Correct me if I am wrong but I think that either piparush or I is missing something about COT data. If commercials have decreased there longs would that not mean price should go up. It was my understanding that commercials are on the wrong side of the market till the reversal. Large specs are on the right side of the market till the reversal. I might be missing something here not sure. I am still working on figureing out the whole COT concept.
Commercials are announcing a top/bottom when we have extreme positioning, but the large speculators (hedge funds & other financial institutions) are riding the trend. Commercials are more interested in hedging their exposure risk to a certain currency than speculating, so they accumulate longs during downtrends/shorts during uptrends until the top/bottom is reached and they start to distribute.
When weāve reached a bottom, commercials wants to get out of their shorts, which means they buy to close their position. Large specs are buying from the comms as they want to ride the trend engineered after the bottom. Vice-versa for the āmarket topā scenario.
ā¦but if Commercials distribute their longs quickly and the price remains in range(fails to go up) then this is a bearish signal for me.Why they distribute their longs so quickly?Because they think the price will go lower and they`ll take other longs at a better price.
Thanks Javapro this clears things up. I sincerely apologize to everyone for giving bad advise.
[QUOTE=PipARush Petru;368053]My example how I use SMT:
This has turned my bias form bullish to bearish.Commercials decreased drastically their longs but price has remained in range.They have the information.They know the euro will drop.
Weekly chart
Sorry to ask but where did you get this info from ?
thanks
Technically it is not a āHigher/High and Lower Highā break in collation. However, I do believe it still shows a break in collation and to me is an earlier signal that a major move is coming. I guess it just depends on how you define divergence. To me it is any major break in collation. My perception is it doesnāt have to be a perfect setup where everything lines up. It just has to have enough confluences suggesting a high probability trade setup. Like any good chess player, the subtle moves are more important than the more obvious ones.
Anyways, I can agree to disagree. GLGT.
Generally, I would agree with both you and SanJ, but you have to admit there was a big difference in the highs from the example I gave. I remember ICT touching on the finer points of divergence in one of the market reviews how it is not always picture perfect. So I try not to limit myself to a really strict set of rules where it has to look exactly a certain way.
Cheersā¦
Larry Williams āTrade Stocks And Commodities With The Insiders - Secrets Of The Cot Reportā
Larry Williams - The Future Millionaireās Trading Course part 1-4.
Watch Larry Williams - The Future Millionaireās Trading Course part2,min 23 and adapt it for a downtrend.
PipARush Petru sorry i didnt specify sorry the charts and the reports ā¦ where you get them from ā¦ cause i tryed to get them but the timing charts are not working :Sā¦
thanks in advance.
Thanks very much PipARush Petru
i also hope timingcharts come soon online again
anyways thanks helped a lot .
If that was a question the answer is: ānot necessarily!ā
Hey folksā¦ just a note to inform you all there will be a livestream Monday 8pm New York.
Next youtube video Monday morningā¦ then I am offline for holiday.
GLGT :57:
thatās 1 am tuesday GMT right 
ok iāll be here this one i need to watchā¦
Newby question: How do we subscribe to attent the online session?
Martin
This week im only going to trade one pair, the fiber. Tossed a coin to decide between the fiber and cable. Iāve been trading fiber, cable, aussie and kiwi. I want to try and get more in tune with price by only trading one pair, just as an experiment for now but who knowsā¦ Itāll be a good lesson in discipline too. I like Bobmanincās style of only shorting the aussie, iād like to try only buying or selling but thisāll do for now.
It does help dont forget to still look for smt on the cable. This will also cut down on over tradeing more than you can understand if you have the discipline for it. Me being part time I may get from 1-4 trades a month but the average piphaul for the month is usually pretty good. On average on the Aussie I will bring in about 50 pips a month. Thats not a big number of pips but once you learn the reasoning behind why I did this (1: discipline big time 2: after learning 1 you will have the patience to wait for exactly what you are looking for and not chase it) now you will know how to cut risk to a minimum and maximize your reward on those 50 pips a month. Thats where it counts but it dont come easy and not for the faint at heart. Hope it works out for you.
Exactly my point. I dont trade the cable and fiber but from what I see commercials made an extreme long on about 6/13/12 give or take (i use the excel spreadsheet posted here a couple weeks ago for charting) and have been decreasing long positioning since then. This tells me price may be looking to go up soon. According to the low made on both the cable and the fibers daily charts on 6/1/12 and then the low made on 6/28/12 that failed to take out the previous low (6/1/12) this is telling me the bottom they were looking for was made. Now according to the 4hr on both the cable and fiber which have both made a rally. I cant see any real intermediate term swing. I mean I can see price makeing the intermediate term low swing now and go down this week but if it were me honestly this is all telling not telling me to short. Since I dont go long its telling me to sit and wait. I am not telling any one to take my advise I am more trying to see where short bias is coming from the COT report. Again I am just trying to really grasp this aspect. I have a general idea but needs fine tuning. This has always been the best place to come for this.
Thanks man, im looking forward to the challenge. Iāve spent the last few months trying to curb my over trading and im getting there. I only took ten trades last month down from 20 or 30 sometimes. 6 wins 2 losses and 2 breakevens. Less is definitely more. I was doing ok trading four pairs but i feel like im only getting an overview on each pair and iād rather know one pair inside out.
I just realized some key numbers on my excel sheet are missing. From march - may is missing and that might be what I am not seeing here I am not sure how to update past data on the spreadsheet, just current data. Also correct me if I am wrong but according to my data the commercials on the fiber were net long on the COT on 6/13/12. Where as the commercials on the cable were net short. Does anyone else see this (remember I am missing a few months of prior data so I am only looking at 6/13/12 to date)? I am testing the way this spreadsheet is calculated for accuracy before I dump my time into something giving me wrong info in the end. I hope not it is one cool setup spreadsheet. Seems to be spot on on my charts though baring the little bit of info I am missing. For instance the fiber made a extreme long positioning on the cot the week of 1/13/12 on my daily chart 1/13/12 was a low for the fiber moving up almost 900 pips. We just now made a higher extreme on the fiber in the cot report and broke the lows made in January on the charts. Then with seasonal timing in the market it all lines up to go long.
I am not sure which excel sheet your talking about. It really depends on how you add data to the worksheets. If you import data you need to create new rows in between where the older data and the new data to make room for the import. The number of rows added needs to be greater than or equal to number of rows imported. Select the first cell where the data is to be imported to. Import data. Then remove any extra rows.
Copy and paste is works similar. Make sure you create enough rows and copy and paste to where the data is to reside.
If you have trouble with this, just attach the spreadsheet here along with the COT data to be imported and I will fix it up for you and re-post the merged data. I have not been tracking COT data myself, but I am very familiar with Microsoft products. The COT reports I do have are separate documents. FYIā¦ when you create new rows in excel formulas will be automatically be adjusted.
I hope that helpsā¦ cheers.