Yes, I know 
What I have is that my entries are placed too soon many times. Iām changing to being more strict with the requirements for an entry.
You make a lot of stuff up ak. Where is your myfxbook then?
ā¦and he liked his own post under yet another alias?! This is scamming on a next level, itās almost respectableā¦ almostā¦ 
Do not take this the wrong way, but I see too many traders asking for myfxbookās. You would probably be better off focusing on your own track record instead of other peoples. Even if its not āvalidā, I would ask yourself ā¦āWell is mine?ā and the answer is probably not, so I would still recommend focusing on your own.
Also some one should consider that most MT4 brokers have a problem with myfxbook because Metaquotes is blocking its IPsā¦ and that adds an extra level of complexity to add an account to myfxbook.
You have only 2 remaining methods, upload your statement to an ftp, or installing an EA that uses an unknown, not open source DLL (and the EA itself) on your MT4. Something that could be harmless, but it could also be a back doorā¦
Not to mention entirely unnecessary.
If i posted results, what does that solve? This thread would be flooded with people trying to duplicate results without taking the time to demo trade, find their own success, and then investing in their own success.
My analysis for today!
Well, as you can see, there is a BIG draw down on the account. Current equity is below initial deposit. Iām pretty sure this will fix in the (near) future once the trends start developing, so Iām not worrying.
USDJPY bias long. Previous entry failed. I placed it without a healthy green candle, and without a very well defined pattern, so it is my mistake.
USDMXN bias short. Iām waiting for a signal.
AUDJPY bias short, waiting for a signal.
CADCHF bias long, waiting for a signal.
AUDNZD bias neutral. I see it is making a double bottom and I expect it to convert to a buy, but until it is confirmed, Iām not buying it. I currently have a short trade with tight stop.
AUDCHF bias short. Price made a candle with big upper wick, but my stop managed to stay intact and now the price is lower. Will see what is going to happen.
AUDCAD bias short. Price was stopped out for a +255 pip profit. Now Iām waiting for a new signal.
USDCHF bias short. Price broke the channel and bounced on the external part and made an evening star pattern on a key level. Previous candle broke a S/R, so Iām selling it.
USDCAD bias long. Price just made a morning star pattern with small stop, but I need a confirmation candle.
NZDUSD bias short. Price bounced on an S/R but it is still inside my channel. Waiting for a signal.
GBPUSD bias long. Waiting for a signal.
AUDUSD bias short. Waiting for a signal.
EURUSD bias short. Waiting for an entry
BRENT bias long. Waiting
XAUUSD bias neutral.
XAGUSD bias short. Waiting for an entry.
USDSGD bias long, waiting for a signal
USDHKD bias long. At last, it is moving my way after being wondering where to go for almost a month.
NZDJPY bias long. Waiting for a good entry.
NZDCHF bias short. Waiting for an entry
NZDCAD bias short. Waiting for an entry.
GBPNZD bias long, waiting for a signal to move my stop.
GBPJPY bias long. Waiting for a good entry.
GBPCHF bias long. Waiting for a good signal.
GBPCAD bias long. Waiting for a good signal.
GBPAUD bias long. Waiting
EURNZD bias long. Waiting
EURJPY bias long. Stopped out for a -416 pip loss. Waiting for a good signal.
EURGBP bias changing to short. Waiting for a signal.
EURCHF bias long. Expected move to 88.6
EURCAD bias long. Waiting for a signal
EURAUD bias long, waiting for a signal.
CHFJPY bias long, waiting. My entry was too soon.
CADJPY bias long. Stopped out for -358 pip loss. Waiting for a signal.
Medisoft I see you are having some of the same problems I am having. Last week I had a great week, but friday rolled around and the NFP put a beating on me. I had my stops set real tight for that reason so it closed me out of everything basically that day. It worked out in my favor. I think the problem we are all facing is we are not looking far enough ahead. We let the daily events run our emotions. Sometimes I think I would do better trading off the weekly and monthly charts and just looking at my account every sunday evening lol. I have been real quick to enter trades too but I have recently gotten better at waiting and adding to my winners. I see the euraud has been treating you good. I had been adding to it for awhile but got stopped out friday. Waiting for confirmation to enter back in.
I appreciate you posting your analysis and results all the time. I use your data alot and compare. I see you are still bullish on the yen, and fundamentally it makes since. Price action is screaming a different tune though. I open some sells yesterday so we will see what happens. Going to keep my stops tight on it.
MG99 where is your proof bro?!?! lol jj I bet you getting tired of hearing that. Thanks for the method. My proof is with my small little account so thats good enough for me. What is your advice on trading weekly and monthly charts? Is that allowing for to much time for noise and news to ruin technicals?
If you could go back in time and do things differently, what would that be? Have you learnt anything from this experience?
[QUOTE=ācajunbayou;499775ā]Medisoft I see you are having some of the same problems I am having. Last week I had a great week, but friday rolled around and the NFP put a beating on me. I had my stops set real tight for that reason so it closed me out of everything basically that day. It worked out in my favor. I think the problem we are all facing is we are not looking far enough ahead. We let the daily events run our emotions. Sometimes I think I would do better trading off the weekly and monthly charts and just looking at my account every sunday evening lol. I have been real quick to enter trades too but I have recently gotten better at waiting and adding to my winners. I see the euraud has been treating you good. I had been adding to it for awhile but got stopped out friday. Waiting for confirmation to enter back in.
I appreciate you posting your analysis and results all the time. I use your data alot and compare. I see you are still bullish on the yen, and fundamentally it makes since. Price action is screaming a different tune though. I open some sells yesterday so we will see what happens. Going to keep my stops tight on it.
MG99 where is your proof bro?!?! lol jj I bet you getting tired of hearing that. Thanks for the method. My proof is with my small little account so thats good enough for me. What is your advice on trading weekly and monthly charts? Is that allowing for to much time for noise and news to ruin technicals?[/QUOTE]
I donāt have any advice deviating on other time charts as I havenāt done so myself.
This is a long term style of trading and I seem to get the impression that some folks want it faster. It just doesnāt work like that.
The sole reason I worked towards the development of this was to capture has dive trends. When you scroll back on charts each pair just goes crazy at some point.
I also wanted something that could help me rife out the time between those crazy trends.
Will the NFP suck sometimes? Yeah. Will it be a blessing sometimes? Yeah. Now scroll back on your charts and see if you can point out visually all the days that were on the first Friday if every month. My guess is that it all just blends in.
The perception if time is powerful. You feel time passing more in the present, but your mind canāt comprehend lengths of time in the past.
The key for me is patience and high probability moves. If I donāt think thereās a damn good chance I can profit here, I donāt take it. I donāt take marginal trades with the idea that the others will offset it if Iām wrong. Itās when I am wrong that the others offset it.
Thatās why showing my account matters little. Itās not the results of my trades, itās the mentality I have before I make the trade. Itās the methodology I use to take a trade and hope its the next big 1000 pip wave. Itās usually not, but when it us, man oh man does my account ramp up.
I think I should have to be more careful in my entry selection and stop position. Looking some of my recent loser trades I found that I broke my own rules in almost all of them. For example, in CHFJPY trade I placed a buy when I saw a buy pattern, but that pattern was not on a key level and didnāt made a āhealthyā candle after the pattern.
On EURGBP the pattern was on a key level, but there wasnāt a healthy green candle after it.
On CADJPY the pattern was only looking like a morning star, but it was not a morning star, it was invalid pattern.
On USDMXN I failed waiting for the healthy candle.
I can continue, but what I need to do is to make a check list and check all the tests before placing a trade and have patience to wait until all the checks are OK. This is my PIP today, and I think I will need to work hard on it.
The methodology is good, and the theory behind it is very good. Just like a hedge fund, place trades based on PA, and discard the losers fast and let winners run.
I think it is me that failed, not the methodology, not my PA skills, but my patience.
My analysis today! Iām not posting my trades today because I feel lazy hahahahaha, after all, you can check it on the myfxbook page.
My equity is 28 % below my initial deposit, so it is the biggest draw down for this account.
Also, Iām not writing long descriptions today, if I should write ābias xxx, waiting for a signalā, then I will write only bias YYY. (remember, I feel lazy)
[ol]
[li]USDMXN bias short.[/li][li]CADJPY bias long.[/li][li]EURGBP bias short. Ranging.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias short. Stopped out for +455 pip profit.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias long.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias short.[/li][li]CADCHF bias long[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short[/li][li]USDCHF bias short[/li][li]USDCAD bias long. Morning star but not on a key level.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias short.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias long[/li][li]AUDUSD bias short[/li][li]EURUSD bias short.[/li][li]BRENT bias long[/li][li]GOLD bias short[/li][li]SILVER bias short[/li][li]USDSGD bias long[/li][li]USDHKD bias long[/li][li]NZDJPY bias long[/li][li]NZDCHF bias short[/li][li]NZDCAD bias short[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long[/li][li]GBPJPY bias long[/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. Made a valid morning star on key level. Placing a buy on close above 1.4553[/li][li]GBPCAD bias long[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long[/li][li]EURNZD bias long[/li][li]EURJPY bias long[/li][li]EURCHF bias long. Made a morning star on the expected level.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. Made an evening star, maybe this is going to be stopped out for profit this week.[/li][/ol]
Medisoft, I really appreciate your posting as they give me some way to understand how the methodology is actually used. I am completely new to trading forex and still in elementary pipsology school
The first part I need to understand is the ābiasā as this is what determines how you look at the PA.
In your analysis I donāt understand the following bias:
USDCAD: bias long? To me it seems to be trading more sideways
EURUSD: bias short? If I look at the W1 chart I see that the last 4 weeks were in an uptrend and looking at the D1 chart it seems that the uptrend started on May 29
How do you determine your bias? Are you looking at the weekly or daily chart? How many candles do you need to confirm the trend or how else do you determine that?
Please forgive me if these are very basic questions and maybe were answered already. I went through at least 50% of the thread and there is more I am still reading.
Thanks
First, Iām not an expert, nor live from forex, so my comments are only my thoughts, and you must do your analysis to form your own opinion
This is my chart for USDCAD
I use daily chart. I posted here the weekly just for your question. MG99 gave recommendations at the start of the thread. What I du basically, open my daily chart, max zoom out, look for key levels where price bounces and mark them as S/R. Then I place a big channel that encloses a big portion of the chart, more than 260 days (forex trends last long time, because they are dependent of a country economy, and that changes very slowly. 4 years is good because is what last a government on the US, and that tends to create cycles).
After that I try to draw the last two small channels, and that channels are the ones that defines what Iām trading. Then look for HH/HL series and try to place your trades where a candlestick pattern happens to be on a key level and if possible on an extreme of the smaller channel. (This is where Iām failing! Iām placing my trades early or without confirmed patterns or with patterns that are not on key levels)
Very well. I understand your approach now. Your charts are very helpful even if took me quite some time to appreciate them and got a little headache staring at all those lines and symbols ā¦ just kidding. Hope you did not have to create those just for me.
I was looking at the Weekly chart for the trend too but only going back 3-4 months. I used 3-4 months because I did not understand the basic principle and I thought a āfew monthsā was a ālongā term from the first chart presented by MG99.
For some reason I thought that PA was closer to what is happening in the near term as opportunities and investors point of view changes on a weekly basis
Thanks again. I am going back studying ā¦
PA is āfractalā, so you can use PA at 1 month bars, or 1 minute bars, it is not important. What is important is that on higher time frames you have better probabilities to win because you are not competing with high frequency automated trading machines, that are always faster than a human.
Also remember that while news move the market, you need a lot of news of the same style to change the direction of a country economy, not only one. So if you have lot of bad news, and only a little good news, the overall direction of the economy is down, and so itās currency tends to be weak. The economic cycles last months or years, thatās why Iām using a big, multi-year channel, but also I use smaller channels because the distance between the high and the low of the bigger channel is enough to take more than 500 pips, some times the channel is wide enough to get 2000 pips from a move.
Again just to see if I understand the concept.
If you are following the EURUSD down trend that started in Feb 2011, you keep looking at short opportunities with a main resistance level on the dotted red line. In this situation if you are very good you can possibly ride the huge wave from Sept. 2011 to Jan 2012 LL :35:
Now we expect a retracement and we find out that a new support level takes place as identified by the bright yellow line but we are still looking at a short bias.
Around March, if we are good again we will ride the next big wave down to the July 2012 LL. Bravo :35:
Now we are expecting a retracement again but our yellow resistance line is broken in Aug 2012 and then we have a little bit of side action before the price moves decisively above our resistance level.
This is where you now are tracing the blue up trending channel. Should I assume that in this situation when we are in Dec. 2012 your bias would have moved from short to long?
This is where I get lost. When do you actually consider changing your bias?
I do see that if we had changed our bias in Dec. 2012 to long, then our support level would have been broken in Feb 2013 where you have the white arrow. But then, if that was the case we would be on an āneutralā bias right now waiting to see if price wants to resume the most recent uptrend or the older down trend.
And I see that you have traced a new āblueā resistance line, but in theory we could also draw a new support line connecting the 2 most recent HL points.
This is where I really got lost ā¦
I also have another question. While I understand that this methodology is focusing on the big movements and thus you want to take the āhelicopterā view you have in your chart, but at the same time I see that many more āmini trendā opportunities are lost in this way.
Would it make sense to use the same idea and trade both the very long view for the big gains in the 1000 of pips (2-4 times/year) while also use a modified version for mini-trends that can focus on the 100 of pips gains (2-4 times/month)?
Thanks and thanks
I think you need to see what kind of trader you are; by this I mean if you are in a trade for the long term, like at least a year or more, look at the monthly and weekly charts. Use weekly and daily for anything upto a year and so on. Otherwise youāll find yourself going mad because the monthly will say its a downtrend,weekly an uptrend, daily a downtrend and 4h rangingā¦ So you have no bias because you donāt know what time frame to derive the bias. Ask yourself what kind of trader you are: long term, medium, short, scalper and ALWAYS base a bias on daily and above. Always.
I am more interested in the medium term horizon (trades that are closed in days/weeks).
What I like about this methodology though is that the trades are based on the end of day data and the decision is done in the evening after business hours in a 1-2 hours period.
This is a trading habit I can maintain given that my time during business hours is very limited and I travel often.
I understand that this methodology is focused on the long term where trades are closed in weeks/months. What I donāt understand is the type of results that can be achieved.
In my case I am looking for a strategy that can provide additional income that I would like to use to fund my 2 daughtersā college (ā¦ big wish ā¦).
What I see from the results posted by Medisoft is that this methodology has the theoretical potential to realize big profits when the big wave arrives (and if you are able to ride it along without being stopped). The drawdown however can be big and numerous since you are leaving your stops loose and there are more āfalseā waves or small waves than there are big ones.
So I was thinking that there could be a way to combine a mid-term and a long-term approach to āoptimizeā the methodology without loosing its true spirit. Maybe an impossible balance. I have to say that I like this methodology a lot but I am not a ābelieverā, yet.
Still studying the options at the moment
Youād have to really demo to see where it all fits. I personally view this as a means to build my overall portfolio. For me personally, itās far too risky to want to rely on it for income.
Mrchilled was spot on with getting an understanding of what type of trader you are. For me, Iām long term and only look for the quarterly sh*t fit the market throws out there as my means for gains.
Iām sure I could spend the effort to optimize each pair, time frames, and a slew of other things. But really, why bother? For me it works as is.
My recommendation would be to take 90 days on demo and see where you fit. You donāt need to be a believer. You just need to see if you can fit this methodology into your style of trading.