[QUOTE=“medisoft;496299”]
Thank you 
May I ask you for some advice about my trading? I think I need some advice on my exits.
Thank you again :)[/QUOTE]
Just follow price action… Exit when the price action tells you to.
Yes, but run for how long till you TP?
Until my stop gets me out I think. Moving my stop when I see some PA that shows weakness of the trend…
Can you present a specific example? That might be easier than for me to give a generalized piece of advice.
Ok, let the example be this:
Looking ahead, next week, investors’ focus will be on US labour data, and the ECB rate announcement and press conference.
“We do not expect the ECB to become less dovish compared to the previous meeting. In the US labour data is unlikely to disappoint strongly, irrespective of most recent more muted jobless claims data. We remain of the view that US growth prospects will continue to improve, which should be especially reflected in further improving consumer strength,” said Manuel Oliveri, senior FX strategist at Crédit Agricole in London.
“This in turn will keep the EUR against the USD capped and make rallies still a sell,” he projected.
Don’t exit the sell pos on eu/us. It might possibly go to 1.31 but that will be it as it’s heading for 1.275 then
[QUOTE=“ColbertBearish;496509”]Looking ahead, next week, investors’ focus will be on US labour data, and the ECB rate announcement and press conference.
“We do not expect the ECB to become less dovish compared to the previous meeting. In the US labour data is unlikely to disappoint strongly, irrespective of most recent more muted jobless claims data. We remain of the view that US growth prospects will continue to improve, which should be especially reflected in further improving consumer strength,” said Manuel Oliveri, senior FX strategist at Crédit Agricole in London.
“This in turn will keep the EUR against the USD capped and make rallies still a sell,” he projected.
Don’t exit the sell pos on eu/us. It might possibly go to 1.31 but that will be it as it’s heading for 1.275 then[/QUOTE]
If the news accurately predicted price movement, then we’d all be trading full time,
[QUOTE=“medisoft;496504”]Ok, let the example be this:
[/QUOTE]
I’m assuming you are long here. Going in, I would have had my stop loss at the bottom of the low, likely moving it up when the second higher low was made.
But now, it would appear that it hit some Fibonacci resistance from the high swings from a couple weeks back, so this could be the start of a downtrend.
I personally would wait a day or two more to get better confirmation on direction.
What would you have him do then? What is your personal opinion on the eurusd?
My thinking is this account has a Yen issue, because medisoft opened all the crosses too and what was supposed to hedge them coz they are all doing the same thing pretty much and positivell correlating with each other…just look at the charts…Eurusd is the least of his problems.
Your stage, mgunner
He’s in a selling it at the moment. You can just make out that it’s a sell from the picture. He’s also mentioned in on of his recent updates that he’s fundamentally short on EURUSD.
That is part of my fundamental based bias. That is what is making me define a short bias for this pair and also helps other pairs.
Thanks, but it is a sell not a buy.
[QUOTE=“heelflip43;496617”]
He’s in a selling it at the moment. You can just make out that it’s a sell from the picture. He’s also mentioned in on of his recent updates that he’s fundamentally short on EURUSD.[/QUOTE]
Appreciate the correction. I’m working off my iPhone.
Same concept. Stop loss would be above the high of those prior swings, if one is placed at all. Wait a couple days to see if price continues to drop. If so, I’d likely move the stop above the high of the new lower high if price starts to reverse and closes above it… After that, looking for spots to lock in profit while giving price enough wiggle room between areas if support and resistance.
Hi! I’m posting my analysis for today.
My equity returned to green after being 1 day on red and is above my initial deposit. Yesterday I had some work and was unable to make my written analysis, but moved some stops. Also, I am unable to take the screen shot of myfxbook, because it has so many trades open that it cannot fit on a single image. Floating profit is +843.7 pips.
[ol]
[li]EURUSD bias short. It has moved some days up, but I’m still convinced about its long term bias and also it is showing resistance at a key level formed by the 61.8 % retracement.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias long. Price moved to the 261.8 extension and bounced on a S/R at 0.7940 a couple of days. I still see it as a buy and today’s price is great.[/li][li]USDCAD bias long. was stopped out for a +95 pip profit. I’m waiting for a good point to buy it again, but I think it is not going to happen this week and maybe neither next week.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long. Ouch, it is biting me! I’m hearing “kyiaaa” hits on my hears on my yen pairs! But I’m also handling because my bias is long and the pair is still moving withing the expected range. What I’m learning is to have more patience for my entries and wait until the price fully retraced to 61.8 or 50 at least before placing a trade. It could be a retrace only to 38.2 or 23.6 but that level must fall in the other extreme of my channel.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long. Same as UJ.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. It is bouncing on the channel. I want to see a new lower low to be sure that the downtrend is going to continue. If it makes a higher low, I’m going to move my stop.[/li][li]CADCHF bias short. Yesterday I moved my stop just above that huge doji or long legged doji. But price managed to continue down today. It has not broke the support yet, but I’m not moving my stop. This is already a free trade for me locking +148 pips.[/li][li]CADJPY bias long. Well, the same as other yen pairs… the three I already analyzed are on the 61.8 retracement and showing PA about a bull continuation.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias long. This pair is serving me as a forecast, because it has been inside a range, and a triangle that is very well respected. If this triangle is true, it is going to break within 3-6 days and that could also signal a continuation (or an ugly reversal) for the yen pairs. I expect a bullish continuation on all of them because that is my bias.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. Currently in its upper trend line, and that level happens to be the 127.2 % extension, so with overwhelming resistances there, I’m moving my stop to previous bar low. Locked +100 pips[/li][li]EURGBP bias long. Price is still inside a range, but I think it is finishing a trade in a couple of days. What this could mean is that the smart money already knows the result of NFP and is betting that the job report is going to cause a move in the USD to the north causing a slower effect on the pound than on the euro. It could be also to the south, and thus I’m protecting this trade with my stop. It is now a free trade.[/li][li]EURJPY bias long. Inside a range. Near the lower trend line, just like CHFJPY.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long. Moved my entry point to the new swing 61.8 %[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. Price is above the 61.8 retracement for the downtrend. If it breaks above the 78.6 it should extend at least to the 100 %, at 1.98. It is showing some resistance at 1.91, and that could be a problem. I’m waiting for more signals to move my stop.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long. Currently trading below the trend line and on the 78.6 % retracement. Near S/R, but if it fails to get support, I’m going to change my mind and think this could be a change of bias.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias short. The support is holding, if today’s candle closes green I’m going to move my stop to lock profits.[/li][li]NZDJPY bias long, same as other yen pairs, it is on the 61.8 and on a S/R. I think this week they are going to make its push (north or south, don’t know, but biased to north)[/li][li]USDHKD bias long. Well, that’s too bad, but the price broke the trend line. It is on a S/R that was tested twice, so I expect a good S/R there, but nothing can be said until it closes above 7.7648.[/li][li]USDSGD bias long. Price bounced on the 50 % retracement, shown a green doji there and is now trying to go up. The 50 level is also on the middle of my channel, and that level is also the previous higher high. If today’s candle closes green, I’m going to buy it at this level.[/li][li]USDCHF bias long. Current price is at the 61.8 retracement. Nice support there, with good candlesticks, also showing the target of the harmonic pattern. I’m tempted to buy at this level. I mean, I was not able to resist the temptation and bought at this level.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long. Price is moving very nice and closed above a S/R. It is barely inside my uptrend channel, and that is very good for me, that means I got a very good entry! Free trade here![/li][li]EURNZD bias long. It is just below my S/R and it is having some problems crossing it. It is already a free trade with +331 pips locked, but I’m moving my stop just below previous day low to lock some more profits.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. It is on the lower part of my channel and having some problems getting inside the channel, I’m going to move my stop a little more near previous low.[/li][li]BRENT bias long. I think the pair could not breakout the current range in this move, so I’m moving my stop just below previous day.[/li][li]XAUUSD bias change to mild long. I see a higher low and a developing triangle plus fundamental reasons to think that some big money is going to buy gold.[/li][li]XAGUSD bias neutral. Waiting to see what is going on this instrument. I think it will be a buy but it could drop some more pips. I have seen silver at less than 15 usd per ounce, and we are far above that level.[/li][li]EURCHF bias long. Waiting for a 61.8 retracement.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. In a correction that could extend and touch my stop.[/li][li]USDMXN bias short. It managed to drop after that nice pinbar. I sold physical dollars today to fix my car that, and got nice price![/li][li]GBPAUD bias short. My trade was stopped out for a -338.5 pip loss, and now is wandering near a long term trend line that has been tested many times in the past. If I see a candle pattern that shows that the line is going to work, I’m going to sell the pair again.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short. Making a retracement. I see that the pair is starting to range and that could be a pause for the downtrend or a reversal. Only time will tell.[/li][li]GPBCAD bias long. Moving my way nicely.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long. On a S/R. If price fails to break that level, I’m going to move my stop tomorrow.[/li][li]AUDUSD bias short. It was stopped out for +249 pip profit. Looking for a good level to short it again.[/li][/ol]
My trade on USDCHF
It’s my opinion that its better to pay the cost if waiting, then pay the cost of being wrong. Either way I’m either missing out or losing pips, but psychologically, I can handle missing out on a few if it’s validating my overall bias.
I’m trying my best to do the same, but still have problems knowing when the swing is confirmed. In this case I see that the pair made a higher low on a strong support. I know that still needs to confirm that it is a higher low, but when do you say that it is ready? One or two candles in your direction?
And when to place the stop? I don’t like to trade without a stop, never know if I’m going to be able to handle my trade tomorrow (like happened to me when my kid got sick a couple weeks ago). In this case placing the stop at previous swing low (the lower part of the V move) would be a nice place because it was not touch.
[QUOTE=“medisoft;497290”]
I’m trying my best to do the same, but still have problems knowing when the swing is confirmed. In this case I see that the pair made a higher low on a strong support. I know that still needs to confirm that it is a higher low, but when do you say that it is ready? One or two candles in your direction?
And when to place the stop? I don’t like to trade without a stop, never know if I’m going to be able to handle my trade tomorrow (like happened to me when my kid got sick a couple weeks ago). In this case placing the stop at previous swing low (the lower part of the V move) would be a nice place because it was not touch.[/QUOTE]
When I enter, I enter after the move is made. Often I see people look at an area of resistance and enter in hopes price moves in that direction. Sometimes it does, sometimes it doesn’t.
So if I see a bearish engulfing pattern, I wait one more candle before rolling in. And only if it is a healthy bearish candle.
I strive to narrow down such guessing, and despite my efforts, I still lose more trades than I win, however I win more pips than i lose. It’s just I cut a losing trade more often than I allow a winner to keep running.
There will be ups and downs with this. And that’s okay. Don’t fret or stray if you hit a slump. There will always be massive moves a few times a year that make it all worth it.
May I ask you where do you like to place your stop? I marked 3 points I would choose. The point I chosen is the red line at the stop 1, but that could be too big risk.
Thanks.
PS: if you choose another point, may I ask you to tell me?
---- edit
Also, I think a engulfing bar followed by a confirmation is called 3 outside up/down pattern and it could be also some type of morning/evening star or 3 inside up/down if the second bar is smaller or a doji type bar.
So I understand that you like more 3+ candle patterns, because they give confirmations.
[QUOTE=“medisoft;497310”]
May I ask you where do you like to place your stop? I marked 3 points I would choose. The point I chosen is the red line at the stop 1, but that could be too big risk.
Thanks.
PS: if you choose another point, may I ask you to tell me?
---- edit
Also, I think a engulfing bar followed by a confirmation is called 3 outside up/down pattern and it could be also some type of morning/evening star or 3 inside up/down if the second bar is smaller or a doji type bar.
So I understand that you like more 3+ candle patterns, because they give confirmations.[/QUOTE]
I generally place stops after price has moved against me. For me here, I would place a stop if price went down below that last highest low and closed for the day. I would likely place a stop loss a little past that low to stop any further losses if price moves against me.
Think of it like this, I place a stop loss only if the chart, not including the current candle, would render me with a decision that I shouldn’t be in the trade.
Previously, when I would place stop losses in anticipation of movement and not after movement, I was finding my stop to be hit only to return back in the direction I wanted it to go.
So my interest in placing stops only lies on information from the past and not what the current candle is doing.
And yes, I like three bar patterns over two bar. And even then sometimes I hold out for a fourth. But generally, I’d say I’m usually entering in on the break of the third bar.