Sir, i will just quote you the John. J Murphy. In his book “Technical Analysis Of The Financial Markets” (if you ever heard of it) he says “market action discounts everything”. "The technician believes that anything that can possibly affect the price - fundamentally, politically, psychologically, or otherwise - is actually reflected in the price of that market. By studying price charts and a host of supporting technical indicators, the chartist in effect lets the market tell him or her which way it is most likely to go."
And if you are here, that means you follow ICT TECHNICAL TRADING. I haven’t see any fundamentals used by him. Only that he doesnt trade NFP.
Having so many confluence at one level is what ICT taught me to do. And taught me to take trades. If you are waiting for everything fundamentals, market flow and everything else to line up you will wait for too long and won’t take any trades…
Technical analysis seeks to put the probability in our favor but it ll never be 100%.
You don’t unterstand what Mr. Murphy is trying to say. The fundementals are of course reflected in the current and expected price, but the current and expected price is statisticly calculated from every possible outcome.
It doesn’t mean that if the euro crashes, nothing will happen with the price, just because this (fundamental possibility) is reflected in the price. The euro would of course crash, but the possibility of this is already calculated in the price and the fall will be smaller than if it wasn’t.
So… if Rajoy says that Spain needs $500 billion in loans tomorrow, the euro [U]would [/U]crash and the market won’t care (that much) about the technicals. You are saying that “if this fails…I am really lost. And my faith will dim”, why would it? Maybe you have an edge against the dumb money, but this doesn’t mean that you’ll earn a single pip.
I’m not talking about if you should take the trade or not or if you should use fundementals or not, I’m talking about your attitude towards the market.
Trading is all about stacking probabilities in our favour. That is the best we can do, have the most amount of probabilities and confluences telling us that price will go in a certain direction. There will never ever be a trade which is a sure thing, the market is free to move price however and whichever way it wants at any time.
If we can’t deal with the fact that [I][B]sometimes we can do everything right and still be wrong[/B][/I], you’ll struggle to be successful in this game…
lets see if oncle ben has some more tweaked, super synthetic numbers to present us today… and they might even turbocharge price in my direction… although I’d still prefer if I could move SL to BE before he opens his mouth… maybe 10 more pips for that to happen;)
I’m not sure if I will scale out a little at that point since my lot size is ridiculously small on my little Live-testrun;)
first it would be cool if it would continue to go in my direction;)
good luck an happy hunting anyways;)
I still disagree. If euro crashes it should give some kind of pre-crash technical signs. Banks have access to the information which none of us does. They know, they should prepare for any crashes there is or even make money out of it.
I think you don’t grasp what Murphy says 
Crashes don’t come out of the blue. Thats why market is often compared to sea. Before cunami comes there is usually a big retracement… I believe you should read the book before telling me what i don’t and do understand…
And concerning my attitude towards the market. Everyone experience a shake in their believe towards the market.
As well, as you talk like a really “know how” do you have [B]any live accounts to share[/B]? I start to become more sceptical of people i meet in forums. If you would share your [B]myfxbook with a good positive % over a period of time, i believe i would shut up rather quickly[/B] If not… you know the market as much as i do. That means newbie level.
No, I don’t have a myfxbook account. If that means that you won’t listen to me, OK, that’s fine.
I don’t know why you’re talking about how the banks prepare for a bank crash and the signals, because that’s not what I was discussing.
However, to make it clear: Fundamentals does matter and even if the cable goes lower this week (which is might do if you take all fundementals into consideration), you’ve still followed your trading plan and that’s good, because then it’s a good trade if you believe in it. You shouldn’t think that 1, 5 or 10 or even 200 trades is enough to lose your faith in your trading plan.
:18:
Happy trading!
BEHOLD!
I just scaled out my first 3.32$ and moved SL to BE of my first ever Livetrade!
time to call the Pagani dealership! hahaha
Like i said, its easy to point and fiddle away advices (criticize), but when it comes to real numbers and real accounts, your actual stand in this world (market), then everything clears up pretty fast. And to actually LISTEN and TAKE your advice into heart and head i need proper proof than pretending you “know”.
A valid point concerning banks prepare for a bank crash. Point taken.
Once again, i will stand by my opinion. YOU CAN’T take everything in (“If you take all fundementals into consideration”).
But as you wrap up everything nicely i will not go into discussion anymore. Good luck in trading.
Just wondering if anyone thinks the EUR/USD Sunday gap will be filled.
1.2150 just below
1.2200 Just above
OTE from Fridays Asia high to yesterdays low at 1.2220
I’m thinking it could pull back to one of these.
Your MyFxBook idea was a great concept/initiative. But you applied it very poorly. You just question any advice different from your own and jam this myfxbook “proof or shut up” attitude in people’s faces.
And by the way, you are forgetting that you ARE “listening and taking advice” from the man himself, Michael, who hasn’t posted any proof of his methods really being profitable.
Make sure its black with a big tail on it. Give it shift at 9000 rpm. I love those cars.
Sunday Open to Tuesday London Open mostly posts the high or low of the week. Here on Tuesday London Open price moved up then formed an OTE so I entered, I hang onto this trade until Friday right? Because we are bearish, please correct me if I’m wrong
haha yes and by the time I’ll trade up my account to be able to easily afford one… their cars will probably be flying;)
but they sure are masterpieces.
Hey Pipjoker, try and be positive. If you look at the Cable and Fibre it’s realy in consolidating the last day and a half. I believe we are in accumlation mode. So if you are looking for big moves they will happen , but not today.
I trade a live account. But can tell you i have been on a rollercoaster this last 4 mnths.
Keep piping brother.
Yes, i might come a little hard. Most of the time that happens. This is only fueled by eager to finally brake through. And i just aggressively knock out any information which is invalid or isn’t proven by naked facts - numbers.
I am sorry for that. I am sorry for proffs1 or any other who i offended. Thats not my main purpose. My main purpose is to separate good advices from random j.o.es who comes here to criticize all and everything.
Lately i shut door to open mind and let only check knowledge in. Am pretty much fed up with random “cool” traders who talk and talk and talk and not do. I just found myself in a position where i can no longer listen to people talking bull****. THIS DOESN’T APPLY TO MY ARGUMENT WITH PROFFS1 OR ANY OF YOU.
I just hate the system in general. For example in my university there are tons of so called professors who act and teach as they know something. But in practice, they are losers. They never did anything related to making money in economics, investment or anything related to money making. The only income is from teaching others unaware people about their false point of view. This is the reason why am mad.
With ICT is another deal. I asked him to share account. He refused. Thats alright. BUT - concept works. My current trade is in +40 profit (you can find reasons for it few pages back). This shows that technical analysis works. His OTE concept is based on 123 pattern. His trading concept are based on very basic market knowledge. Thats why it works, thats why i will continue to follow him. And i’ve participated in rather emotional one of this webinar. Since then, i believe hes honest. Just sometimes i get frustrated and impatient. As he probably felt the same in his early trading carrier he understand. I hope.
As I said, if you didn’t believe me, fine. You can’t trust everyone. You had one opinion, I had one. That’s what forums are for.
closed my trade manually after I saw price dropping back down… was probably premature, but I’m happy to have had a “successful” first live trade and bagged 1.2%… tomorrow is another day
edit: YES it was definitely premature;)
If only you could make this daily… 
Same as you at one point i was sitting on 50pips today which were taken out and made myself 1.5% instead of 3%. And am super happy as am looking only for 3% weekly
Such a nice OTE on the 15 min cable. To bad I missed it. 23 pips in 10 minutes.