I totally agree that it’s laid back and also fun, as one feels like you can trade at any time. I like the tools that I use for bias (which is just a way of saying which way is the market going, however ones own mind likes to do it) but I also like conceptually not having to stress out over feeling like I’d missed an entry. I could see the being a basis for some interesting trading.
I didn’t say I “completely” excluded anything, just that I’ve excluded pairs that a ranging. If a trend develops I will add these pairs. I am trading all pairs with a complete disregard for entries because I am jumping on trends and this is swing trading at its finest.
If I was trading live I would look for better entries like HL on an uptrend and LH on downtrends. But I am really interested in how this performs without over thinking the process.
[QUOTE=“mastergunner99”]
MG this is a question about cycles and seasonality. With this type of trading do you notice periods during the year that you suggest folks avoid adding any new positions? I know you’re looking for what price tells you. I ask because several weeks ago (which seemed to be the start of trends in many pairs) I did not seriously test these methods in my demo account. I’m wondering if you’ve noticed periods where the many pairs start consolidating and changing direction, and it makes more sense to wait for signs that a new trend has begun.
T
[quote=“Hogarste,post:691,topic:49858”]
Was wondering the same, also how to judge bias? For example do you use Daily candles, 4 hour waves, or Weekly closes?
I’ve never really considered seasons as I trade all year long. I wouldn’t say there’s anything set other than it would seem that about once a quarter, there’s a decent run to catch.
I’m probably more loose in my trading than you guys so I’m probably in the market more to randomly catch these moves. But then again, who’s to say your analysis wouldn’t have had you in either.
My bias is pretty simple it’s rather embarrassing. I just look to see the direction of price and take note of support and resistance. Candlestick patterns help paint a more detailed picture, as does Fibonacci. I’m generally resistant to changing my bias simply because a couple candles went against me. It has to be a more profound move supported by patterns and Fibonacci.
My bias isn’t that much different than you guys, and honestly I think you guys do a much more analytical job than I do and I imagine that you be in your favor.
On a side note, are any of you trading 3 ducks? Something tells me my money management in multiple pairs would serve that methodology well.
How about something like this?
To determine trend bias, drop 2 of the 3-ducks and use just the 60 period moving average on the 4-hour.
Or the 10 period moving average on the daily. (60 x 4-hours = 240 hours and 10 x 24 hours = 240 hours)
Then enter from the 4-hour or daily using price action and/or candle patterns. Momentum breaks, pin bars, v-patterns, inside/outside bars, fibs, S/R, etc.
Apply this to all your trending pairs. Manage it on either the 4-hour or daily, as time permits.
Here’s EUR/USD for February. The first chart is the 4-hour with the 60ma, second is the daily with the 10ma.
Sorry my IBFX demo prints Sunday bars.
Hey d-pip. So to determine market bias, the bars must make a low beneath and stay under the one MA (duck)? Could I ask that you explain a little more as to how what indicates a change in the bias.
In my demo account I just went through all 28 pairs. In 19 of the pairs I was able to enter a market order, in 6 of the pairs I entered a p&c, and in 3 I decided to sit tight. A few of the pairs have eaten the spread and are showing a tiny positive, but it’s way too early to assess. Interestingly the pairs that are positive so far, seem to be related to the Pound’s weekness.
Hi mastergunner99,
I had started trading your method for 3 weeks. Was up for the first 2 weeks at almost 7%. I was up this week initially but most trades went against me and I had given back some gains.
Anyway, the best part I like about this method is the risk management. It’s simple enough that one does not even need an excel sheet to calculate how many pips = how many % = how many lots to trade!
So my question is about risk.
100 pips is 1%, 200 pips is 2%. We know that conventional teachings say not to risk more than 2% per trade. Since you have held on to positions for 42 days, it must have been going up and down. So what is your largest drawdown for a single trade at any point of your trading? Eg, you could have bought at 1.0000. Price went to 0.9500 at one point, but you eventually close the trade for 1.0200. So it’s -500 pips at one point.
How about equity? Always in the positive?
[B]“Stop losses are for schmucks!”[/B]
Carlos ([I]Fooled by Randomness[/I]. Nassim Nicholas Taleb)
It takes a lot of discipline to trade a method like this but it also pays to trade this method…!
Hogarste,
See this is why [B]I’m not a good teacher[/B]. After doing this for awhile it’s become so obvious to me that the moving averages should be starting to show an angle [B]that I forgot to mention it. duh![/B]
You want the moving averages to be starting to angle up at 02:30 or higher or down at 03:30 or lower. Then it’s a fair bet that a new trend is establishing. Notice I said “a fair bet”, if you want a guarantee buy a toaster.
According to this method, at the beginning of the first week in Feb the trend was still up. Wasn’t until the end of the first week that the moving averages were starting to angle down. Signaling that it might be a fair bet to start watching price action for short entries. The 13th was the day to start hitting the sell button. (talking about EUR/USD)
If the moving averages are flat, stand down and wait for an obvious trend to establish. For example, look at the 60 or 10 period moving averages on EUR/CAD 4-hour or daily and you’ll see that today they’re flat. So we wait for a trend. Daily & 4-hour candle patterns are looking short and the next move could very well be down. But according to this method, EUR/CAD has not yet established an obvious trend.
Not trying to pick tops or bottoms here.
Here’s a priceless quote by Tess from the Tech Templates thread. I have a copy hanging on my refrigerator door,[B] honest… I really do![/B]
Notice Tess said, “clearly identify an [B]obvious[/B] directional bias”, IMO [B]obvious[/B] is the key word!
Wonder what important steps I left out this time??? :56:
PS What the heck is a p&c?
I’m glad you asked what a p&c was d-pip, I really wanted to know, but thought it might have been a “newbie” question!
Equity has always been positive, meaning it never feel below my account balance.
My largest loss on a trade has been 290 pips. My average loss is 100. I don’t let losers run hoping they become winners.
I assumed it is some random ICT speak, but I am not sure either.
I try not use an ICT terms on this thread, out of basic courtesy, as you’re taking your time to teach, and I understand your feelings on that subject. ‘Market sructure’ (as an example) is a basic term, but folks associate it with ICT, so I try to be considerate and use it minimally if posting someplace that is non-ICT. It was very late at night and my post was witten poorly.
P&C stands for ‘Parent and Contingent’ and is a type of order in Dealbook360 (GFT). It means setting up an order ahead of time with predefined stop(s) and profit(s) points, where the market has to reach a specific point before the order activates. Not all systems have this, and it’s called other things, but again it was late, and I was tired, and had "Chasing Amy’ on in the background. I always hope it’s going to end differently, and Ben Affelck won’t mess things up with ‘Alyssa Jones’ (Joey Lauren Adams). She is totally hot on that movie.
In every movie I watch with Ben Affleck, I as well hope it has a different ending, and that he dies a long painful horrific death.
I’m still not sure if I’ve been clear enough on the 1-duck method so….
With this 1-duck method you use the moving average only for trend bias and nothing else.
Don’t use the moving average for support/resistance, don’t care if price is above or below the moving average, don’t trade a break of the moving average, or any other silly moving average stuff. This is not a moving average cross system.
Once the moving average is giving you a clear and obvious trend bias, trade using your favorite price action and/or candle patterns. Momentum breaks, S/R, pin bars, v-patterns, inside/outside bars, fibs, or even OTEs.
The moving average is only a guide to help you decide whether you’re looking for long or short set-ups, period.
Hope that’s more clearer
PS check out 301 Moved Permanently A similar method worth looking at.
Why don’t you like Ben Affleck?
Nah, He just have a preference…He likes “Alejandro” check my Avatar for a clue 
Who is Alejandro?..and why did you change it to a guy?