Slapfish, I’ll try to answer your question on Bernie’s behalf.
I’m still not sure I understand your question, but the only thing I can think of is that you are missing the point that the price has to CROSS the 10 ema and close on the other side. In other words, The 5-minute bar must open on one side of the ema and then close on the other side. Then you place your buy/stop at the appropriate point.
Thank you, that does clarify quite a bit. The original description of the system only says that it must CLOSE above or below the ema, it doesn’t say anything about crossing it. That narrows down the trades and makes more sense.
thanks orpips and thanks slapfish,
as it turns out slapfish you have identified a flaw in my original explanation. i thank you very much for that. i do believe that i have mentioned cross and close in other posts, but in beginning, i can see how someone may have gotten confused from what i had written. orpips, thank you for your attempt. i think this all comes under the heading of “i knew what i was doing,” but failed to offer it accordingly.
goji, bernie
hi all,
more answers for teddy et al:
i put together this system about six months ago, with the u/chf. i had been looking for this, that, and whatever else. initially, i looked at a simple cross and enter at the close of the candle. however, there were times when the candle may have had a long tail and thus my entry was actually in the opposite direction of momentum and thus many trades went against me. many went my way, also, but it just didn’t feel right. i kept tinkering and just happened upon setting up my order at the 5 or 0, above or below the high and low respectively. anyway, i worked with that in much of july, august, and september, and was pretty pleased with the results. thus, i decided to share. the rest of the story/changes are documented in the posts.
teddy, i got the impression that you really don’t realize what you have with the positive 7 pips. i have done this before but i will do it a little differently here.
i use approximately 80% of my bank roll on every trade. now, many people will tell you that you shouldn’t use more than 2%. well, placing that in perspective, i base my actual percentage off of what a loss might cost me. since i use a tight 10 pip stop loss, i am actually risking around 3.5% on each trade. this is one of the reasons i like the e/u over the u/chf. remember, in the u/chf, my S/L is 25, thus i must reduce the amount of money i put in play.
the following is based off of using the e/u:
with a $1000 account, i would long or short 30,000 oanda units, 3/10 PiP
your 7 pips would have produced $21.
with a $5000 account, i would long or short 175,000 oanda units, 1 3/4 pips
your 7 pips would have produced $122.50
with a $10,000 account, i would long or short 325,000 oanda units, 3 1/4 pips
your 7 pips would have produced $227.50
now, a $227.50 day equals $1,137.50 week, which produces a $4550 month, which produces +$50,000 per year, FROM A $10,000 ACCOUNT. please do not feel badly about generating 7 pips,
thank you for your work on my system. i believe your backtesting is done using the max either way. as stated before, i take a maximum S/L only occasionally. as soon as i enter a trade i am all about getting to not losing any money. i do this by moving my stop/loss which is very easy to do on oanda. actually, i was very pleased with the results you provided. i have no explanation for the lack of volatility in jan. feb. '08.
and now i, too, have written a ton.
later,
goji, bernie
thank you for your work on my system. i believe your backtesting is done using the max either way. as stated before, i take a maximum S/L only occasionally. as soon as i enter a trade i am all about getting to not losing any money. i do this by moving my stop/loss which is very easy to do on oanda. actually, i was very pleased with the results you provided. i have no explanation for the lack of volatility in jan. feb. '08.
Another factor would likely be that the backtesting was done using the full 8-11am period, whereas when you trade you always quit while you’re ahead.
Something else to keep in mind is that we are not robots! If you hit a losing streak, STOP. Don’t just keep going. Take the day off. Maybe take the next day off. Maybe demo trade to see if you just had bad luck, or if market conditions are actually not conducive to the method at the moment. There’s no need to just blindly enter trades and drop your account lower and lower.
Someone somewhere wrote that out of all the loads of systems posted all over the net, it’s likely that a majority of them would work and make you successful IF you have the discipline and money management to go with them!
Bernie,
Don’t get me wrong. 7 pips profit is way better than a 30pip lost a day.
Before i started reading your thread, i have been losing almost daily and most if not all of my losses were after i have made some profit initially before greed takes over and i end up losing. What i have learnt is the value of being positive even by a pip is way better than being negative. So you bet it was a good start for me. I also learn not to overtrade.
Its not so much your system that i learn but the attitute of a winning mentality. That is something i have to inculcate and i think i’m on the right track,thanks to you.We sometimes long for home runs which in reality happens once in a few weeks if we get lucky.Winning a few pips a day is something i believe should be the way for long term survival.At least to gain confidence at the start of a new system before going for a higher target.
Your 3.5% risk makes sense to me. I have since change my risk from 2% to 3% now.
Are you on demo or live? And oh yes, i entered my trades at 00 or 05 but added a 2pip spread on all the long entries. Should i be doing this? i’m a bit confused with that.
And yes my back testing is max out but i Breakeven when the price hit 4 or above pips.
The backtesting is for the full 8am -11am. Its objective is to assess the effectiveness of the system and yes we should stop when we reach our daily target as well as stop when we have 2 or 3 consecutive losses. Thank you Orpips, your comments are appreciated.
Once again, thanks for sharing your winning system and attitute.
Terima Kasih.
hi teddy, et al,
no, i do not demo my trades. another thing i believe in is actually trading a system to get a true flavor for how it is working. sometimes on a demo you may not trade the same because if you lose, you are really not losing anything. this is what i do, but that doesn’t make it right for everybody. i think it is right for me. remember, i trade oanda and i can use micro-pips. a couple of threads ago i stated that i invest about 80% of my bankroll on a trade. when working with something new, i would rather trade live using 5-10% of my bankroll. this is, in fact, what i did with this system. also, it probably took me a month of trading sucessfully before i moved all the way up to the roughly 80%. i just gradually increased the amount weekly.
also, i use the 12.5 TP, to encompass the spread. on oanda, unless at the time of news, the spread for e/u, is usually between .9 - 2.5. with the 12.5, i don’t have to worry about changing the TP all the time.
now, if you are doing something a little different about S/L, TP, etc. it can not be wrong if it is working for you. you made 7 pips, friday, there is nothing wrong with that!
later,
goji, bernie
Couple questions about SL to clear up; I looked back through the thread because I thought I remember it coming up before, but if it did, I missed it again:
With Oanda, are you entering an actual SL of 8 or so? I notice that when I put in 10 pip SL, Oanda automatically tacks on the spread, so if my SL is hit, I am actually out 12 pips (or whatever) rather than 10.
Can you tell us what the stages are at which you move the SL up? I know that you move it to BE once you hit +4, but it seems there are other stages before and after that, as I notice some trades have you ending up at -6 or +2 or whatever.
Thanks again for taking the time to share.
hi orpips, et al,
i hope you have all had a decent morning. that would be a great way to start a new week, month, etc. orpips, you must be a mind reader because i was going to address your question today, anyway.
unfortunately, i do not have any hard fast rules to share for managing the trade. remember my whole focus is on getting to BE. ok, i will be redundant again, I HATE TO LOSE, even more than i like to win.
today, i began moving the S/L even closer to price after being +4. you will see that i garnered an extra 9 pips this way. over time that 9 pips extra will start to add up. that said, i simply start moving the S/L. upon entering the trade, thus, when price moves to “0,” i move to -6, +2, move to -4, +4 move to BE, +6-7-8-9, move to +2-3-4. i hope this is making some sense, but price is usually jumping around and i just move the S/L line. good example; today in my first trade, we just missed a TP. i wound up taking a +5, had i been faster, i may have moved to +7 or +8, but it didn’t work out that way. to conclude, i would say that you must just practice with this and use some good common sense, realizing that the bottom line is to make money. i hope this helps, but i can see a whole host of questions coming in. today’s trades:
8:35 long 1.2630
8:38 exit 1.2635, had been to 1.2642 and just missed TP +5
8:45 entered order short, 1.2610
8:46 short 1.2610
8:49 exit 1.25975, hit TP, +12.5, +17.5
9:10 long 1.2620
9:14 exit 1.2622, had been to almost 1.2628, +2, +19.5
9:20 entered order short 1.2605
9:25 cancelled short order, entered order long, 1.2625
9:31 long 1.2625
9:34 exit 1.2627, had been to 1.2632, +2, +21.5
10:30 entered order short 1.2620
10:30 short 1.2620
10:37 exit 1.26075, hit TP, +12.5, +34
i am also going to start something new today. i am going to come back and work the last hour that the usa stock market is open. i have been doing some research on doing this and i think this is the week to start. thus, i will work additionally, between 3:00 pm and 4:00 pm est. (new york city time)
later,
goji, bernie
Hi Goji
Thanks for your time to post on a regular basis.
I’ve found your system to be quite helpful in determining entry points.
I don’t want to confuse anyone, but I do want to share how I’ve been using your system.
I have also been reading through the Never Lose Again thread.
Here’s my hybrid of the two thread ideas:
When the one hour & daily candles are the same color…
I watch for a close across the 10 ema on a 5 min chart in the SAME direction.
Then use your entry rules.
I’ve read or heard a good system needs a setup and a trigger.
Your normal setup is a close across the EMA, I padded the setup to look for higher time frame agreement. So far I have 12 trades with no losers 
(Trading live at $0.40 per pip)
Thanks again for your posts. I’ll continue to follow.
Hi Bernie and guys.
Thanks for sharing your system.
I started to demo it today, pretty good results, i will be playing with different SL and TP and see how it works for me.
The only problem i had so far is that sometimes while im doing the order the price already went down or up, so i end entering between 1 to 3 pips late, but still works.
I�ll keep posting about my experience with it.
Thanks
hi all,
well, the first trade was successful. at first, i will only work the one trade but i will watch to see how things are going. i believe what i am doing is taking advantage of the volatility of the last hour of stock market trading. i have been reading of the sometimes parallels between the stock market and the carry trades and lately, even the e/u. it is what gave me the idea. i went back and checked the range of the e/u in the 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm est time slot over the last month and found a 63 pip average. i figured that is enough to get a +12.5 trade out of. today it worked. the trade:
3:15 entered order short at 1.2650. it appeared to me that the preceeding candle closed right on the 10 ema. price had been coming down so i entered this short order.
3:19 short, 1.2650
3:25 exit, 1.26375 +12.5 +46.5 to beging the new month.
several responses: fort2w, nice to know that something i have done has helped you. it is certainly difficult to be negative about 12 straight winning trades. i hope your success continues.
ivan, you may want to start to set your trade up in anticipation. my trade this afternoon is an example. i saw price coming down. i placed the order about a minute before the signal candle closed. now, the order was not executed right away. had price turned around on me and moved higher, i would have cancelled that order. i agree that sometimes things do tend to move very quickly. on oanda, i can have the order ready to submit ahead of time. if price goes where i want, i hit submit, if it does not, i hit cancel. i hope this helps. let me know! i also know there are many different trading platforms out there. let us know the different S/Ls and TPs you are using and how they are working out.
later,
goji, bernie
ps. slapfish, are you still out there? i haven’t heard from you!
hi all,
my recent ps to slapfish planted a notion in my mind. i just went back over all of the threads, thus far. in doing so, i listed all of the people who have provided a post or two. some of these people include: dwerth, ravel, sam111,
misterboy, pipgobbler, doggie 01, dblyson, bluesinsoul, robert lee, sverigesson, kajan, fxgirio, and hoss.
now, i am not looking for kudos, my system is working fine for me. what i was thinking is that others may benefit from any additional responses you may have as to either the succes you are having or are not having with this strategy. adding something may help others. several days ago orpips helped with a response to slapfish as an example. we are all here to help each other. anyway, do with this as you will!
later,
goji, bernie
Okay, I have started today trading this system live using tiny amounts. I am interested to see how Bernie did today, because so far I’ve had two entries (8:57 and 9:19) and due to my efforts to ignore my whims/fears/greed and stick to Bernie’s rules, I got stopped out on both after moving stop to BE at +4. Both would have been profitable without moving the stop.
This is why they say not every system will work for every person. When demoing this system, I never had results as good as Bernie’s because I could not bring myself to move the stop up so tight for fear of being stopped out before profiting. Doing it live, I chafe each time I BE because I see those trades going on to be profitable (not to mention that “winning” trades only getting me to BE means just one bad trade out of three will leave me negative for the day), even though objectively I have seen from Bernie’s posts that it works out over time.
Trading psychology really is fascinating – if frustrating 
hi orpips, et al,
just a brief note. yes, it looks like you had them correct. this has been a very frustrating day, you are right. on your second trade, i took +4 pips after a move to +8, but that is me. this would absolutely be a frustrating day to start. the only good thing, thus far, is that you are not negative!
later,
g,b
Hi Orpips.
Same thing happened to me, too many trades closed between +1 to +4, so if i have only one looser, it could neglect most of the profits
Maybe the trades need a bit more room, i will try starting tomorrow with +10 TP and -10 SL, maybe once im at +5 i will move the SL to -5…
By the way, i know the market moves a bit fast sometimes, but when i trade i will be logged on msn, <[email protected]>
If anyone wanna add me, we can chat about the trades there too
Laters
I had 2 trades, -10 and +12 so positive for the day!
Bernie, I’m honestly surprised that you ever hit +12.5 if you routinely trail your stop at 4 pips once you pass +4.
For everyone, the close managing of the trade as Bernie does is essnetially impossible to duplicate with backtesting, since it is dependent on moment-to-moment price action. You would have to find entries with the 5m chart, then switch to the 1m chart to play out the trade; even 1m isn’t really accurate enough, but I don’t think the historical data has tick by tick info.
Rykookyr, when were your trades?
Ivan, I’d be careful about making changes like that, especially based on one day. That’s kind of my point – look back through this thread and see two months of Bernie’s results with very few losses, period, and almost no losing days at all. If you try to tweak rules based on individual trades or days, you might well just end up making things worse.
edit: …aaaaaand another BE on another trade that hit TP shortly thereafter. Gah!
hi all,
i just finished writing out a detailed report on today’s very unusual trading. when i hit submit, i got booted off. i guess that is to be expected on a day like today. i will see how much of it i can remember, heck i even semi-quoted from a scene in the movie “rudy” but it is now lost somewhere out in cyberspace. i am sending this now and will try to update shortly.
goji, bernie
Hey all,
I’ve been trying out Forex trading for about a month now, studying endlessly, going through pip school, reading books and checking out these forums. I’m starting to break even in the Oanda demo and I’ve been looking for a good strategy. I thought I developed the most awesome strategy ever, but alas, I can’t even follow it. Who knows if it even works, but it’s too complicated and I don’t have the patience. I love the simplicity of the goji system, and I’m going to give it my best shot. Today I made two trades on the EUR/USD and wound up with +13 pips. It’s a start I suppose. I’m antsy to go live but I just need to make sure I have the discipline to follow the rules. Overall I’m a pretty patient person, but my inclination is to scalp as fast as possible. I’m so ridiculous I’ve even tried scalping the ten second charts. Of course, I realize now that’s just noise. Trading the five minute charts is not too slow, yet it will still require patience from me, so I think it’s the perfect trade-off.
So anyway, thanks Bernie for all the great info and results, and to all the other posters too. I’ll be following this closely. I’m cautiously optimistic about my Forex possibilities. I’ve always read that 95% of traders ultimately fail, and I would have been among those if I didn’t have the patience to demo and study. But, at the same time I’m not going to come out and say “Oh man, I’m gonna make a million bucks in two weeks!”. In the height of my excitement I told my girlfriend I thought she might be able to quit her job in two years. She was all “Don’t get my hopes up!” and I was all “True that!”. I was naive. So now I try to keep my emotions in check. Thanks again, count me in (for now)!