Luckily the storm barely missed me so all is well down here in Sunny Florida. It is a bit chilly this morning but nothing compared to the rest of you all. So far 33 Dead millions without power. Sure its not a pretty picture up toward ICT.
I have been following the news too. It looks pretty bad from what i have seen. Hope everyone over the pond have taken precautions and are safe and well. My thoughts are with all.
Donāt know what part of Maryland ICT is in, but Iām in Northwest Baltimore County and it wasnāt as bad as I thought it would be. Amazingly didnāt lose power but I did lose internet service in the middle of a trade during London Open. I think New Jersey and New York were really hit hard.
No not sure where in Maryland he is in. For some reason I thought he lived in Connecticut but I am wrong he is in Maryland somewhere. I bet it did rock NJ and NY really hard they are not used to storms like this. It least not like us in Florida but given the sheer size of this storm its going to be hard no matter where it hit.
Although not directly related to the Fibre or Cable but taking a note of Open Interest in ICTās latest video in the Development series. Crude Oil (barchart(dot)com - CLZ12 contract) just witnessed a massive drop in OI with the commercials decreasing net shorts and all the while price happens to sit in an āOTEā zone + S&R @ 85. Just thought it might be interesting to see how price reacts from here and how long it takes to feed in.
Michael, I saw divergence on the yield triads and the yields are falling together, the seasonal chart I thought was bearish for this time of year but prices just keep on heading up. Have I got my analysis totally out of whack, am I missing a vital piece of the puzzle or what? HEEELLLLP PLEEEEAAASSSSE???
Iāll take a shot at helping but take everything as my opinion and not what is actually happening or correct.
When we look at the Open Interest, COT reports, Yieldās 2yr 5yr and 10yr. They give us a long term bias. That means that what they show us is all in regards to the daily chart price structure.
If you look on the Daily EURUSD for example you will see how price went shooting up then on the 14th of sept stopped. This alone is not enough to say āOh epic down trend is coming up!ā However shortly after this point on the COT and Open interest charts we see a massive closing of positions from the large traders shortly after this point. This suggests that buying pressure is basically dead at this point so sells become an option for the longer term.
On the COT we do not really see many positions being added at all during the past few weeks! USDX Also shows the same closing of positions on mass too on the same days. This is reason to suggest that we could see a change of the daily trend. With that amount of positions closing seeing higher highs is unlikely.
Combine this with what you see happening with structure, COT and OI on Stock Indexes and Commodities and you will be able to make up your mind where you see price heading.
After you have looked at all of those different charts and you think its time for a change of direction on the long term, or a continuation of trend or whatever else then you can start looking on your chart for places where you can enter in that direction.
So for the sake of argument lets say you are anticipating the EURUSD to head down over the next 60-100 days. This does not mean you are looking for sells every single day. It means your looking for price structure to hold in a bearish way on the daily chart. So as an example you would look for price to retrace to OTE areas with other resistances after it has moved downwards considerably on the daily ranges.
So look at the Daily chart now on EURUSD. You will see that price had entered the OTE area of the sep 14 move down. Price then moved downwards again. If your bias for the next few months is sell it is in this area where you will be looking for the patterns of three indicating a change of direction. Then you will want to head down into your intraday type charts looking for you typical entries that you always look for looking to go short.
Its still possible to buy while the long term bias is short. We just need to be aware that price breaking upwards out of the daily highs is unlikely. So if you were seeing a nice USDX divergence for a buy today at a nice support you could buy on a 5m OTE just not plan on holding it for a very long time like 30-40-100 days.
TLDR:
Price will go up and down during a long term trend. Just because a high timeframe has a bias indicating a selling environment does not mean that every day or week will be down.
Fibo!(not my work)
I had taken Mon Tues and Wed off this week, partially to trade, and as it turns out, Iām not sure when I will be able to get back into my office as it is in lower Manhattan and flooded. Am going to try to use this as a time to get in to the London open as well as work from home for the next couple of weeks. Sadly I wound up with the flu this past week and had one trade for a win but for only 33 pips. I hope everyone (families, etc) are safe after this horrible event.
Thatās a really interesting picture. Guess Iāll go short with a stop-loss near Montreal, and a take-profit in Central Florida.
Looks like you got stopped out, she headed north, not southā¦:54:
Hi guyzā¦
im a new trader and i started trading using the divergence between stochastic and the currency curve. Im 18 years old, and people tell me im not mature enough for trading 
.
So far ive earned 20% profit. P.S. This is a demo account.
I would like to know if there is any way to make the trades more reliableā¦
Like if i fused the indicators with an other indicators, or used the same indicator on something else.
Sory for all the painā¦
Thanx
SML555
Thanks very much Woolo I appreciate your helpā¦
Hmmm - I got burnt a little bit this week because I was discovering an entry technique using stochs and price divergence - I think this might be like I mentioned a great entry technique - nothing more.
So I think if you can have a broader picture - and maybe nail down certain times of the day when it seems to work vs. maybe certain times it doesnāt.
Anyways 20% profit - sounds good ā - but really means nothing as stated ā is that 20% in 1 day 1 week 1 month ? all carry a bit of subjectivity -
as far as making more reliable - we are on the same page - however I still donāt know much - do you trade on daily or 1hr or what time frame - have you earned 20% through luck or do you have a specific plan you are following?
Also - not to be rude - but this thread is about ICT teachings and setups - and so if your studying ICT stuff - lets continue - if youāre not really into ICT stuff - lets take this conversation out of his thread and put in a new thread ?
Actually mateā¦
This was in Michealās 16th videoā¦
how to use indicators like a proā¦
so, actually its related to thatā¦
and also i use the 1hr and 4hr graphā¦
sory i forgot to mention thatā¦
i hav been analysing this system for the past 6 monthsā¦
and ive only seen it go wrong onceā¦
im also gonna try the daily chartā¦
the hard part is to see it in real timeā¦
it gets more complicatedā¦
Trading stoch or SMT divergence alone will result in equity disaster.
I do trade using divergence but only when they appear at key support and resistance levelās and also taking the daily and H4 momentum into consideration.
SMT divergence at key levelās is really a dynamite approach.
Check this post by ICT.
super - still a bit confused on what youāre looking for - initially stated something about more reliable - then in this post only missed once in 6 months - -that sounds pretty reliable?
Just me being confused - not trying to pick you apart at all.
If you reread his post I dont think he has traded it.
He states he has been analyzing for 6 months and seeing it in real time is more complicated. This tells me he is looking on the left side of the charts where everything is way more clear than anticipating on it the right side of the chart with actual money.
Wooloo, in your response you said āHowever shortly after this point on the COT and Open interest charts we see a massive closing of positions from the large traders shortly after this point.ā Could you possibly explain this with a visual example so I can grasp this a little more firmly? Thanks if your able to.
whose pain mate? afraid i donāt understandā¦