The Gambling Den

The Lobby
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Hey traders out there- welcome to the Gambling Den.
Wanted to start a thread in case there were any folks who have an “interest” in discussing gambling tactics.
My favorite time of the year to gamble is upon us - NBA playoffs.

I’m up over 300% since post-season commencement and am pushing my bankroll to the limit this season.

Disclaimer: Now, gambling and trading are two “different” animals completely. But, I do feel that you can make informed gambling decisions, just as you can trading any investment vehicle. In trading, all we can do as buyers/sellers is look toward past movements of price, and market expectations for the future. Using this info, we take positions in hopes of the market moving in our favor.

In sports, we can look @ a team’s past performance in a similar fashion (at home wins/losses, last 10 games, against the spread, over/under performance, etc etc), factor in current expectations from professional analysts (coupled w/ your own “gut feelings”) and make some bets. I even mess around with live betting i.e. watching a game live and seeing where the momentum lies; placing live bets as the game goes on.

There are even simple Risk-to-Reward concepts which can be applied that we all know about through trading, to the wonderful world of gambling.

Now, I need to preface any subsequent post by saying this. Anyone who posts any opinion on how a bet may/may not work out, should not be taken as a “guarantee” of performance. In betting, you’re risking a fixed amount of money which will either be completely lost, completely returned (i.e. a push), or returned + winnings. For some traders, you can enter a position, and obviously recoup some of your money if price starts to move against you. In gambling, once the money is on the line, there’s no getting it back if you have bettor’s remorse.

With that said, I hope there are some other people out there who’d like to interact and share their strategies.

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Here’s the line for today’s NBA matchups as of 5/6/2014 3:05 PM EST.
When I get off work, I’ll post my analysis and picks.

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Matchups:

BROOKLYN NETS @ MIAMI HEAT 700PM EST
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS @ SAN ANTONIO SPURS 930PM EST

Single Bets:
-Brooklyn +8. Although in the last 5 away games, they’re 1-4 against the spread I think this is going to be a close one.
-Portland +6. 4-0 against the spread on the road over last 10 games. They’re on fire.
-Portland over 208. Previous 6 meetings, 4-3 favoring the over.
-Brooklyn under 193. As mentioned, think this is going to be close. Previous meetings favoring the under.

2 Team Parlay:
-Portland over 208 & Portland +6
-Brooklyn under 193 & Portland +6
-Brooklyn under 193 & Portland over 208

3 Team Parlay:
-Brooklyn under 193 & Portland over 208 & Portland +6

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Have you read Sharp Sports Betting by Stanford Wong? Great little book but seeing as your up 300% it might not be of great use to you

Also, Parlays have terrible EV, but you seem to be doing well with them. What’s your justification for using them?

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I actually have not, but it sounds interesting and may have to check the local library / amazon.
As for the Parlays- yes, I agree 100%. They are difficult to hit 9 times out of 10. But, when they do pay out, they pay out very well!

Typically, I’ll watch the entire game I’m betting on and try to analyze the momentum (crowd presence, unity, ball movement, field goal %, etc). If it looks like a parlay isn’t going to pay out, I’ll start live betting to recoup the small wage I originally placed. I also take the single bets for a 3-team parlay to cover my bases in case one doesn’t work out. It’s a bit risky, but I’ve had success with it so far.

The live betting can get a bit dicey though if you’re not careful, because you can really lose all of your money in a matter of seconds if you’re too greedy.
I like to live bet on individual Quarter spreads, point milestones, and occasionally if I see a key player is heating up, or missing all their shots, I’ll place bets on whether or not they’ll make their next FG attempt.

I like the round robin too, because that gives me a bit of a better chance over the 3team.

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Yo!

Here are the lines for tonight’s games:

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Now that we got the first game jitters out, I think the home teams can finally satisfy their fans.

WAS / IND @ 700 PM EST
Open Bets:
WAS/IND over 186 @ -105.
Indiana money line @ -190.

LAC / OKC @ 930 PM EST
Open Bets:
LAC/OKC under 215 @ -105.
OKC -5 1/2 @ -105.

Parlay’d 2team and 3team combo’s, but don’t feel like typing them out. The gist of my wagers are above.

As for last nights’ wagers:
Ended up 5% for the evening. Both OVER/UNDER bets were a push. And, I recouped some losses via live betting against the 3Q and 4Q lines.

If there’s not any solid interest to share bets / discuss I’ll most likely close this thread down in a few weeks.

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I don’t bet on the games, I just like watching them =P. Any early predictions for the conference finals/final matchups?

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Been interested recently in counting cards and blackjack. Does anyone have any good resources?

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Hmmmmm, interesting. I suppose there’d be professional gamblers who make or use indicators for sports just like in trading.

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Tons of math involved…the stats you can use to try and predict the outcome of a game are crazy! You can really lose yourself in the numbers if you dig deep enough.

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Crushed it last night…hit 2, 2 team parlays which paid out 2.5x each.

Having a crazy run right now- up 410% this post season.

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Do you live near a casino?

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Here are the lines for tonight:
Place those bets!

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