The importance of portfolio diversity

The snippet below represents the top 90% of value of our crypto portfolio. The crypto currency Jewel is one of two I invested in last November. The other is Harmony (ONE token). They work as a pair in a game called DeFi Kingdoms which I spend about an hour a day “playing”. Characters, purchased for Jewel tokens, go on quests and earn income. They are NFTs. Also within the game is a “garden” in which you sow seeds. The seeds are a liquidity pairing of Jewel and ONE.

These currencies peaked in Jan22, less than two months after I committed funds, and our holding almost tripled. Since then, Jewel has tanked until recently by 80%. I couldn’t figure out why our holding was only down by 20%, until it dawned on me how much income we were making from the game. The interest on the currency in the garden on 19Nov21 when I first invested was 1,250% APY equivalent. It is still 326%, having fallen to 250% but that has increased recently, as is the TVL locked. More importantly, my heroes have been creating income to the tune of around 5% a week of their value. It is quite a complicated equation, but this week after a huge rise in Jewel value in USD, we are up from the start by 21%, and if the Jewel ever did return to its peak, we would be up 328%. If its value stands still we may continue to earn about 5% a week from the NFTs whose quantity I have been able to double without adding any further capital to this game.

It will continue to go up and down like a yoyo but I expect it to become an increasing proportion of our portfolio which is already far too high. I will be looking for opportunities to divest soon, but only by as much as it has increased by. Ideal target is when it gets back to double the original investment, then sell half of it, so that the entire holding cost nothing.

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I admire your control over crypto which to me is an alien concept I cannot understand. And no, I don’t want to learn either because I’m deep into a FX 80% PROFITABLE STRATEGY.

Nice portfolio! I have a similar portfolio just a few different coins like matic, bnb

Phewwwwww. That would be incredible.

Smart move.

Quite balanced portfolio :+1: but it seems strange that you hold 15% XRP but don’t have any NFTs which are extremely popular nowadays. Have a look at haterace. In terms of gaming mechanics and reward policy the game is absolutely worth your attention, my opinion :wink:

And just to show - diversity cuts both ways. Despite DFK Jewel losing nearly 90% of its value, I continue to trade the Jewel-based NFTs, maintain Jewel in the gardens at 300% APR, whilst also boosting Jewel in the Avalanche gardens to the tune of nearly 1,000% APR. This is a really turbulent storm between ridiculous gains in Jewel value trading and liquidity pairing Jewel versus “impermanent loss”. The only determinant is how impermanent the losses are - days, weeks, months or millenia? :rofl:

Thankfully all crypto investments are funds I am prepared to lose. I said that back in 2020 and I maintain that healthy cultural attitude. Can we really expect to do a 100X without the parallel expectation of total loss?

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Let’s say you do (which I hope you won’t) end up losing it all, what’s the mindset there you think? Like it was fun while it lasted? Good learning activity perhaps? Exciting hobby? Thinking about times like these when all the markets are down lol.

Hi,
The mindset (actually the strategy) back in 2020 was to invest up to 5% of our wealth in crypto. We only managed to invest about 3.5% at the most until the actual exceeded the plan by 200%. Since then we have not moved fiat funds either into or out of crypto.

We now reach an interesting time. We are still cash positive in our crypto fund but now approaching the end of our second year, we are only about 2X since the start in May 2020. So to date we still doubled our funds invested in two years which is a 42% per year compounded. It reminds me of 1999 to 2002 when our property portfolio doubled, and our capital went up 6X. With those kinds of historical returns, that will perhaps explain why our “mindset” was more about diversification to include 5% crypto in our portfolio, and not about fun, exciting hobby. Now is the time to move more funds out of silver, and make that other 1.5% available to get back into more crypto - with about 100 times the knowledge about the sector than I had two years ago. :joy:

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Compared with my post of 27Mar22, note that the combined Jewel and Harmony has fallen from 31% to 12% of the portfolio, whilst BTC has risen from 28% to 38%, neither of which I have traded since March.

Today is a great example of why diversification is so important. If I only had say Luna, or was heavy with a latge % of just Luna and say another cryptocurrency, I’d be even poorer today!

Man, compared to all the losses I’m seeing across all markets right now, this is REALLY GOOD.

Yes as I talk to you while eating instant ramen. :joy:

Last night I bought more Jewel :crazy_face:.
This “DFK game currency” is down 94% from its peak. Yesterday I bought my 111th Hero (NFT) in the game and have sold 61 of them for an average “business plan” mark-up that equates to a plan to double the quantity of tokens per year.

You may well ask the question "What’s the point of doing all that buying and selling work to make a trading margin on an asset that tanks by 94%? My point is that the on-plan doubling of the quantity of Jewel owned by active trading achieved its objective. This is one of three potential income sources from NFT investments that I first started on 1Jan2022. The other two potential income sources are the in-game income earned by the Heroes every time they participate in a quest (estimated at 5% to 10% per week of Hero value in Jewel) and the third is “growth of Jewel in BTC terms” which is the -94% value decrease in USD terms, which is about a -50% decrease in BTC terms. DFK (Jewel and ONE) were only ever intended to be "up to 20% of our portfolio, and that combination is now 12% in BTC terms. I still am of the opinion that the reward / risk ratio of this component of our crypto portfolio is the best we have. If I am wrong, I am wrong. I do not think the token will disappear. It may well languish around the 95% loss, or even get to 98% loss, but I believe the root cause of the collapse of Jewel was a known “work around” that was unethically applied to the Jewel lock in period that was not caught early enough, and whose impact was far greater than expected. A series of errors of judgment of tokenomics impact in a fast moving environment I have faith in the Dev team to continue world class development at breakneck speed. At the end of the day, who gets to be exempt from all risks? Banks? National Treasuries? Stocks?

I had to ask myself if this is chasing falling knives, but decided this was more to do with my faith in the longevity of the game expansion cross-network, and in the absence of any other crypto to concentrate on I made the exchange.

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This perspective right here is crucial.

Good for you. I on the other hand, am pausing for now as I no longer have cash to deploy lol. I already have so many dips I need chips now hahaha

I feel for you. No doubt you are on the right path, and you have soooooooooo many more years than I in which to achieve that dream.

How I have internalised this with recent events?

When we did a mass “onramping” to crypto back in May 2020, and a further increase in about August 2020, my wife said “gosh - should we be putting more than 5% into crypto?” I said that part of our plan was to eventually remove all of our capital if it did grow that much faster than we had planned", so we stopped at 3.5% instead of on-ramping 5%. Now I have started contracting again after my operations during the past 15 months, and feel well enough to continue that contracting work, it’s a bit like Christmas. Hindsight is wonderful, and although we bought into BTC at between $10K and $20K so we have been protected (so far) against the predicted carnage that has happened, I have internalized this as a lesson learned, that has yet to put us in deficit, and can now plan a slower, more gradual “dollar cost average” approach to the next 3 years, whilst improving our “trading contribution” at a slower pace than we have been doing since Jan2022. Looking back our baseline crypto “plan” was to achieve a 25% per year ROIC. At peak, the 6X result made the plan seem laughable, but the long term goal is still 25% per year ROIC. And that is because if we achieve that we will have a “more than comfortable” retirement. Roll on inflation, It is our friend. We have highly leveraged property that took a beating for over a decade. It seems that experience may soon be long forgotten. Three times in my lifetime, UK property values have doubled over 3 years. With a bit of luck, we may be in sight of the fourth time that may happen. Just waiting for the banks to raise their first time buyer offers to 100%+ of valuation. Muhahahaha

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Crazy.

Foreal though, I hope that when I do get to your age, I will have the same level of curiosity and persistence to learn new things and that I won’t shun things merely because it’s “for young people” or that because I’m too old do be doing x, y, z. You’re an inspiration to us all here - or to me at least!

Hi, thanks for the compliment. A very long day today. I just got back from a face to face meeting with my 14 year old intern - the first one I have agreed to mentor for over five years. He is the son of our favourite builder who is a tenant in one of our North West properties. Many people asked why I waste my time with “children”. I corrected their 19th century cultural attitude, and advised them that I was a school governor for 2 years (a charitable contribution of skills to a private school). Best practice advised by AGBIS (Association of Governing Bodies for Independent Schools) of which the Headmaster was a member, was that students in the age categories 11 to 18 could be referred to as “young adults” to achieve the cultural and behavioural shift that is necessary to avoid adversarial situations and to try to get teachers to treat the students as “equals” in terms of “top down cultural reform”. Whilst the head was on board with this (a leader), many of the staff and the senior leadership team for the upper school were, to put it politely, resistive.
On the matter of financial control, the school was both a Limited Company, so needed to comply with Companies House standards (I refer to that generally as “authority documents” and require legal specialisation so you don’t lose your licence to operate (sound familiar for the future of crypto?), and was also a registered charity, so needed to comply with authority documents from the Charities commission. Thankfully we had a barrister on board as a new governor.

What has this got to do with trading? My intern has a passion for crypto. I am unsure of the numbers, but I think he turned £20 seed capital in to about £800. For sure he got lucky, but now he has seen the Q1 losses across the board, and has put that stuff on hold.

He is 70% complete on his main task which is to obtain the blockchain basic certification by watching and taking notes on a series of online videos with Q&A with a minimum pass mark for each section - about 7 hrs in total. I spent 3 hours with him tonight, and spoke to his step father (his UK defined legal guardian) to ensure we complied with suitability requirements which in the UK require a basic background check (eg child molesters. Two things that benefit my company having volunteered to be an intern provider and provide apprentice guidance on “the gig economy” whose Health and Safety compliance consists of Display Screen Equipment course (he has a certificate for that) and cannot provide the Health & Safety at Work act because the gig economy works in the Metaverse - HSE act does not have a specific minimum set of rule that describes how Metaverse virtual offices comply because the authority documents cannot keep up with the speed of crypto and most teachers, governors and internship providers don’t know what those rules are.

The specific internship (if the candidate is interested) will be an offer of new venture participation, and because he is “under the age of consent to legally sign an NDA, a partnership agreement for profit share” I asked his father to be the legal guardian who can sign such on behalf of the proactive gig worker to take it forward. The young adult is aware that one girl in the US has made multimillion dollars trading NFTs and a person of 11 years old has made over $1M. The future plan is to transition the physical time I spend looking for setups and entries when buying and selling NFTs, of which I have established over the past four months that I THINK I have found the plan and plan algorithm to ensure a 90%+ win rate at an average markup that far exceeds what my business profit rate needs to be. So I am not philanthropic - just following the business plan to find highly motivated (to the point of being obsessive) with a potential to open another income stream within our business. A lot of work yet to do on structure, conformance plan to authority documents, fierce attention to governance (which is absent from nearly all of the 20 or so “Roadmaps” and whitepapers I have read. He may fill one of the many roles in future that I need to find and bring on board to ultimately create a business. As a co-founder, he may earn enough shared profit from doing the grunt work whilst I guide and reconfirm that the trade plan has a repeatable, low volatility positive edge.

And what do people do if they think they have found a positive edge? Provide “knowledge transfer” to customers who are keen to “franchise the business model” and are willing to pay a fee for geographical, national or other basis of unique franchising. That could be provided by the way of an NFT (terms that cannot be changed in future) and automated distribution (multisig crypto wallet that auto-distributes net income to agreed “stakeholder” wallets that has an internal and external audit element, a “trust” for governance of the start up with eventual income distribution per profit (still to be determined as a DAC, DAO, crypto currency, or whatever new age “metaverse” entity that has a roadmap to compliance with future legislation and authorities conformance no matter how many legislative “approvers” each nation decides to apply to metaverse organisations.

Life is good, full of surprises - and that is achieved not by following the leader but dreaming as a creator. Does anyone really care if they make $1 or $10M or $100M if the new startup entry timing is good? What really drives entrepreneurs is the thrill of the game, and having to win. When you compare yourself with your ideal plan standards, that is truly a motivating (and maybe life changing) benefit. I love hard work. The more I work, the luckier I get (quote from somebody) The Harder I Practice, the Luckier I Get – Quote Investigator

And by the way I reached out on this forum a few months ago to make that offer to anyone who was willing to ask more and exhibit an interest - not one response to that post. And that tells you something about the reason that 95% of Forex investors fail. It’s the same ratio for other UK businesses. This statistic is over a decade old, but is based on fact.

For each new start up company that registers in the UK, one in five (20%) will still be in business within the first five years. Of those that manage to survive for 5 years only one in 5 are still in business. So survivors after 5 years are 20% of 20% which is 4$ still trading, 96% liquidated, the vast majority due to trading losses. When we traded (physical goods and services in the Middle East area) we lost 80% of our maximum commit capital, but took on just two service contracts that made us profitable. We tracked our BSR rate (bid success ratio) = number of jobs won divided by number of jobs bid, and our GPR (gross profit ratio) = value of jobs sold divided by value of jobs bid. In summary, our metadata that provided an indication of trend - because there was a delay in deciding who won the bid of between 60 and 90 days, the smooted average on a monthly basis of this metadata allowed me to know what our gross income was likely to be six months down the line, and I was able to predict a mid term market shrinkage with six months lead time. By accepting resignation of 2 staff, and closing the contracts with notice on four other (income sharing contractor resource engineers that were underperforming) break/fix repair engineers, our fixed costs were reduced and we weathered the storm for 2 years until our GPR trend slowly started to increase and we knew we could not fulfil all orders to stay within the SLAs of the general terms of contract. I instructed our bid team to increase the gross margin on very small jobs to align more with the internal bid cost and reduced the gross margin on large jobs. When the customer needed to increase parts quantities in field stores, our gross profit went to 200% of business plan. The same year we move legal jurisdiction from Cyprus to Dubai free zone, and saved the move costs on mitigated tax payable in both Syria and the jurisdiction of the trading company.
Not much of this I copied from anyone else. I just applied a basic principle “at the end of the job you have to have more cash than when you started” I had learned this from a 21 year old roofer millionaire on a management course. Choose your company well, and surround yourself with achievers. It can’t hurt.

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Sounds so simple and common sensical but once you’re out there doing things, it can be easy to get lost in “necessary debt” / leverage etc.

Also wow, good for you personally managing such a young individual! Are you finding this person’s characteristics different from young people from previous generations you’ve worked with?

No, it reminds me of when we used to ask people if they wanted their lawns mowed, or windows cleaned, or car windows cleaned with a real leather cloth. To most people he appears shy, almost arrogant. To me, he gets after what he wants with a vengeance. That attitude will not make him wealthy, but it is a good start. What really motivates him is that i “get it”. His mother and father love him, and want him to be the best in everything he does, but a lot of what he studies at school he finds a waste of time. I will help him along with his fascination of NFTs and DEXs as long as his parents agree. He is, after all, not of a legal age to make financial decisions. But his father has now been self employed for a year now (as a builder capable of managing a team of 10 onsite), so I will be delighted if he follows in his father’s footsteps. Not as a builder, but as a gig economy entrepreneur. They are a Romanian family whose wife works full time at a school for special needs. Their younger son is autistic, the older one has no disabilities. Our foreign immigrants have a difficult time settling - learning UK culture and often being exposed to extreme racial or cultural prejudice that no law can eradicate. They are strugglers, and have now started to reap the rewards they deserve having worked so hard. Happy to be there to help them. He reminds me of me! In my time I had two mentors at my mother’s Baptist church. A hairdresser and an industrial chemist. They were in their early twenties, and helped so many 12 to 15 year olds to keep out of trouble. This is me paying back for my own luck and opportunity in childhood :100:

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You are a blessing to your community and he is lucky to have you! I just hope he sticks around and doesn’t lose motivation or get derailed! I’ve seen this happen to other teenagers - the initial excitement of something new wears off and when that happens they look around for another new thing and so on and so forth.

A true pay it forward experience. Love to see it!

Thank you for your kind words. My wife often asks me why I spend time with people who “don’t deserve it”. By the way, she does exactly the same and that is why I love her. We were cut from the same cloth.

So here is the difference. When you decide to do something charitable, it has to come with no expectation of anything in return (although strangely, the more time or money you spend on charity, the more you get back in terms of satisfaction in life).

In this respect, I have trained hundreds of engineers or technicians at work, most of whom were so selfish they would not give me the time of day a year or so later. They got what they thought they “deserved”, and it is neither within my gift, nor do I seek to try to influence how they may pay that back. Just ONE success is more than enough and I know I have experienced many more than one who pay it back to others.

It is outside of my sphere of influence, so I wish them well on their way to their future selfishness.

On the other hand, it is enough for me just to see the fire in another person’s eyes when they realize they are capable of far more than their own perceptions, or what naysayers may have said to them in the past. And that doesn’t respect age, gender, race or religion. I have just as much fun mentoring a 52 year old as I have teaching a 14 year old. Both motivate me and we all have stuff to learn regardless of age.

Seek to help another person less fortunate than yourself, and you will experience the feeling of why God put us on this earth. Sorry - got a bit carried away there. Back to normality.

Yup. I think about this even in simple terms. When you hold the door open the person walking in walks in like you were put on earth to open doors for them lol. I shouldn’t expect a thank you, I opened the door for them on my own accord! Expectation kills gratitude and really we should just be doing things because we want to and unless it’s a contract or transaction, we shouldn’t be expecting anything in return.