For Crude Oil, (I know this is babyPIPS and not babyTICKS but the principles are truly universal), the CRB index is looking like it made highs and Crude did not follow. Is it safe to say, with my amateur skills, that we can expect lower Crude prices??? $CRB,$WTIC
I see the 5y, 10y and 30y making higher lows, while the 2y is basically flat. A crack in correlation on the lows is a bullish signal, a crack on the highs viceversa is bearish. So in this case we should rather expect the yield to rise, which translates in a stronger dollar and weaker fiber and cable. Weāll see about that!
I just saw your tweet, and I have to say I was anticipating something similar yet opposite of what you are looking for. Hereās what Iām looking at
Bullish confluences:
Stinger set-up on 1H
Bullish SMT divergence on the 1h cable/fiber
Pivot buy zone
TT ābuyā zone (bottom of no manās land)
OTE using swing low on the 30th, right at longterm S/R at 1.2530
USDX OTE from recent swing high, moved right up to longterm S/R at 81.50
Daily market flow up
30y treasury yield failed to make a lower low while 2y, 5y, 10y all did
Bearish Confluences:
DJI,SP,and NQ bearish divergence (NQ made higher highs while the other two failed)
4h market flow down
Now, I guess you were still anticipating a bounce around 1.2530 as well, but seem to be looking for that bounce to set up an OTE for an overall bearish day. Why would you expect that versus a bullish day? I thought when we saw a stinger form at a significant support level, we could expect to release some lighting to the upsideā¦is this a āfake stinger?ā We did have a swing high formed on the daily, so I guess based on the power of 3 vid, I should be shorting after thatā¦but does that override everything I mentioned regarding bullish bias? Would love your thoughts on my analysis. Thanks.
To add to your Bullish confluences, reflection pattern is in place (at around 1.2530 level) using the 9/03 - 9/04 swing.
We also had an āoutside dayā with down close yesterday which, from the High Prob. Price Patterns vid, is indicative of a possible Bullish day to follow (although Monday did give an abnormally small range due to the holiday).
To add to your Bearish confluences - albeit on a macro level - seasonal tendencies does seem to post a short term high around this time only to setup long opportunities towards the middle-end of this month.
See how much homework youāve done for entering the trade, and you say you were pretty cool about it because of all the prep work, have you done the same for your exits?
Thatās what I have down, along with the daily pivot buy zone presenting the first part of the story by moving price up initially ā¦ an OTE to get short? but then Iām only scalping before structure breaks down on the Daily.
Reckon the USD at 81.65 and 81.80 are going to be key, (if it gets there obviously).
Best way to reduce your stress is to reduce your risk. If your normal lot is 100k, reduce it to 50K or 30K. Reduce it to the amount that you feel just above your comfort zone. If you place it too low, you may get totally detached and not manage your trade well ( I had done that).
Build confidence with your setups. After, slowly increase your risk step by step
Lol, what an awful LO today! Looks like an up day (buy zone), price crashes downwards and rapes everyoneās stops (outside of LO killzone mind you!), then it casually returns back upwards again - AH, thatās just how it goes!
Well no, not quite, EUR, Iām long at the OTE sweet spot, Iām trading off the 1 hr chart, with S1 confluence with 20 level, all my stochs look great, but Iām also looking at 1.2500, BIG level with S2 confluence at 90% retrace.
So on to execution, I go long at 1.2525ish, get stopped out, but Iām ready to re-enter, not an advisable thing to do, but itās what I planned, I figure out if lose I lose less if I execute my trade this way, itās close actually, but I tend to do that anyway, whether itās good or bad practice, probably on the bad side but thatās another story.
I take profit at 50 level, I figure since it bounced exactly off the 500 level it is most likely to get to the 50 at least, so now Iām in profit, now I shall move my stop to a swing low on the 5m/15m chart, see how it pans out, then leave my TP at 1.26080, and trail my stops at swing lows.
Lol good trade bro, I shouldāve considered re-entering when I was stopped outā¦ I think once it went against me I just lost confidence in the upwards move. Yet look at it now, sitting high and pretty.
Ahh, now this is what gave me that extra bit of confidence!
The blue line is EURUSD, the black is USDX, the red is GBPUSD, the overlay indicators, Iāve been observing it for a couple of weeks, and Iām taking as the blue line wants to cross the black line, and the red line wants to get to it.
Sounds a bit dot to dot, I swear itās quite amazing so far, long term who knows, but Iāve looked at it at the 5, 15 and 1 hour chart.
