i will probably let it sit another day before deciding.

Do what you feel is best for you. Nothing wrong with cutting a loser short if you think it’ll stay a loser. I would just caution you to wait for the candle to close.

I decided to hold out for a little longer on GBP/AUD. I know you don’t use indicators, but Ichimoku says it’s about to turn around. As I gain experience, I’ll strive for a barebones chart, but for being a newbie, it works for me.

[mastergunner99]

This is exactly why I wait for price to confirm first. There was a time I would have just taken the trade and now would be hoping it will be able to turn around.

Now this is potentially looking to be the start of a new trend. My bias is still short for the time being. But we’ll see how this develops this week.

[rynlds2]

@mastergunner99

This is exactly why I wait for price to confirm first. There was a time I would have just taken the trade and now would be hoping it will be able to turn around.

Now this is potentially looking to be the start of a new trend. My bias is still short for the time being. But we’ll see how this develops this week.

And for this, we give thanks! That’s enough to prove to me that it’s worth the wait. I think I’ll be less antsy to jump in before it confirms. Don’t you just love it when you’re trying to make a point and it just lays it out there, plain as day for everyone to see?

[mastergunner99]

And for this, we give thanks! That’s enough to prove to me that it’s worth the wait. I think I’ll be less antsy to jump in before it confirms. Don’t you just love it when you’re trying to make a point and it just lays it out there, plain as day for everyone to see?

Yeah, I’m glad it turned out as it did. Great real time example, to illustrate.
It’s easy to talk about the past, but with this, it’s play by play as the price develops.

What a difference a few hours make. Imaging not waiting to the close and hopping on board when things looked flawless.

[ramack]

[B][U]EURJPY[/U][/B]
[B]Bias:[/B] Bullish

[B]Analysis:[/B] Long-term uptrend since 7/25/2012. Intermediate-term uptrend since 1/24/2013. Short-term downtrend (likely retracement) since 2/06/2013.
All comments/feedback welcome … thanks!

Just curious if you look at the EURJPY and still would like to go long?

[rynlds2]

Yeah, I’m glad it turned out as it did. Great real time example, to illustrate.
It’s easy to talk about the past, but with this, it’s play by play as the price develops.

What a difference a few hours make. Imaging not waiting to the close and hopping on board when things looked flawless.

Lesson learned and I didn’t even have to lose anything! Very good lesson to learn like this instead of losing a bunch of pips to learn it the hard way like most!

[mastergunner99]

Just curious if you look at the EURJPY and would like to go long?

This wasn’t much of a retrace at all. And with the length of that candle, it’s clear which direction price wants to go. This is an instance of where I’m comfortable taking a long at the break of this high, with preference of waiting another day.

My bias has been bullish for months now. And it’s paid me handsomely along the way.

[mastergunner99]

Lesson learned and I didn’t even have to lose anything! Very good lesson to learn like this instead of losing a bunch of pips to learn it the hard way like most!

Yeah, I didn’t have to lose any either for the sake of teaching others.

[sstrnod]

Just curious if you look at the EURJPY and still would like to go long?

Yes, ramack, I’d wait for a daily bar to close above the 100% retracement high of 127.70 first, then place a Buy Stop order at one pip above that bar’s high; however, I see that MasterGunner would (pardon the pun) “pull the trigger” quicker and get long after the up-bar high of about 126.63 is broken – if I understood his reply to you correctly.

Since there’s a little resistance at 127.70, I’ll wait for about another 8+ pips of travel through that then …

[sstrnod]

MasterGunner,

I ran across the chart above during my evening analysis. It appears similar to your “38.2” bounce pattern, but I’m not sure how you’d contrast this with your CADCHF example (candlesticks, confluence, and all that).

Would you treat this GBPCHF differently – and, if so, why? Thanks!

[sstrnod]

MasterGunner,

I found another “38.2” bounce candidate (GBPNZD as depicted in the chart above), and have a Sell Stop order placed one pip below the low of the candle(s) that closed below the 23.6 level (@ 1.8686).

Does this mimic what you would do (or have done)? If it differs, in what ways? Thanks!