The Inner Circle Trader's Millionaire Traders Guild

Trading Systems
3962

I’m not knocking what petefader does, he does a great job, and it’s a trading plan that seems to work well for other traders. But I’ll be honest here, I didn’t realise that it was a specific method you were trading, I was under the impression that it was full blown VSA adapted for Forex, although I was looking at the market from a trend continuation point of view while your approach was to look for stopping volume on the 1 hour chart and trade the retrace, using the 5m for entry. But this was the issue I had with the plan, it’s a counter trending strategy, and I just don’t like it, that’s just purely personal taste. Having said that though, there is the stuff I mentioned above that I have taken from VSA and use in my trading, and it proves extremely useful, and I thank you very much for that, I would not have come across it and used it to such good effect if it had not been for your thread.

Ok, I’ll try and illustrate the issue here. As I mentioned above my issue was you keep getting high volume pinbars, that just temporarily reverses the direction, no point going into more detail here, that’s for the VSA thread I think. So from my point of view I was looking at what was potentially stopping volume, but was it this one or will it be the next one, and also when counter trending you don’t get as much out of your trades. Ok, in an accumulation phase you stay in and try and get that bigger trade, but I could never tell if the market was in an accumulation phase or distribution using VSA, and more often than not you could clearly see Accumulation, only all of sudden it would change to signs of distribution and back again and again.

It may be me just not getting it, but this posts illustrates exactly the kind of thing I mean. http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/41475-supply-demand-vsa-wyckoff-petefader-311.html#post384429

But combining high volume with OTE is a killer entry, which would be a high volume pinbar, followed shortly by another high volume pinbar at OTE on the smaller timeframes, I wouldn’t be surprised if you could make a profit just by trading those entries.

So if any of you VSA’ers are struggling, and I don’t mean you’ve traded it for a week and it’s hard, I mean after months, and don’t dismiss VSA it’s really well worth learning, but have a good look at this thread and ICT’s videos, it’s stuff that mostly goes hand in hand, I think you’ll find that you get an improved road map for your VSA strategy, and also easier to ‘get’, which makes for lower stress trading.

For instance, you might be a VSA trader, and not heard of the Judas Swing, it may well look like a trend reversal on VSA analysis, but it’s a market manoeuvre you need to filter out, or utilise the knowledge for exits on short scalps maybe. I will have to look into if VSA could be used to identify whether a swing is a genuine swing or a Judas swing.

So there you have it, I hope I’ve been constructive enough, and these are purely my vies and opinions, I’m not saying anything is wrong or right.

Mmmmmm… babypips on a Saturday :frowning: , but it’s just one of those days, and I’m feeling a bit on the rough side today, so it was going to be quite uneventful at best!

Ever Learning, Knowledge is Power.

3963

Overall, I was very happy that I was seeing all of the major moves in the Cable unfold pretty close to my expectations, and all from my ICT education. A few months ago I would have been chasing the moves and guessing how things were going to go. Gambling. That said, there are 2 things that I need to work on:

1.) Overcoming the fear of being wrong and trusting the system. As I said above, I saw the moves unfold, but that doesn’t mean that I was in all of them. I’m learning that the OTE isn’t always going to be perfect and to trust the Key S/R levels. To me, that was the key to the week in the Cable. 3 times it came all the way back to the support before running up. In all honesty I got scared that it wouldn’t hold, so I either got out of the trade too soon or I didn’t take it at all. But, the pain of losing out on those moves is drilling it into my head to TRUST THE SYSTEM. So, even though I didn’t make the money that I could have, my education was invaluable this week.

2.) Because I’m in Los Angeles and I can’t trade full time, I need to figure out a schedule that works for me. I was sleeping while some of the important events were unfolding this week. In 2 weeks I start editing/producing a new show called Dish Nation (show plug), so I’ll have to be at work at 5am PST. So, I’m thinking I can wake up a little before that and trade just before NY Open.

So, below is the trade I took on Friday. I was still seeing the Cable as Bullish; the Fiber was making a lower low while the Cable was not; the 1.5580 level was key support; the Fib pulled from the low on Monday to the high on Thursday had 1.5580 right between OTE and 79%, we were in a Pivot buy zone. I did pull out of the trade too soon at 1.5650 because of the 2 reasons I listed above.

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3964

gwconverse, quick very simple tip for you, when the market moves like that, wide spread full bodied candles with tiny wicks, stay in the move until you see different, those type of candles show a very strong move and you will normally get plenty of opportunities to exit at an optimum price.

3965

Homework (well, kind off)

I wont go into very deep analysis (as PipHanger), since not been watching the markets closely recently, but your videos pretty much cover the whole of the week’s price action (especially on Cable), sir. :slight_smile:

The 1.5580 level on Cable (mid level in the large consolidation range, as outlined in all recent analysis) was in the centre of the whole action. It gave so many profitable bounces (at least 3) during the week. Only this, combined with the pivots, OTE’s and weekly Trinity could’ve made a healthy 250-280 pips minimum. Not to mention that on every occasion, 1H oversold oscillator was confirming the trade too (also hinted in your video analysis) :slight_smile:

Overall Michael, your pre-market analysis, turned out to be scary accurate prediction of the whole week’s action well in advance. lol

I thank you so much for your inputs, they are simply priceless.

Hope this will suffice.

3966

Can you say, PIPhanger pitched a perfect game this week?! Amazing PH!

3967

I’m not sure why this week has been so much different then all the other weeks, but I gotta say that every single buy opportunity stuck out like a sore thumb.

I know ICT says to watch for one shot one kill, but when there are 5 guys in a row, you gotta shot to kill.

3968

Jaybyrd, great news that it works, thanks for the heads up that MCAWally’s does the job! MCAWally,bobmaninc, bmwtech,ndazbe,Tansen,PPF, popinjay, and anyone else that weighed in helping us solve our asian question, thanks a lot. As ICT has said many times, although I’m not quoting, it’s a damn good community on this thread. Thanks again. Side note: the wife and kids are coming back after a few weeks away so I can’t even try the indi because I am cleaning, cleaning, cleaning! Thanks again!

3969

This is precisely how a Journal should look folks. Every week you should have a review of your own… I have three ring binders from the 90’s still with these things. It really builds a Professional Perspective and establishes the needed foundation to look for the same things every week… and this is what you should be doing. Namely, looking for the specific thing you trade… pattern wise within the premise of higher timeframe analysis.

Well Done :57:

3970

I don’t have binders, but I do have a folder on my PC full of weekly analysis, basically where OTE’s worked out and where they didn’t and why…I guess you can say OTE’s are my bread and butter…

3971

I have since discovered .pdf is a much better format to save these. You can use Adobe or Cutey Pdf a free application on something similiar. Takes little space and allows zoom for charts which is nice.

3972

I usually analyze the market every night around 9-10 EST, and if I see an opportunity I set up a P&C order for the London Open for the next morning. Lately I’ve identified the direction of the following days trading more often than not, but have had trouble setting up my orders correctly. For the last couple weeks, I’ve been very good about keeping a journal, and noting the daily O, C, H, & L, and noting how the action unfolded.

Tuesday night I noticed (Cable) that the Slow Stochastic was making a lower low, while price was not. I also noticed that drawing a Fib from the weekly low of the day before (Monday) 1.5546 to the weekly high made earlier that day 1.5683, would result in an ote buy range between 1.5574 to 1.56. I like entering long orders when the market is twenty pips or so over a big fig, or short orders around 20 pips below a big fig. As ICT teaches, there is often a Judas move in the opposite direction of the daily move. When I was performing my analysis, price was around 1.5615, so it seemed ideal that price was going to drop in the slot for a grail move. I felt pretty good that this was a solid opportunity, and set up a long at 1.5594, and set ups a stop loss 40 pips lower to give myself some room. I also set up a tp at 1.5650, thinking that if it was a homerun, I would wake up 56 pips richer, and if it was a double, I could reassess and maybe take some profit when I got up at 630. I woke up a little late and the profit had been taken.

Certainly not the perfect trade, and the important thing (like in life) is to ask; what could I have done better - like waking up earlier to manage the trade and taking more pips? Was off on Thursday and took a few pips scalping the London Close.

3973

Remember weeks like this when you are struggling next time!

50% in one week? I sure hope it’s vacation time lol

GJ PH, Never quit :wink:

3974

Hi All,

Been out the loop for a bit, work, family, travel, etc. Can some kind soul point me to the Market Review where ICT went over the Accumulation Distribution and Williams %r indicators?

With anticipated thanks,

Jack

3975

Been out the ICT loop for a minute but glad to be back. I agree w/Ali, there def needs to be more talk about the bond market & commodity prices when determining direction of the dollar. I just got caught up and I don’t see that it was ever talked about more than divergence. ICT recommended a book a ways back, Intermarket Technical Analysis by John Murphy, which highlights the importance of the bond market & commodities market. ICT has also mentioned that intraday changes in the bond market can/will drive changes in the spot fx market. I would love to get some discussion going about these two areas because I think they will help us better identify key reversals in the market and allow us to trade w/the trend ICT style. I think something that can get lost is identifying a trading bias for the week and sticking to it. For example, going into the week looking for only shorts and never deviating from that - it makes trading so much simpler. Bobmaniac has a personal quest to short the Aussie into extinction. He has only been looking for shorts since the inception of his thread because he has identified a period of bearish bias, and what has that gotten him?? An 85% win rate!!! So going back to the bond market & commodities market, I think discussing more about these two will help us identify ITHs & ITLs and help catapult our trading.

3976

Yes, I just realised today, it’s a lazy indicator! It takes weekends off, the issue being while GMT continues, server time does not, so it can’t work out the proper time difference, I might do a workaround for it sometime.

3977

I would like to mention, this was across 4 trades, once per pair per week. To re-emphaise, this is using the daily timeframe for the signal, with occasional cross-referencing of the 4 hour for fine tuning exits. Moving forward, 2 anticipated trades, one per pair for the week.

3978

Hi sx1541…maybe you could kick off the discussion for us? What did you get out of John Murphy’s book? How can you see the bond market fitting in to the Intermarket picture over these last few months? (What correlations do you see using the tools that ICT has already given us?) It can certainly help with trend and bias, but also highlights trades against the trend - the Cable short last Thursday being one example.

BTW, happy belated birthday, Michael! I have been stopping by from time to time, but have been pretty busy since moving to Canada at the start of July.

Best regards

3979

I saw your reply via email on my iPhone (I’m still subscribed to this thread and creeping every now and then) and couldn’t help but reply! Where’d you run off to with your millions Ali?? Missed you buddy, but it’s good to see you’re finally on this side of the Ocean. :slight_smile: Anyways, sorry to steal away from the thread.

Clark

3980

So this is the legendary ali you spoke of.

3981

Anyone thinking the Cable and Fibre are looking a bit weak going into the NYO KZ. At this moment there is SMT Divergence across today/friday’s high and the USDX is showing signs of a bullish ICT Stinger…? Fibre looks overbought across all timeframes and I make an average ADR limit around the 1.235 mark.

Hope you had a great day on your birthday Michael.

edit: Some of the concerns I do have is the fact that the Fibre has just put out what looks to be a 3 day fractal bottom and it seems to be in the area of a rising wedge support on the 4hr…