Ha, i had to step away from my charts for 10 mins, seems price came down, would have triggered me in almost to the pip and i’d now be up 10 pips… If there is one consistency in trading, its the markets never failing to deliver a cold slap to the groin !
Anyway, not pushing anything now, will see if anything unfolds during NY
First trade of the week. I went short AUD/USD at the OTE from the 05/08 swing point to the recent low. I’m looking for 1.0050 as TP1 and will trail the remaining 50 % if it will move lower. Can’t post chart as I’m trading on my smartphone.
Ok. Finally GU is doing what we were waiting from the start of this week. I closed half of my position at 20 pips and the rest at 53 pips, 1.6163 (Fib 127% swing projection level and ADR).
Now will wait for LC for setups.
sorry don’t have the link handy at this time (I’m on the move;)) but you can google “oanda order book” and “oanda historical open orders” its really interesting at times!
Hey everyone, just want to post a update on my end. Two trades done this month so far (this week) and account now at +4.4%. This represents a big accomplishment/milestone for me as I am now running with what I consider a sizable account (30k) and still trading my plan perfectly. I can’t explain the feeling of starting to see the same profit % I had recently in the past months on a smaller account now flowing in at this pace on a larger account. Very very exciting
Well done StephA. Keep it up. Not sure if this is appropriate but would you mind sharing your trade plan? Am curious to see which tools you use, how you use them and which rules you have to keep you out of certain trades, etc. Would be interesting for me and I probably also others in the community.
Sure, here is the plan I used for the past 3 months:
Only look for setups on the 1hr chart (traded only cable):
Confirm 4hr market flow
Look for a OTE (between 62% and 79% fib level) on the 1hr forming with a swing size minimum of 60pips in direction of market flow
Only take the trade if OTE lines up in matching pivot zone (buy or sell) and in a kill zone (I only traded LO and NYO). Price can be in opposite pivot zone but only up to 30pips max from central pivot … I find this still acceptable)
Never take a trade if trade entry stop loss breaks market flow direction (ie: 4hr market flow is bearish and price needs to go above 1.6510 to become bullish. Your trade entry stop loss cannot go above this price level as market flow will shift.
Do not take a trade if price forming OTE has already passed the 79%. I let those go if price retraces back to the OTE sweet spot.
This method will produce about 9 trades a month or so on average trading only the cable based on 1 year backtesting. The concept behind this method is basically to filter out smaller OTEs and only trade the bigger moves at the 1hr level.
I have been working on another plan now this past month only trading off the 4hr chart and looking for setups on many other pairs. This is the plan I am actually starting to use this month. I back tested the hell out of it on many pairs and it is very promising. I don’t want to post it here and derail the thread as it does not line up with the same guidelines and tools put forward here. If interested send me a private message and I can give you more details.
Thanks for sharing StephA! Do you mind me asking how you handle your stops/targets? 25pip stop? BE at 25? I’d also be interested in your new plan, but I can’t PM you directly because of my low post count.
Forgot to mention those … good point. Here they are:
Stop loss is always 30pips
Take profit levels are very generic as follows:
TP1= 30pips (I took 40% off)
TP2= 123% fib projection for smaller swings (less than 100 pips) or hold trade till 13:00 EST
TP2= 0% fib for larger swings (more than 100 pips) or hold trade till 13:00 EST. The 0% fib is basically the top of the OTE swing measured.
These TP2 levels are great when market is trending but I noticed don’t hold well when ranging. If I see market is ranging, I will look to take full profit at 30pips. My usual risk per trade is also 2%.
Thanks for your post. If you do not mind I would like to know more on your current method trading directly from the 4hr. Would appreciate any details you can share but I cannot email you personally. No permission.
I was wondering. Do you normally use market orders or have pre defined pending orders?
I have been following your posts closely as you struck me as a guy who is quite structured in your approach with proper backtesting and all. You have gained my respect. Am glad you managed to make 4.4% with your bigger account. Way to go.
Do you normally do backtesting on a normal mt4 platform and just scrolling candle by candle or do you have a better method. I find it a bit difficult to scroll that way, then having to change timeframe for market flow and such.
Thank you so much for your post. It’s very helpful for a newbie like me. I have a couple of questions on divergence. If there is a way to send you an email, I would have done that so that I don’t flood the thread with such basic questions. I have seen Mike’s video on Correlation concepts and still missing something on this subject
SMT divergence is divergence between, let us say, Eur/Usd and Gbp/Usd pairs?
USDX divergence means the divergence between, let us say, Eur/Usd and Usdx? Is this correct?
