EURUSD bias short. Bearish pattern on key level with healthy candle. Selling it.
CADJPY bias long. Bullish pattern on key level followed by 3 green candles. Buying
AUDNZD bias short. Bearish pattern, moving my stop to reduce risk
GBPUSD bias long. Stopped out for +138 pip profit
XAGUSD bias short. Bearish pattern on key level with 2 red bars after that. Selling.
EURJPY bias long. Bullish pattern on key level with 2 green candles after that. Buying.
AUDJPY bias short. Bearish pattern on key level with signals of rejection. Selling.
EURGBP bias short. Two bearish patterns has formed at same level, latest with good enough candle and with convergence of my channel and the key level. Selling it.
GOLD bias short. The sell is working very nice. It is wonderful when you place a trade and it instantly goes your way!
Almost all my trades are working as expected, except BRENT.
My analysis for today! I was a little busy on the afternoon, but I have some time now to do it.
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[li]USDMXN bias short. I’m looking at it with expectation. What is it going to do now? strong resistance, PA telling me that there is a war inside it. Waiting for a signal to sell![/li][li]GBPCHF bias long. Morning star pattern on key level and also on 61.8 retracement. Low risk big reward buy.[/li][li]EURCAD bias long. Price is near resistance, so I’m locking some more profit.[/li][li]EURUSD bias short. Making what seems to be a bounce on a support, so I’m locking some profit. Free trade here![/li][li]AUDUSD bias short. Sell pattern is here! So I’m selling it on a red candle.[/li][li]BRENT bias long. Making a buy pattern. Today candle should define my entry or not.[/li][li]SILVER bias short. Moving to BE because found some support.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias short. Making some PA that could change my bias. A close above 0.8218 will change my bias.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long. Pattern is showing support. Today’s candle should give me the buy signal.[/li][/ol]
USDMXN bias undefined.
EURCAD bias long. Moving my stop because I see strong resistance.
SILVER bias short. Locking more profit because resistance found
My analysis for today. I added one technical pattern that I look for clues from the market, it is the hikkake candlestick pattern.
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[li]EURAUD bias long. Moved stop to previous support to lock more profits.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias changed neutral. Maybe it will change bias soon to long, but don’t know.[/li][li]EURUSD bias changed neutral.[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. Getting ready to lock more profits when a new HL is made.[/li][li]CADJPY bias changed to neutral. Looking for more clues to move my stop soon.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias short. It is looking better for a sell soon.[/li][li]USDJPY bias changed to short. I see a probable sell pattern. If price breaks below 97 I’m going to sell.[/li][li]CADCHF bias changed neutral.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. Stopped out for -88 pip loss. Looking for re-entry or change in trend.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short. Some signals to start a sell soon.[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. Price is making a signal to buy.[/li][li]USDCHF bias neutral. Price broke the descending channel, so I’m waiting for a signal on what is next.[/li][li]USDCAD bias neutral. Price is on top of channel and showing signals that is going to reverse down.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias changed to neutral. Paying attention for developments on the pair to see if I should move my stop to BE soon.[/li][li]AUDUSD bias short. Price is in a retracement and could hit my stop if it continues that way.[/li][li]NZDUSD bias changed to neutral.[/li][li]GBPUSD bias changed to neutral.[/li][li]EURGBP bias canged to neutral. Reducing my stop[/li][li]BRENT bias long. Signals to buy, placing a buy on close above 102[/li][li]GOLD bias neutral. Price is in downtrend but I don’t feel comfortable selling at this price.[/li][li]SILVER bias short. Price is showing signals of bounce on the lower part of my trend channel. I’m locking more profits there moving to previous S/R.[/li][li]USDSGD bias changed to neutral. It seems like being in the 5 wave (Elliot). It is on the upper trend line and bounced on an S/R and on the line, that is the reason to having it as neutral.[/li][li]USDHKD bias changed to neutral.[/li][li]NZDJPY bias changed to neutral. I’m moving my stop to reduce my risk. It is ranging, so this could be very well a continuation to the south or a reversal.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias changed to neutral. Current P/A shows what can be the end of the down move.[/li][li]NZDCAD bias changed to neutral. Made a HL that could signal the end of the move.[/li][li]GBPJPY bias changed to neutral. Signals that the smaller down move is getting bigger, but not enough to change the my bias to sell.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias changed to neutral. Moving my stop to protect the position.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias changed to neutral. Mixed signals show end of the current up move.[/li][li]GBPAUD bias long. Making a buy signal soon.[/li][li]EURJPY bias changed to short. Trade was stopped out for -121 pip loss.[/li][li]EURCHF bias changed to short. Moving my stop to protect the trade.[/li][/ol]
My analysis for today. I’m only placing possible trades, changes on bias and move of stops.
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[li]AUDJPY bias changed to neutral. Stopped out for -200 pip loss[/li][li]AUDCHF bias short. Probable short on the pair soon.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias short. In range, and could make a short signal pretty soon[/li][li]USDJPY bias short. Setting my sell because I see a sell signal.[/li][li]SILVER bias short. Possible reversal signal, so I’m locking more profit setting tight my stop.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias mild long. Buy signal on key level. Placing a buy limit order.[/li][li]EURUSD bias short. New sell signal, so I’m moving my stop above previous S/R[/li][li]EURCAD bias long. Buy signal, setting a buy stop order.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias neutral. Moving my stop to BE if price reach 104.37[/li][li]CADJPY bias changed to neutral. Moving my stop to reduce risk.[/li][li]SILVER bias short. Stopped out for +210 pip profit.[/li][/ul]
I have updated stats. In fx pairs the stop should be between 0.8% of open price and 2.1%. If it is smaller then there is big risk of being stopped out early, if larger one could be risking too much for a tiny more probability of win.
Yesterday I didn’t made my daily analysis. Too much work on the office. This is today analysis
EURCHF bias neutral. Moving my stop higher to protect the position.
EURCAD bias neutral.
EURAUD bias neutral. Locking more profit because I see a swing to move the stop.
GBPAUD bias neutral. Moving my stop to protect the position.
AUDCHF bias neutral. Moving my stop
EURUSD bias neutral. The last trade was stopped out for a +203.4 pip profit
CHFJPY bias neutral. Locking more profit because I see a bullish pattern that gave me a support.
AUDCAD bias neutral. Moving my stop to protect the position.
BRENT bias neutral. Moving my stop to protect the position.
USDSGD bias long. Bought it.
As you can see, most of my pairs are neutral biased, that could mean consolidation before change of trend. Only time will tell. I think the next Friday is going to define what direction is going to take the FX market for the next weeks.
I’ve been following this thread for a while now even though i’ve been trading advanced patterns for the bigger part. Thought i would give this method a try too before deciding on which path to go. Btw, great job you are doing with your analysis and posting them here. I’m sure it helps a lot of guys out there.
Could you please specify for me what you mean with “0.8% of open price and 2,1%” regarding your stop loss? I do not exactly understand what you mean.
Of course! For example, if i’m buying eurusd at 1.3 my stop should be between 1.3-1.30.008 and 1.3-1.30.021.
If my obvvious support is in that range then it is good, if it is outside then I’m taking more risk of being stopped early or risking too much for small probability of win.
Ok, thank you very much. Out of curiousity: How come you choose that method instead of one that uses the average volatility to define a stop?
For example, i know many people who like using 1, 2 or 3 times the ATR as a stop loss.
Because if the volatility is higher under a certain period you are more likely to getting stoped out due to the markets “noise” independet of which price you bought or sold a pair. Or am i missing something?
ATR is not “logical”, I mean, it does not use support/resistance nor statistical information.
I’m using MAE/MFE of my previous trades to know what is the best statistical measures to place my stops.
Note that this measures are valid ONLY for this methodology, ONLY on daily time frame, ONLY when trading following the trend and using swings to place your entries and stops.
I recommend you that create your account on myfxbook and take your stats from there, with MAE / MFE. If I’m right, and we (the people who trade like this thread says) trade similar, then our MAE / MFE should be also similar.
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[li]USDSGD bias long. Is continuing my way. I see a forming swing that is going to enable me to move to BE.[/li][li]EURAUD bias long. New swing low enable me to move my stop. Locking more profits, +831 pips locked[/li][li]GBPAUD bias neutral. New swing enable me to move my stop and reduce risk.[/li][li]AUDCHF bias neutral. New swing enable me to move my stop and reduce risk.[/li][li]CADJPY bias netural. Moving to BE[/li][li]CHFJPY bias long. Price is making a retracement. When this move is confirmed as a retracement I will buy the pair.[/li][li]AUDJPY bias long. Same as CHFJPY[/li][li]AUDCAD bias neutral. Moving to BE[/li][li]AUDUSD bias short. Moving to BE[/li][li]BRENT bias neutral. Moving to BE. Well, the market of brent is closed, I’m going to move on Friday[/li][li]SILVER bias short. Waiting for a move to re-entry and sell.[/li][li]USDHKD bias short. Waiting for a swing high to setup a sell.[/li][li]GBPNZD bias long. Waiting to see if I can move my stop to BE.[/li][li]GBPCHF bias neutral. Moving to BE to protect the trade.[/li][li]GBPCAD bias neutral. Not moving my stop[/li][/ol]
As you can see, I moved most of my stops. Some locked some profit, some others reduced risk. I see that my equity is growing again, but still too soon to say anything. On Friday I’m going to see if the market bite me again or I bite it hahhahaha.
Some wild moves today! The result of low traffic because the 4 July. Tomorrow is the NFP and most of my trades are closed because moves today. The net result today is positive with some losers but other winners that made it for all the losers.
This is my analysis for today
EURCAD bias neutral. Stopped out for a -170 pip loss
EURAUD bias neutral. Stopped out for a +830 pip profit
GBPAUD bias neutral. Stopped out for -211 pip loss
AUDCHF bias neutral. Stopped out for -71.9 pip loss
BRENT bias neutral. I can lock profits, so I’m locking them once it is open again tomorrow.
GBPCAD bias neutral. Stopped out for -96 pip loss
Well, the market didn’t bit me, it rewarded me, that’s great! This are my thoughts for today.
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[li]GOLD bias short. I placed a sell trade on it.[/li][li]USDSGD bias long. It is wondering what to do at the previous high. I want to see it breaking that top on next week. If not, then I’m going to move my stop to lock profits.[/li][li]EURJPY bias neutral. It is about to change to long bias, so maybe on Monday or Tuesday I will buy it.[/li][li]EURNZD bias long. The last move was about to touch my stop, but it failed to do that. My current stop is below support and also it’s size is about the limit of the standard deviations of the MAE of winners (about 1.22% below the open price) If the stats are OK, then this stop will hold with 90% probability, and if not, then the trade is then a loser.[/li][li]CADJPY bias neutral. The pair is moving higher, and I see there is some probability of changing again to long bias. Note that my channel is in uptrend, but the current move of the pair is to the south, that is the reason to set a neutral bias instead of short.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias changed to long. The price action and the channel are aligned, i think that I’m going to buy on Monday, because the current move is strong enough for that. It could be strong enough to enable my buy on Sunday![/li][li]AUDJPY bias neutral. The pair price action makes me think about that the short opportunity is pretty soon. Will see in a couple days.[/li][li]AUDCAD bias changed to short again. Current price action is moving down. I like to see a drop below 0.9466 to confirm the move. Meanwhile my stop is locking small profit, so this is a free trade. (well, I know that for some folks 10 pips are all they look on a trade, but for this methodology, 10 pips are almost invisible![/li][li]WTI bias neutral. The pair is moving very well to the north, currently at +103 and without showing any signal to retrace. Too good for Mexico, that makes our oil more valuable, too bad for Mexicans, because that makes expensive our lives :([/li][li]BRENT bias neutral. About to change to long bias. I failed to move my stop today (I must admit that I forgot that completely! I was very busy testing a quant strategy for stocks and doing business with bitcoins and litecoins). So just placed a MT4 script that will move the stop once the market is open again.[/li][li]USDHKD bias short. Still waiting for a short signal.[/li][li]SILVER bias changed to short. I didn’t placed a sell because when I detected the change of bias the instrument already had moved more than my acceptable amount.[/li][/ol]
The AUD pairs are aligning. AUDxxx for shorts and xxxAUD for longs! Will see next week what shows!
Yesterday didn’t had time to make my analysis, but this is the analysis for today.
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[li]GBPUSD bias short. Thinking about shorting the pair.[/li][li]EURUSD bias short. Just sold the pair[/li][li]AUDCAD bias neutral. Stopped out for +8 pip profit.[/li][li]USDCHF bias long. Waiting for a retracement[/li][li]WTI bias long. Waiting for a retracement.[/li][li]USDHKD bias short. Waiting for a confirmation of the continuation of the move; maybe 4-8 hours more.[/li][li]NZDJPY bias long. Bought it. I is inside a down channel but also inside a bigger up channel. I see it bounced on a S/R and then bounced again on the next S/R. I expect a break of the channel, but if not, my stop is there to the rescue![/li][li]NZDCAD bias long. Bought it. It broke the down channel and then bounced on it so I think this is a good buy.[/li][li]EURJPY bias neutral. It went long for a day but it failed to make a higher high. I have my stop pretty near, just in the case that this fails to make a higher low also.[/li][li]NZDCHF bias long. Bought it. The pair extended enough in my favor to move my stop to break even, so I did that. This is now a free trade.[/li][li]USDJPY bias long. Just bought it.[/li][li]AUDNZD bias short. Just sold it. My stop is in the previous resistance.[/li][li]EURCAD bias short. Just sold it. My stop is two previous resistances.[/li][li]BRENT bias long. It has extended in my favor for more than 1 standard deviation of the MFE, so I’m following my trailing stop faster than normal to lock more profits. I moved my stop to previous smaller swing support.[/li][li]GOLD bias changed to neutral. It made a higher low, but a lower high. This could be a consolidation triangle that could break in any direction. Because weakness of the gold is still in the air, I think it will break to the south, but just in case I reduced my stop to the 2 previous resistance level.[/li][li]USDSGD bias long. It is near to the point where I’m going to move it to break even, maybe tomorrow.[/li][li]EURGBP bias long. Waiting for a higher low and a swing to confirm it to buy it.[/li][li]EURCHF bias neutral. The current swings are turning long, just as expected. If this trade succeeds then this could be a very predictable pair (with fibonacci retracements).[/li][li]EURAUD bias neutral. Price broke down the channel, so this could be the start of a big (if not huge) drop on that pair. This pair tends to move hundreds or thousand pips on each swing, so it is prefect for this methodology.[/li][li]EURNZD bias short. Stopped out for -479 pip loss (ouch!) Waiting for a swing and a confirmation of the trend to sell the pair.[/li][li]CADJPY bias long. Moved my stop to lock profits.[/li][li]CHFJPY bias long. I was expecting a break of a previous high, but that didn’t happened, and the pair is making an extended low. At this point the long move is still valid, it is at 0.786 retracement and showing support.[/li][/ol]
Some time of no posting here. I’m topped with work in the office, so barely have time to trade, and not to write! I expect next week I will have time to post, meanwhile one can see the myfxbook page. This month has been pretty bad, because I was not able to catch long enough trends and was stopped out frequently because the pairs are moving in ranges, big ranges, but not enough to develop a trend. But now some pairs are showing signals of starting a new trend, some continuation of previous, some others reversals.
Well the one thing that would take away from the potential profit of the trade is the bad entry you get then. Another similar point is that you could have had a break-even trade but now it will be a loss because price has moved away from your original identified entry. Just my 2 cents.
