The Great British Pound - is there life after Brexit!

I doubt there have been many issues that have pervaded the sterling-based currency markets more deeply and widely, and for such a prolonged period than Brexit.

But now the UK departure from the EU is all but completed - and life beyond Brexit starts in earnest.

The UK is a very large economy and has a whole host of new opportunities ahead as it reviews its trade and political relationships with the EU, the US, the commonwealth and anyone else come to that!!

It also has a strong government with a workable majority in Parliament to “get things done”. Whether these things turn out to be the right things remains to be seen…

Surely, 2020 is not going to be a one-way street for the Pound and there are going to be some interesting and exciting moves as time progresses - and that is why I have started this thread.

I just spent a few days in the UK meeting with some friends and colleagues and there is an air of optimistic anticipation as the doorway out of the Brexit depression and frustration opens and we catch a glimpse of new horizons beyond.

Britain is Britain again!

But what will that bring for the country and its currency - that is what I want to follow here in this thread as an outside view from an ex-pat never far from his roots…


Sounds like Big Ben is in sympathy with a renewed optimism, ringing in the New Year at midnight in its newly renovated colours:

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain’s Big Ben bell in parliament’s landmark clock tower will ring at midnight on New Year’s Eve, marking the start of a year for the first time since its new face was revealed from under scaffolding halfway through restoration work.

Whilst I don’t intend running this as a trade journal I will highlight the major moves that I see. My intention is to use both an MA-based analysis and the application of various PA-based techniques.

By way of example only, I bought this morning on a pull-back towards the Weekly 200SMA. We’ve been up to 50+ pips and moved stop to B/E for the rest of today. Will decide whether to hold overnight towards the close - if the trade is still open!

Not surprisingly, markets are slow as we approach the year end.

I have closed this first position for +23 pips for the same reason even though there is no change in the basic charts structure from daily downwards showing an overall optimistic sentiment. We are currently hugging the highs of last week’s range.

Im really glad someone posted a thread about this.

It will continue to be one of the biggest stories in FX for years.

As the EU implodes and as the Uk absolutely thrives

Its like the UK has been awokened from a curse - that never had any benefits for the UK and many for Europe.

Having followed this topic for years before even the referendum I am still waiting to hear of one benefit of being in the EU where we cant have an equal benefit from not being in it.

The GBP i honestly think is going to at some point be one of the worlds strongest currencies.

With the $ and € ropey, many will start looking seriously at UK.

The leaving of Mark Carney will also be massive as he is a big reason why cable fell so hard after brexit

Good riddance.

We now have an ungridlocked parliament, a marxist anti semitic labour obliterated.

Plus its now enshrined in law we actually cant have an extension .

Business needed certainty, and now weve got it.

Ironically Uk was taking in lots of new overseas investment even at the height of the uncertainty.

Im sure soon the floodgates will open.

Boris Johnson and Dominc Cummings really did pull a blinder.

Im overjoyed.


Thanks for the good post, John! :slight_smile:

You said:

This is an interesting issue. It is certainly true that the WAB includes a clause prohibiting the UK parliament from seeking an extension to the trade negotiations with the EU, but…

…I am not so sure that it does actually mean the UK can’t have an extension!

Afterall, what the UK parliament does, the UK parliament can undo, if it suits its purposes! So with a working government majority, this clause can easily be amended and/or extended if and whenever the government feels it is in its own best interests to do so.

So it is actually a rather clever tactical and psychological addition that puts pressure on the EU to meet this deadline whilst not creating a obstacle that could backfire on the UK itself.

It is only my personal view, but I feel the EU has the greatest burden in these negotiations in having to satisfy all 27 member states that the UK is not regaining all the benefits of EU membership but without the obligations.

The other EU states will be watching this closely and there are forces in many member states that are promoting exit from the union.

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The GBPUSD has remained unchanged overnight. However, we need to remember that, as always, a currency pair comprises two currencies and not one. If we look at the dollar index then we see that the dollar weakness is continuing and will inevitably reflect in the related strength of its currency pairs:

There is relatively little news as we approach the year end and I guess the most important message at present is:


And with that I wish everyone a

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Well I think your pessimism in unjustified.

Granted we all now know the extent of how Uk politicians are in it for themselves, but we no longer have a remain parliament with the likes of Benn, Bercow, Letwin, Hammond to deal with - Boris really got rid of all them in spectacular fashion.

The people want Brexit - and Boris isnt going to let down all those labour leavers he won over.

I am was bitterly disappointed when Boris said we would leave Oct 31st - but my faith in him has been restored.

I actually think he is going to play very hard ball with EU - now their economy is going down the pan.

The mumblings out of brussels is they are now very worried UK will just walk away unless they offer Uk something very substantial.

31st Jan is going to be a very special day for the UK.


Sorry, but what pessimism? I didn’t think I said anything pessimistic? Certainly not from a UK perspective?

Have you misunderstood or did I write unclearly?

All I said was that the limitation on extension was an obstacle for the EU but still an open door for the UK if they want an extension when the time comes?

I mean the potential for politicians to keep extending

Aint gonna happen

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I certainly didn’t mean that other MPs/parties could get in the way!

What I was trying to convey was that with a working majority nothing can change this law unless the Conservatives - at that time- decide it would be in their own interests to extend, for example, to complete various parts of the negotiations, etc.

In other words, the pressure is all on the EU whilst BJ has all the cards in his hands, including the option to adjust the end date if his party, alone, decide it would be worthwhile. I.e. to avoid shooting themselves in the foot as a result of a legal clause they they can, if desired, change.

I considered that a very positive and shrewd move from the Conservatives. As you say, we are in a whole new world now that we have a majority government.

I don’t see any difference in our views here at all!

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Fair point - we do agree - i just cant see Boris extending under any conditions - even if it means no deal.

Well so far those are all the signs.

We are seeing some nice movement on GBPUSD today, I guess partly due to the continuing weak USD performance.

I am a bit irritated that it is Year-end when, for accounting purposes only, I don’t like to keep open positions over the year end, and so I am only really doing day trades yesterday and today.

Trouble is, that has meant missing pips here. There was no real need to exit yesterday apart from the “daytrade” issue and I was (very late) in today because of other things to think about!

So my trading here is rather inefficient, and missed some pips from the move, but still better than having missed part of move that was already anticipated. I should have entered in the red circle!

But, anyway, currently around 40 pips up as we broke over 1.32, question is now will be hold and progress or fall back as the day fades. Have to again think about moving the stop to B/E as this is also this year’s last “day trade”

Well that’s me done for this year, closed out for 45 pips, should have been more with a better entry! This latest move started around 1.30 just after the Christmas hols while I was away in the UK. So I guess I’m content with these last few crumbs from yesterday and today.

I already wished everyone a sincere Happy and Prosperous New Year, but it has already disappeared above! :grin: but one can never say too often: