Whenever I see price moving to a pocket of stops rapidly just before a news release… why do I have such a strong gut feeling that the market makers expect (or know?) the news to fuel price in the opposite way?
I may be mis-remembering, but I think I’ve heard Mike say that a news release (NFP, GDP, etc.) is just a number and a number can be spun any which way to suit market makers.
If US consumer spending comes in higher than expected, for example, it’s “plausible” for the dollar to rally (“people are buying things, dollar strength”) and tank pretty soon after (“spending figures are bullish, therefore we’re seeing a risk rally”).
Testimony to congress, or BOE minute meetings are a bit of a different story in that there is an expectation, but it’s not as clear cut as with a news release. There will still be stop raids, but I guess it’s a bit more risky than trading news as Big Ben can say anything!
I use forexlive for the rumours - hence took a short cable for 45 pips on the judas up - but out now, wait for things to settle down.
Still watching fiber, great how the divergence on cable is so pronounced in london time by comparison to NY time.
well i must be mad but set pending gu long… time of day, htf ote, div, stop run… everyone is short… stop is beyond the 127 extension on the trinity… Fingers crossed
Why do you say that everyone is short? To the contrary, I’d say most retail traders are heavily long. Also, isn’t it 9h55am in London when you posted - i.e outside the killzone?
Nevermind me looks like its working out for you anyway 
ok I’m just gonna put it out here:
does anyone know what the hell is going on right now? hahaha
seems like a pretty hostile SnD environment?
who ever caught that fiber long… congrats to you from the sidelines;)
Im out for the day - probably the week and the rest of the month… -1% loss today trying to short fiber… Only myself to blame as my criteria wasn’t met as i usually like but i took it anyway. If i had been strict like i had planned to, it would have kept me out of a bad trade… Oh well live and learn eh?
Off to Singapore this Friday for a couple weeks so probably wont be doing much trading…
Oh and just noticed the original thread in the newbie island has been stickied!
ICT, i would certainly mark that as a milestone in your books, your hard work and time spent teaching us is not going unnoticed and unappreciated…
Speak to you all soon!
:57:
[QUOTE=FredFresh;377772]ok I’m just gonna put it out here:
does anyone know what the hell is going on right now? hahaha
seems like a pretty hostile SnD environment?
QUOTE]
Euro buying - watch the eur/gbp for clues, pound caught in the middle, great for stop raids, I’m still bearish fiber but I will wait until nyo to see if anything shows up (i’m bearish euro and see this as pull back, correlation will return in ny session imo.
Congrats ICT I see your old thread got stickied to the newbie forum
ICT, when you wrote that you traded 4-6 times per month (on Twitter) you meant total number of trades, as opposed to number of trades using Turtle Soup pattern? Is that correct? Also, great great video this week, as usual. Thank you.
Hi everyone,
Well I have been on this ride for about a month now and am loving it. I loved it so much I took a job with my company in the office as an adjuster instead of in the field only. I get to do the work I have to do and have the ability to monitor my pretend trading as well as the thread.
I read and watch and then read some more, lovin it!
I have made a trade long in the fiber yesterday based on a confluence of ADR and institutional levels. so far it is a 85 pip gain but not sure if I should push for the 161.8 level. I have moved the second part of the trade to break even, and the first trade got 30 pips. I guess the only thing I have really gained is the 30 and the 85 is still in a state of flux.
I have a similar trade I took on the cable as well. took profit at 30 pips and then adjusted the second to break even and is now on a 32 pip gain.
I would love to have a way to get into a trade other than just two confluences of factors but it is a start and I am loving it! any comments are greatly appreciated!
Daily 3 bar fractal/swing low forming today for a trade tomorrow as long as the market stays up over Tokyo. This is my most favorite pattern so easy to see, no real judgement needed, usually easy to find ote the following day.
The first thread has indeed become “sticky”… that’s pretty cool!
Thank you Babypips for the honor and opportunity to share my work! :57:
On the train tonight I re-watched Power of Three, Judas, and a couple of others. Just looking at today on a 15 minute chart, and today was the classic Judas move out of LO, Bull day, with a nice London short close for dessert… I shorted over night and was stopped out this morning. I was shorting thinking that we must be heading for 1.19. Looks like Thursday is setting up the 5th bar to make TUESDAY (the weekday equivlent of the London Open for formation of the high or low) the ITL. I’m going to check out pivots, s/r etc for a bull move tonight. I really like the idea that ICT only trades 4-6 times per month which is logical to me.
I know I can do this if I would just stop being my own worst enemy. I don’t aspire to be a day trader because it’s not hard work, I aspire because I enjoy it so much that all of the time spent doesn’t seem like work. I know I can do this, get out of my own way, and if I’m going to be lazy / tired on a given night, just DONT TRADE.
Popped over to the island and saw the thread rightfully back on the first page. You continue to inspire.
I know ICT says pick an entry method and stick to it.
But I still have to wonder, how do you determine the market profile and which to use.
Last night would of been a perfect turtle soup sell, as well as an OTE long if you were looking for that on the cable as well as a PERFECT market reversal profile.
This just boggles my mind why A. I didn’t catch this. B. I failed getting in with the trend, twice. and C. I just don’t know anymore.
Granted, my analysis was correct, but I still failed, twice for that matter, I’m purely OTE however, this just made me scratch my head once again.
Also side note i know about that GBP report that happened and I assumed it would be bad and it was but it still rallied then even more.
Just really irks me sometimes too because I see this stuff… in hindsight.
Wow! that’s amazing!!
Bah its like larry always says,
On losing trades you wish you never took as many contracts, on winning you wish you took more 
Had longs at 1.5480 on cable t/p’d at 1.5550
and fiber 1.2127 Shootin a bit high on this one 1.2206 still waitin, but atleast its set to b/e by now
So far 70 pips Awaiting 50 more on fiber for another 80 ish but I think I’m gonna get my ass shot out at around 30 or 50 pips
and money in the bank.
145ish pips in total.
Lost 3% earlier in the week gain 9% tonight.