Maybe a search and destroy tonight? We shall see…
thats what im thinking mickpips. cant decide which way but im not seeing any good buy signals so im sitting it out again tonight. hopefully tomorrow i can catch a big move :D. my patience is getting good lol i was a little anxious to trade but i realized it and took a step back. cant wait for pip season beginning in sept. good luck guys.
Went through the exact same emotions… couldnt find anything that fits what im looking for there was a reflection pattern on the eur/usd but it didnt line up with any significant support. Happy with my patience going to stick around for NYO see what happens although it was a mid fig of 1.2450 wasnt enough confluences for me.
Sit tight I say our big signal for a bullish move will come Iyajenkei… PATIENCE (as much as its killing me) lol
Hi Folks,
Aussie has been consolidating around OTE(4H Chart)for the better part of the day. Seems like a big move is setting up. I think the FOMC will trigger huge trend-setting moves on the Majors today.
I am bullish Fibre with a hope of hitting the 200% of the most recent major Swing H-L. See below Screenshot.
Massive amount of reports coming out tomorrow should be a good day for good price movement to get this slow week moving along nicely.
was flat during LO… just came back to the screens and saw the cable…
grail on 15 min ( OTE and type 2 div), SMT div,usdx div, NYO, ADR not fulfilled, 80 level…
- entered long at 1.5790, SL30: 1.5760, 1% risk-
I started to work on my specific issue (being affraid of taking the risk even if the signals are looking good…)
So this week I started to force myself to take every trade that fulfills my requirements (according to my plan) even if my balls are shaking;) - I do know this is against the One Shot One Kill principle… but I have to get over my fear of losing before going back to one shot one kill…
If I win or lose my trades is not really my highest priority this week…
Someone posted a very helpful post for me a little while back, saying that I need to regard trading like being a fruit vendor… A fruit vendor has to buy his stock of fruits in the morning, knowing very well that most likely some of the fruit will rott, or not be sold… which will turn into a lost investment… BUT he needs do buy fruits in order to sell… the important is that he makes a profit at the end of the day/week/month/year…
thanks again for writing this to me! I think It is really helping me getting the right mindset about (calculated) risk taking… Something I better learn now during my humble beginning in live trading (tiny account) before moving up to my better funded account…
hope to overcome this mental obstacle before hurting my account too much, HAHAHA… then I’ll get back into the 1 shot one kill mentality;)
By the way… looks like I accidentally picked (almost) the bottom during my Monday’s NYO trade… feel a bit silly though, to have closed it at monday’s 1500 gmt at 30 pips;) I believe that I was too convinced about Tuesday making the weekly low… I’ll never stop learning!
cheers and happy hunting
Anyone familiar with FXCM’s Speculative Sentiment Index?
It confirms a bullish bias for the short term as most traders are short. Keeping my fingers crossed…
[B]SSI Details:[/B]
[B]EURUSD[/B] - The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at -1.80 as nearly 64% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -1.94 as 66% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 6.4% higher than yesterday and 23.4% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.4% lower than yesterday and 54.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 1.2% stronger than yesterday and 13.5% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more EURUSD gains.
[B]GBPUSD[/B] - The ratio of long to short positions in the GBPUSD stands at -2.27 as nearly 69% of traders are short. Yesterday, the ratio was at -2.44 as 71% of open positions were short. In detail, long positions are 9.1% higher than yesterday and 19.1% weaker since last week. Short positions are 1.5% higher than yesterday and 28.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 3.7% stronger than yesterday and 21.7% above its monthly average. The SSI is a contrarian indicator and signals more GBPUSD gains.
Let’s just stick to the teachings of ICT here.
Be a lil careful bro, to me the cable and fiber are very overstretched and im anticipating a down day as i think they are overdue retracement… Plus the USDx is in a wider OTE:
Good luck ! :57:
Hi Homeworld,
This is a good stuff. It gives you additional support while entering trades. At least for me. The only problem is that you must have a live account with FXCM in order to get SSI data. And only once a week I get that info from FXCM letter for which I am signed in for free.
GLGT! 
haha its very well possible that this will be a loss… but only financially;)
like I wrote… winning or losing is not really my goal this week… but I need to get over my fear of losing before I can grow as a trader…
Amount at risk: 8.15$ - I sure paid alot more for lessons before;)
But If I was looking for one shot one kill, I would have stayed flat I guess…
I know this all might sound weird to you or others…
But I am a strange fellow… and I need to teach myself through strange processes HAHAHA
The problem with that data is it represents a minute part of the retail market, where the retail market represents a very tiny portion of the daily volume… so use with caution.
Yep. But as I said this is just an additional confirmation to the setup formed on ICT style!
Completely sick day… no clear bias either way 
you could short/long and make money. Still need to get used to those.
At what point is an OTE setup invalidated? I believe in the webinar Michael said if price goes beyond the 90% level it invalidates it. What if price comes close to the 62% level but does not cross into OTE?
What if there are other confluences?
I watched the webinar on Monday (had viewing problems on Sunday) hence missed Mondays OTE where price went to 90% - And yes, got stopped on short entries on Tuesday looking for the Judas swing.
Sorry if the answers to these questions are obvious…
On the fiber, if you pull the fib from the high on 6-29 down to the low on 7-24 you get OTE which lines up with the 1.2500. If it hits, I’m probably gonna short it.
Days like today make me grateful for moving away from the intraday stuff, think the best position today would just be sidelines - so far anyway…
For me, an OTE is only really void for me when it starts to cross the 100 fib line where u drew the swing from… Michael uses the 90 level as a last level filter to see if the OTE is valid. He says if it crosses that point, its likely to go past the 100 level and more than likely to take the stop, so from what i remember he collapses some or all of his trade to protect taking a full x% loss. Its another means of preservation of capital…
But yeah i think for me if it crosses that 100 mark, i more or less take it as invalid.
OTE’s work best when inside the OTE area you have a HTF support or resistance level…
:57:
I need help. I am having a hard time understanding how to determine directional bias. I understand what a swing point is, but am not quite sure at what point the bias changes.
Would I be correct in saying that the current bias for the EURUSD daily, weekly and monthly are all bearish until the previous swing high is broken?
Would the GBPUSD daily be bullish since the most recent high was broken or would it be bearish by using the larger swing? What about the weekly or monthly?
I am probably just overthinking this and making it more complicated than it needs to be. Can someone please explain or point me to a video that will help.
Jonah, i think before thinking about directional bias, you should first decide and stick with a preferred time frame you want to trade. Because depending on the time frame your looking at, the bias could be very different. A weekly or monthly bullish bias on a pair, doesnt mean that there wont be a day where you could make a bag full of pips going short.
ICT’s most recent webinar - Inside the range (not sure if you’ve watched it - definitely worth a watch if you havent), is a great webinar at talking about keeping in mind the higher time frame bias - mainly the monthly down to the daily. From these time frames analyze the market structure, market flow, determine recent swing points and where you think price is trying to reach.
Once you know the time frame you are comfortable in trading, look at the things mentioned above on that time frame and higher for clues on determining a good bias…
Taken first profit?
Looks like my smart idea was wrong as we currently stand - glad i had no money riding on it 
lol
Defo looks like there was more pips to be made going long than short atm…