I haven’t been doing this as long as most on here, im pretty new to the forum + trading…
It’s also been a tough month for me… I’ve had a lot more losers than winners, but my some of my winners have been handsome and i’m not as down as much as i could be…
Saying that… This is a tough game, if you didn’t know that before you get into it, your certainly going to learn a long the way… I’ve had trades the last few weeks that i’ve just wanted to beat myself up on… I have gone against all my rules and done things i said i wouldn’t do. Its been a battle not only with just the analysis, but a lot of the psychology…
I look back on the charts and my trades at the end of the week, and everything looks so easy in hindesight, but at the time and moment it just seems like trying to spot the needle in a haystack… I think one of the biggest problems i’ve had, especially this month is having the wrong bias. Since the end of last week more or less i’ve been bearish both cable and fiber, to me it just seems so overdue a correction… Yet i’d be making a lot more pips if i was bullish… To me personally anyway, my bias is looking to have a big impact on how successful my trading is…
I think the most important thing we can do when trying to learn, is to look back over our losing trades and figure out what we did wrong, and why we did it. I think the reflection can help us all. Also, maybe more importantly… Stick to the sound risk management we’ve been taught: Handling Losses and Inevitable Drawdowns - YouTube
ICT has been an amazing help to my trading till date, the teaching hes shared i dont think i could even put a price on… But theres only so much a teacher can do a long the path, at some time and point the student has to be able to walk alone without support…
I agree with the bold. I did made some weird trades and i will really try not to make any of those mistakes. But it took at best 2-3% of my whole account, the rest is just… As for teaching of ICT, i would really like to see who really made it. I mean went for at least a year and made at least 100% of this. So i could ask those newb questions, or ask him for live sessions. I just beleave we HAVE to HAVE live sessions and discussions. I know i know that it has impact on your own bias and sometimes it will go against you, but you have to discuss so we could become one mind… or similar to that.
Yes the best thing you can do is go back through your trades and find out what you did wrong, but in my case I look at the trades and then compare them to ICT’s previous trades and they look the same, only thing is the spike in price went the opposite way. So if you think they trade was good enough to take, then a lot of times when you go back and review you still see the good trade and not the bad one…
This makes it hard to find out what you are doing wrong, same thing as what I said before, the blind leading the blind…
No worries guys, I got stopped out as well this morning. It happens.
I normally think back to the time when Michael got stopped out while on livestream. It happens to the best of us.
Remember way back when, when Michael asked us to take ONE set up for the week that looked like the ultimate dream set up? I believe most of us need to get back to that. Exercising patience and letting the market come to us. Today was a crappy day to trade, if we as traders didn’t realize or recognize that, it’s our own fault, and we won’t improve until we accept the fact that it was our fault, and not the markets.
…it is so damn easy to trade on the left side of charts! boy oh boy!
did some backtests on Fiber as per the strategy described in the ICT’s Live Session from 16.04.2012
still have to do march and april but:
as you see February has been a ‘‘disaster’’ with ‘‘only’’ 450 raked… ironically Feb 2012 was best in my life trading…
used same methodology today and yesterday with negative results… go figure!
Nobodies blaming the market here. We’re just express our emotions. And like i said, i would LOVE to see ICT doing this. I would love to see HIM making twitter notes like - not trading today. next day - not trading today, sucks. following day - okey we might trade because etc etc etc. So I COULD SEE THE DIFFERENCE!
as I said thats just Fiber buddy, still to go trough cable, 5 months => 4,870 pips in the pocket
tried to be as ‘‘conservative’’ as poss in the tests, but lets reduce it with another 20% just to be on the safe side…
Kubio_trader on skype? I wanna skype with you man as i am looking only for 10% i think your view might help me to improve or at least compare my analysis with yours.
Don’t get discouraged PH! Keep with the Bear set up ICT gave you. And take the 25 pips it gives you then go to break even. Fiber would have paid you today short. But then knocked out your BE. That’s cool you bagged 25 pips on half your position. Maybe even just focus on one pair. Pick either the Fiber or Cable and don’t even consider trading the other. This will take less of your time in analysis and hone in your focus even more.
Make one trade per week MAX. Then love up your family the rest of the time. I think that’s the goal of living the Forex dream is not necessarily making 10 million but having the time to spend with loved ones instead of at the office.
I do find it odd that you guys who are more advanced then me in ICT’s trading system are having such a bad time of it. This month has been my first profitable month ever, & I’m a total greenie at this game! (not bragging just really puzzled)
I’m up 1.8% for Apr. I wonder if the fact I’m only risking .5% max per trade with only one position open at a time is the difference, or have I just had a lucky month? :39:
Anyways amongst all the introspection I want to say a big THANKS to ICT for all the dedication & time for absolutely nothing in return as payment, not many ppl prepared to do that in the world. :35:
Well if you think the Trading Model is so easy then maybe someone can help me out. Below is the rules copied straight from ICT himself. Now I told him to show me a couple of examples and he pointed out April 5th, 10th, 11th, and 13th as all great examples of this trading model. So what am I missing because I only see it on the 5th and 11th some what. Even those I would probably miss. This game most not be for me because I just can’t see the setups. Like I said if I do see a perfect OTE my entry gets triggered and price just keeps blasting towards my stop until it takes me out.
Daily Trading Model & Rules for Shorts
1.) Limited to Shorts only…Don’t even think about Longs
2.) Don’t concern yourself with the missed stellar moves higher
3.) Look for Judas Rallies into LO (7:00 – 9:00 GMT) or NYO
4.) Look for OverBought Conditions on William %R 10 period or Stoch 10, 3, 3
5.) Upper Trinity Sell Zone
6.) R1 / R2 Pivot Sell Zone
7.) Judas Rallies into Key Resistance
8.) OTE Sells
9.) SMT USDX Bearish Divergence
10.) Type 1 Bearish Divergence Stoch
11.) Take 50% off at 25 pips / Move Stop to BreakEven after 1st Profit / Cover 100% of position at 15:00 GMT and no later
12.) Entry must take place at the low of the Asian Range or Higher
13.) Are we OverBought on 60 Minute Chart? This alone will save your backside
14.) No Daily Direction
15.) No Market Flow
16.) No Structure
17.) Only Short 60 Minute OverBought Readings
18.) LO Asian Range Low… Draw a line on your charts, Shorts will form above this level, Judas Rally into Resistance
19.) Accompanied by SMT, USDX SMT, OTE, Reflection, Type 1 Bearish Divergence on Stoch; Any One Of Those
20.) 30 Pip Stop, if stopped out you are done trading that day period.
21.) Most important rule is 60 Minute OverBought and Asian Range Low and Higher must be the Sell
22.) You will learn more by trading this way than any other way
23.) By Default you will learn Market Structure, Flow, Momentum, Market Maker Models
24.) This will be in the trading plan series in greater detail
25.) Backtest by highlighting the days 60 Minute was OverBought
26.) No Bias, just be a bear everyday all day
27.) Bias aids in longer term trades
Hey PIPhanger I think these rules in bold are pretty good and easy to follow. If you wanted to percentages even more in your favor you could say only short after a fractal high has formed on the daily, power of three style. Just doing a [I]very[/I] quick look back in the charts, these rules seem to be pretty good for at least getting 25-30 pips and then moving to BE. Thanks for sharing too, I like that sell above AR and buy below AR rule. Simple, but sometimes it is the simplest things that evade me
My observation of the chatroom is that everybody kept going short on the cable and long on the fiber because it just HAD to be overbought and oversold plus look at that divergence wow it’s obviously going to turn the other way. People kept calling top/bottoms and sure the fibs lined up right for the bias they called. Problem is they had the wrong bias.
Look at todays action on fiber. As far as I can see all these rules applied. I took the short on fiber took 25 pips and got stopped out on BE. I was wrong on the day but still made money.
Price rallied into Monday’s Asian session low. Made a OTE. Above the Pivot. In the TT sell Zone. 1hr Stoch OB and diverged. Bearish Div. with Cable. Not sure on USDX but I seem to remember I noticed some SMT div.
I don’t know what else do you really need? You have to just keep pulling the trigger. It’s important to take the 25 pips. Don’t worry about scoring the 100 pip hauls right now, especially in this market.
Bulls are strong right now. But the PIPHanger Bear will have it’s day!
First, I establish a direction I want to be trading in for the week (this CAN change mid week). I look at COT, figure out the main trend I should be following. I look for market flow, 4hr + either the daily or the 1hr. I then like to see price in the correct pivot zone (buy or sell) depending on which direction I want to trade. Below the CPP for longs, above the CPP for shorts. This establishes my direction. I’ve found that if my direction is right, I will have potentially a few trades in 1 week, if my directional bias is wrong, I usually don’t get any good entries for the week which keeps me out of the market and money in my pocket.
Then I look to find my entries well in advance. For my entries I like to have 3 confluences of S/R. Obviously one of the major ones being the OTE. It can be a combination of any 3 forms of horizontal S/R but must include the OTE and preferably the .702 (50% between 61.8 and 78.6) or the .786. I also like the swing of the OTE to be measured off of the 1hr or even 4hr/daily and with these larger OTE zones I either like to watch for a smaller OTE unfold during a killzone or wait for the .702 to .786 level again. Along with the .702/.786 level I typically will see a pivot or mid pivot, a manually place S/R level, an institutional level, 1.6000, 1.6050, 1.6080 1.6020 etc, or previous highs/lows. Essentially, OTE + 2 forms of horizontal S/R all within 5 or so pips of each other, the closer together the better.
When you spot your higher TF OTEs you have to remember that because they are of a higher TF they may not be reach during the following LO, or NYO, or even the next day. But, following this plan has helped me a lot. It provides me with good directional bias and high probability setups. I do not trade every day or even every week. I’ve had months where I traded just twice. I’ve also had weeks with over 5 prime set ups.
3 forms of directional bias:
-COT
-Market flow
-Pivot zones (the first two, COT and MF, are mandatory and must align, the pivot zones can be subbed for TT or ignored on certain occasions)
-Seasonal Tendencies (not required, but really is nice to see this align with COT data)
3 forms of S/R
-OTE
-2 forms or horizontal S/R, again the OTE is mandatory.
Another trading plan I have uses the 18/40 MAs as ICT has outlined. During trend these can act as S/R as well. Look for the MAs to be heading in the same direction and expanding. Wait for a 3 day fractal to form (if you search the MQL codebase you can find a fractal indicator that will print and size fractal pattern you want, 3 day, 5 day, 2132934 day, whatever). After this fractal pattern has form AND shown rejection from a prior S/R level you are good to go. Obviously you have to be aware of potential S/R that you may trade in to. If your broker has Sunday candles then count Sunday as a part of Monday, Sundays cannot validate a 3 day fractal pattern, wait for the close of Monday.
This is what works for me and may or may not work for you as well. As with everything it takes practice.
As Kubio posted, he was history trading. And i thought that it could be actually a good idea to try. So i thought is there any program on MT4 or a way to look at history data without knowing what will happen next day or next month.
For example you chose date you wanna “be in”, lets just say 2009.05.20 and you have all the data till that date, just as you would trade live. After that you could scroll forward to see the results. Wonder if thats even possible?
seriously.
as i am looking only for 10% i think your view might help me to improve or at least compare my analysis with yours.
