It’s stalling because there is a bank holiday in the US I think
Also, isn’t MS bearish for the EU now? We’re heading for the 50% retracement on the daily, which is around the 1.2600 level.
I have a huge support line resting at 1.2630-1.2635, my aim is for that region. If not this week, certainly next week (but don’t take my word for it )
SO I’m looking for the HIGH of the week between tuesday and wednesday at 1.2800-1.2840 region and than turn South.
Which would actually make a nice MMS program
I would expect price to push up here untill tuesday but I see a messy week ahead. The EUR is going to be sell t notes on thuesday which should be bearish I would think. There is also a 5 billion Euro T note fixing to expire on friday. I got this info off of Chris Lori’s bank report this morning
A possible buy pattern, but I think t will continue to go lower until the 1.5780-1.5800 region.
If we see a consolidation around that region, I might go for a buy.
At the moment, it looks pretty bearish to me (at least on the daily).
D’OH, didnt realise there was a bank holiday in the US today!
I have the same level noted as well for my downside objectives.
My thinking was, drive down Monday, lure in the punters to get short, fire up it into the OTE level of the current range (around that 1.2760) or should we make it, 1.28/1.2830.
Then back down again to continue our current bearish trend…
It never ceases to amaze me how fast these things can change though!
it seems to me that you are talking about a cable long, and not a long on fibre. and afaik you were supposed to take the stronger pair for a long. fibre made a higher low and cable made a lower low, thus you should be looking for fibre longs. correct me if i’m wrong
In one of ICT’s videos he says that both can be watched for entry points if that happens. In another one he says that he’d rather trade long on cable than fibre.
Before I continue, the one trade that I didn’t take but would also have stopped out would not have executed in a killzone… So the next trade with a 15m OTE would have actually been lower than the big figure trade that I was aiming for. The best thing would have been in London open on a turtle soup into the 1.5880 level. You would have been able to take at least 20 pips, although I aim for 25 and that was also reached, before setting your stop to break even. After that you would have been stopped out at BE though, better than taking a loss…
To the one side of the argument: The pair not making lower lows apear stronger.
To the other side of the argument: The pair making the “judas”, why are the banks taking out those stops, doesn’t that mean it’s going to make a larger move?
I think I’v seen both arguments actually play out, so if both are at support levels then maby we should split the risk and trade both, only thing is for the one to stop out the other one needs to move so much more to just break even on the trade.
Does any one know how to choose the pair to trade on SMT?
Clear divergence between Fiber and Cable and also USDX at the 79% level which also coincides with resistance level. Is this an early sign for the push higher that’s going to take place tomorrow ?
Also fiber is at the support level.
See video PTC 07/15/12 at 48.00 mins for example of SMT in action, or 04/22/12 at 04.20 for smt on daily or again the video titled 0613_12 on the babypipsinnercircletrader livestream channel at 14.40 mins
or again on ptc 11/04/12 at 24.54 for good explanation incl smt on usdx
Great review Michel , as always and thanks for steering in a correct direction;). Also thank you for talking about Market Structure in more detail…
BTW you got me all worried when you said in the last portion of the video something along the line of this officially concluded my forex trading and i was like WHAT? WHY? NO! LOL > GLAD:30: i simply misunderstood. Looking forward to all the stocking fillers
Well, it’s been falling down lately which is precisely the reason i was lookin for a retracement. ICT did mention that he will be looking to sell if there is a retracement…But the SMT Divergence is broken. Have to wait how it act’s before triggering.
1st Things 1st. Do I have the red crosses correctly marked and the blue ones correctly marked, meaning should some of the blue be red or vica verca?
If you look at the major swing and think of swing projection, whouldn’t the 1.58 level be a perfect target for a reversal or a bounce?
If so, should we wait for the bounce and then on the retracement back to that level look for entries to form like the sweet spot on the way down or SMT with the EURUSD?
If it does in fact form a “Blue cross” low here will you look for bounces earlier than the 1.58 level? I can see why you say that you do not want to chase price further down but are we ready to trade the bounce up before the 1.58 level is actually tagged?
Nice choice!!