Are you using MT4 or another platform? On metatrader I’ve used 20,0,2 as the settings.
yeah it’s MT4, you mean Period:20 Shift:0 and Deviation:2 ? apply to Close right?
hey guys
sorry for delaying all this so long, but i finally have some results in my hands.
let’s go from the start:
everything is tested on EUR/USD, starting from 23rd of july, starting balance 3000 eur, on 5min tf, with 0.1 lots. ea is limited to max 15 opened positions at once, and i noticed that the all timeframes behave the same, only takes longer to reach same results.
as you remember, bb && psar without gann hilo are a disaster
i’ve included the gannhilo and tested following cases (i’ll just state for going long, for short is vice versa):
case 1:
-new bar
-psar change
-psar over the bb
-gann hilo over candle high
-no stop loss, take profit 10 pips
result:
while we have constant growth, equity and balance split pretty fast. equity stays down and especially from 3rd of august, when sell positions are opened, and price goes from 1.40 to 1.45. as i remember from the august to september, there are few fluctuations, which will lock larger part of trades either sell on low price, or buy on high price (i was leaving strategy tester to work all night on m5 tf, and it only completed one month in length, and in that time, difference between equity and balance gets bigger. if we add any type of stop loss, it’s a disaster, and balance goes very quickly to 0.
case 2:
-it doesn’t have to be new bar (which leads to rapid opening of 15 positions at once in some cases - in 15 ticks, 15 positions)
-psar change
-psar over bb
-gann hilo over candle high
-no stop loss, take profit 10 pips
result:
this one goes right up. 2000 euros in 10 days… not bad. very little difference between equity and balance… BUT… no stop loss. and when 3rd august comes, 15 sell positions stay open, and… bye bye equity… like we see it in the picture bellow. also, from the report you can see only looses were 15 shorts when i stopped the test (well, logically since we have no stop loss).
[I]*note: don’t let the small equity difference on close trick you. when price continues to 1.45, equity will be down to 0, especially if 15 trades are open at once… when i have the time, i’ll let this test again but with less or one position per new bar[/I]
Bars in test 18901
Ticks modelled 3099491
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 242
Initial deposit 3000.00
Total net profit 1790.60
Gross profit 2256.44
Gross loss -465.84
Profit factor 4.84
Expected payoff 5.33
Absolute drawdown 899.52
Maximal drawdown 2996.26 (58.79%)
Relative drawdown 58.79% (2996.26)
Total trades 336
Short positions (won %) 166 (90.96%)
Long positions (won %) 170 (100.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 321 (95.54%)
Loss trades (% of total) 15 (4.46%)
Largest
profit trade 7.09
loss trade -31.84
Average
profit trade 7.03
loss trade -31.06
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 321 (2256.44)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 15 (-465.84)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 2256.44 (321)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -465.84 (15)
Average
consecutive wins 321
consecutive losses 15
(more cases to follow)
That is correct.
Thanks for following up with this! SO it does seem like there is some potential profit to be made. With the tests you ran though it’s more of when the trades are automated that we’d have positions open like that. I don’t think I can open positions quick enough to be staring tick-by-tick haha!
Thanks for the data and if you run any other tests I’d love to see the results and whether this is worth implementing into an EA.
hilarious graph. Where are all the losses?
hi, sanmiguel
it seems that you haven’t read the entire post. this is a test WITHOUT stop losses. then, there can be no losses, right?
we all know that it is very dangerous not to use mm, this is just for testing and observing purposes.
and why is the graph hilarious even without losses?
soul, i’ll do more cases, but i don’t think i can make a valid EA for this. not so easy at least. i think there is a large number of options that should be taken into account. i found it for now that live trading could is way more effective then automated. of course, this ea is pretty simple now, but… we’ll see
No, it’s fair enough, I only read the basics, it’s just that when you see a graph of test results with a straight line, it immediately says to me it won’t work in the real world. No-one can live through massive draw downs…
case 3:
-new bar
-psar change
-psar doesn’t have to be over the bb
-gann hilo over candle high
-no stop loss, take profit 20 pips
-max 10 open positions at the same time
result:
well, the graph is pretty self explanatory. equity separates from balance and stays down. positions stay open, and price goes other way. if i include stop loss, only way for ea is down, because of the price fluctuation. oh, yes. i used 15 min tf now, to see if maybe the indicators need more room to breathe, but result is the same. the indicators must be observed, and not left automated.
and the report:
Bars in test 6301
Ticks modelled 2782549
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 1442
Initial deposit 3000.00
Total net profit -219.38
Gross profit 3364.21
Gross loss -3583.59
Profit factor 0.94
Expected payoff -0.86
Absolute drawdown 877.27
Maximal drawdown 2086.52 (44.04%)
Relative drawdown 44.04% (2086.52)
Total trades 254
Short positions (won %) 118 (91.53%)
Long positions (won %) 136 (100.00%)
Profit trades (% of total) 244 (96.06%)
Loss trades (% of total) 10 (3.94%)
Largest
profit trade 14.33
loss trade -645.47
Average
profit trade 13.79
loss trade -358.36
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 244 (3364.21)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 10 (-3583.59)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 3364.21 (244)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -3583.59 (10)
Average
consecutive wins 244
consecutive losses 10
i was thinking to conduct few more cases, but when i think on how they would behave, it all comes down to the same result. well, this is it from me.
i can give you the ea, if someone wants to continue, and we can discuss on ideas from you, and test again. but i recommend to lean on yourself, watch the screen and make the right calls
If I may request one more test just to see the effect of having a stop loss in place? Drawdown is large but limiting the stops to 15 pips, and targetting 20 pips, what kind of a result happens?
Let’s say we modify case 3 as it seems the most accurate. 15 pip SL, 20 pip TP.
no problem
i’ll give you results tonight
HI markoc, long time never visit this thread… ur testing looks promising… hope to see some good results!!! thanks
Hi guys,
Just spent the last 2 hours reading this thread!!
I’m a little confused though.
From the original strategy which had the aim of capturing big moves on a 4hr time frame, it seems that somewhere 1/2 way through the thread, it has become a scalping strategy!!!???
Not entirely sure I understand what went on there?!
Cheers,
GT3RS
Anyone can make EA for this system?
Nice method IcYcLoUd, too bad i only got to see this now. But nonetheless i shall try paper trading with your method! Really excited to see the results. I will post the results of the trades here as well.
I’ve noticed that after your very first post on your trading method, there were lots of tweaks and suggestions given to others on how your method can be improved. But i’ve decided to try out the very first version of your method posted by you. And once i get the hang of it i will test out the other tweaks and suggestions that the others have advised.
Keep up the good work! I am from SG as well, aspiring to be a part-time trader
you gotta have a lot of capital to do this right? When you’re looking at the trend, is it base off the daily or 4hour?
aaron:
For almost years, i’m never replied… yup… its on 4 hour chart =)
sup cloud, are you still using this system? how’s it going for ya? Also, would it be smart to use this system with only $200 on me?
hey, guys, here are the results… much better then i’ve expected, but not good enough. (from august 1st to october 10th.)
Bars in test 13763
Ticks modelled 2253395
Modelling quality n/a
Mismatched charts errors 3066
Initial deposit 3000.00
Total net profit -546.27
Gross profit 6620.17
Gross loss -7166.44
Profit factor 0.92
Expected payoff -0.47
Absolute drawdown 1029.72
Maximal drawdown 1087.21 (35.56%)
Relative drawdown 35.56% (1087.21)
Total trades 1169
Short positions (won %) 0 (0.00%)
Long positions (won %) 1169 (41.06%)
Profit trades (% of total) 480 (41.06%)
Loss trades (% of total) 689 (58.94%)
Largest
profit trade 14.21
loss trade -10.67
Average
profit trade 13.79
loss trade -10.40
Maximum
consecutive wins (profit in money) 16 (217.23)
consecutive losses (loss in money) 17 (-179.89)
Maximal
consecutive profit (count of wins) 217.23 (16)
consecutive loss (count of losses) -179.89 (17)
Average
consecutive wins 3
consecutive losses 4
what usually happens after a Sideway? does it start going up? or down?? can u tell by looking at the trend?