I like what you wrote… I was also long for the whole week… stayed flat until today and took 2 trades on fiber today. both longs and both got stopped out at BE (I moved SL to BE earlier than usual at around +15 pips…and I traded on 0.5%, hence tiny lots… and I have a rule in my strategy to NOT scale out at +20-30pips if my lot sizes are below 0.1lots… anyway no harm done and no win either…
I think you are right… without realizing it I probably tend to try and nail a bottom of a swing (or the high…) and this is why I tend to get my weekly bias wrong…
my profitable trades are, probably for the same reason, only small moves and not the 100 pip moves that would allow me to achieve my ROI-goals…
I also need to trade more on what I SEE rather than what I expect to be happening…
I appreciate it (seriously!) for kind of smacking this reality in my face!
What I noticed in the past 2 weeks, and was about to post about it in here one of these days:
I seem to struggle also with something, which might be related to the same problem you mentioned…
at LO I know exactly where I will enter for longs, and where to enter for shorts
(I stopped of trying to get a daily bias - strangely my performance improved since I stopped getting a daily bias?!;))
I mark the levels of where I expect price retracements for possible entry levels… this is all fine and seems to work for me BUT
for this to work out, I need price to retrace… if price starts rallying down right out of asian range without doing a judas to raid stops above asian range, I will never catch it with my approach…
not completely sure how to tackle this problem, but I’ll figure it out over time;)
cheers and happy hunting
EDIT: I am actually not all that self-centered as it appears with all the "I"s that where used in this post…
No offense of course, but that’s the thing with these divergence. The more wider they are the more its unknown when divergence power will take the chart and push it the right direction. I will repost the same chart with more divergence… For example 1 divergence - if you were looking for short you could have been taken out 2-3 times everyday till you got your short. And i believe by 3 wrong time you just way your hand and say it won’t happen. Ofc next day it goes down and all you are left is “i had it right!”… Sorry for negative mood and all, seriously, but i am pretty down right now so that’s why point of view is like that. But in the end, is this the wrong question to ask about SMT? How wide should we look? I know i only look at 1h because its more clear. Well after today’s case i start to think its not. You saw divergence on 5m chart, does that have power to shift a 100 move? I don’t know … And all am left is questions questions questions…
