The Inner Circle Trader's Millionaire Traders Guild

[johnnykanoo]

During LO I was looking for this to climb a bit more myself, but if you draw your fib from yesterday’s Asian range you will find this area falls in the OTE range 62-79 depending where you pull your fib from. Play with it a bit and you will see. Then it gave a nice nesting 5min OTE to the pip. I went short at 1.28606. It took it’s time but well worth the wait, when it dropped it dropped hard This trade took place during the 10:00GMT hour which ICT has discussed as a time to watch for another Judas pull back. I like to wait for the smaller 5min OTE to enter a trade. I miss some moves but I feel a bit more comfortable with the entries. Sorry if this doesn’t make sense but my 3 yr old is screaming as I’m typing. GLGT

Read more: 301 Moved Permanently

Okay I see it on the 5 min. Your right it was a good ote entry. I appreciate the feedback.

[tycoon83]

Hey Tycoon

Currently im still demo-ing with an Oanda account, but tbh, i quite liked their web based platform for placing trades - i was actually planning to go live with them later this year - the amount ill be going live with, i dont see myself being taxed on any profits earned anyway… However, this is interesting to know about the spread betting accounts. Are there any downside to using them over a proper broker? I started out with Oanda and haven’t got a real bad word to say about them to be honest as i heard there a reputable broker and good for noobs…

However if we can get around taxes in the UK with these spread betting accounts, might be something i’ll look into necessary for me - as i said i’ll only be starting with a small amount which im sure will not fall under any tax bracket as far as im aware…[/QUOTE]

I chose spread betting for the tax reasons. I haven’t found any downside except for the charting, I use MT4 for all my analysis plus we can upload all the extra indicators like asian range and trinity levels on it and then I just place my trade with IG index, I also have the app on my iphone so i can keep track of my trade if i’m away from my computer, this includes adjusting my stop or closing the trade manually. hope this helps, ive never tried Oanda so I cant compare but I defo think its worth looking into since you’re in the UK.

P.S stop calling yourself a noob! you are way better than you think my money says you will be one of the ones at the finish line when the success stories start coming through.

[tycoon83]

ICT, “Easy setup given your rules”

I guess I missed something? Didn’t see it and still don’t see it?

Kind of pisses me off when you keep saying easy trades, all you need is 25 pips a week, easy money, blah blah blah…

yeah easy to gain negative 25 pips a week…

Pip hanger I hope I’ve got this wrong man but you are coming across a bit rude! how ICT is not offended I don’t know, nor how he has the patience to keep helping you when some of your comments can easily be taken the wrong way.

We aren’t paying ICT nor does he have the obligation to help us but out of the kindness of his heart he is! Your comments and a couple of others give off the vibe that ICT owes us something!

People on this thread need to be a bit more humble and grateful just because they are struggling a bit doesn’t justify taking it out on ICT.
If this kind of attitude escalates then my biggest fear is that Michael won’t feel his efforts are wanted or appreciated and leave, then you won’t be the only one who is PISSED OFF.

His work is helping so many of us and I don’t want a few negative people to be the voice of this thread.

Rant over…sorry if I got this wrong people…let get a bit more positive!

[PIPhanger]

Pip hanger I hope I’ve got this wrong man but you are coming across a bit rude! how ICT is not offended I don’t know, nor how he has the patience to keep helping you when some of your comments can easily be taken the wrong way.

We aren’t paying ICT nor does he have the obligation to help us but out of the kindness of his heart he is! Your comments and a couple of others give off the vibe that ICT owes us something!

People on this thread need to be a bit more humble and grateful just because they are struggling a bit doesn’t justify taking it out on ICT.
If this kind of attitude escalates then my biggest fear is that Michael won’t feel his efforts are wanted or appreciated and leave, then you won’t be the only one who is PISSED OFF.

His work is helping so many of us and I don’t want a few negative people to be the voice of this thread.

Rant over…sorry if I got this wrong people…let get a bit more positive!

All I have to say is ICT knows how to get a hold of me, if I am rude in his eyes or if he wants me to leave then all he has to do is say so…

[SanJ]

I chose spread betting for the tax reasons. I haven’t found any downside except for the charting, I use MT4 for all my analysis plus we can upload all the extra indicators like asian range and trinity levels on it and then I just place my trade with IG index, I also have the app on my iphone so i can keep track of my trade if i’m away from my computer, this includes adjusting my stop or closing the trade manually. hope this helps, ive never tried Oanda so I cant compare but I defo think its worth looking into since you’re in the UK.

P.S stop calling yourself a noob! you are way better than you think my money says you will be one of the ones at the finish line when the success stories start coming through.

Thanks Tycoon! Honestly, your comments mean a lot… But at the same time, i’ve havent even been at this a year, i think its too early to judge anything yet… But nonetheless, i really hope i can make it in this game…

I see your London based, maybe we should meet for some forex work when im back in the UK!

[SanJ]

Ok, this could be a long post so be prepared folks…

I sense a lot of frustration from a lot of people in the forum, and i felt the same way last week… This week not so much, but the market has definately been taking its toll on all of us i think…

Anyway, ive been sitting at my charts trying to go top down now to try and make sense of the markets and try and get some game plan set out as to what i think could come of all this… Bare in mind, everything i post is from a technical view, not even accounting for any crazy things that could happen in the Euro situation which could make all these hours wasted lol…

Ok… So i think everyone has been feeling a bullish vibe coming on, i certainly have but i think its hard to tell with all this EU situation going on at the moment… I think, well im hoping i’ve made a little breakthrough at this moment (no doubt the market will rip through my analysis and do the opposite lol)

3 Major Market Indicies

Ok out of the 3 market indicies, ive picked the next real relevent swing low which will come into play soon, and from the looks of the chart (S&P on the left, DJ in the middle and Nasdaq on the right), from that same swing low points the DJ looks set to make a lower low on that swing compared to the S&P 500. This would provide a significant bullish crack in correlation…

Looking at the Cable, Fiber and USDx…

(The USDx on the left, the cable in the middle and fiber on the right…)
Notice the fiber and USDx are in sync with eachother… The lower low posted from the swing point shows the same higher high in the USDx. But the cable has failed to make a lower low based on that same swing point - crack in correlation

The Cable vs the Fiber

I think as most have noted, the fiber has been extremely bearish and just been dropping - especially the huge drop today… Note in the picture the Fiber is close approaching making a lower low from the swing point - when if that low is broken, the cable will be a few hundred pips from breaking this same low… Could lead to a crack in correlation…

The Cable

A zoomed out 4H shows the cable approaching its OTE on this time frame… The 79% retracement level lies on the 1.5920 level - institutional level and also close to the 1.593 support level which i have marked on my charts…

So basically, if all plays out like i have posted, the significant lower lows being made showing a crack in correlation, with the cable approaching its OTE on a higher time frames, ill be looking to see some reversal in this bearish action soon…
Although - who knows what will happen with this ongoing EU situation…

Anyway just thought i would share some thoughts… And as always, any comments more than welcome…

:57:

[tycoon83]

Thanks Tycoon! Honestly, your comments mean a lot… But at the same time, i’ve havent even been at this a year, i think its too early to judge anything yet… But nonetheless, i really hope i can make it in this game…

I see your London based, maybe we should meet for some forex work when im back in the UK!

yeah cool, let me know when you’re back, me and my mate have been studying ICT concepts for about a year and a half so i’m happy to share and help each other out. Hopefully we can start up a London or UK club when there is enough of us. The more of us pulling in the same direction will get us there sooner.

Anyone got any good names for it?..I was thinking …The Huddleston Boys …or does that sound a bit gangster lol

[Thrax]

Hi Sanjeev,

Nice analysis.

I notice you have not mentioned the bonds, you should look to include these in your top down analysis. They are available here: PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts.

“If yields are dropping and one of the yields fails to make a lower low, we look for a USD bounce. If yields are rising and one of the yields fails to make a higher high, we look for an USD slide”. Credit to FXTraderCro for pointing this out to me.

Also, consider looking at the Oanda historical open orders to give an insight into market sentiment: Historical Open Orders | OANDA fxTrade. I don’t really have any top tips about analysing this, I’ve yet to add it into my toolkit, but it’s on the cards and of importance.

Finally, don’t forget about the clues the monthly and weekly timeframe analysis can give you. Top down really should start from the monthly and work to the set-up timeframe you’re using (perhaps 4 hourly, or maybe hourly).

[Thrax]

Well here is the short and sweet analysis of why I didn’t trade today and was thinking we would see longs…

Yesterday when I asked ICT what you think of the SMT Divergence between cable and fiber you simply said Bullish. I was talking about monday cable traded higher while fiber traded lower…this could be either or in my eyes, bullish or bearish…which ever way it was hugh divergence. Then someone else asked you what your bias was for this week and you simply said bullish. So why in the hell would I want to short in a market you think is bullish…

On the Daily Charts we had Cable bouncing right off the 6060 level you marked for us in your market review. I thought for sure see this continue today higher. The Fiber also slammed right into 2850. We have bullish divergence at a key level on the Daily.

Cable 15 minute chart we have price trading up for the day into an OTE from yesterdays high to recent low, but it’s at MR1 and 6110 level, but we have R1 right above yesterdays high and usually when I see this price will go up there and get the stops and then continue down…On the 1HR chart we don’t have overbought conditions or divergence that go with my rules.

Fiber 15 minute chart we have price trading up for the day but only got the 62% and I would of been looking for the sweet spot, only way I would of been entering this was to chase price. The second OTE wasn’t even in a killzone. The 1HR was overbought but at MR1 and again usually price when I trade it will head up to R1 before continuing down.

We are in the buy zone of the traders trinity on the cable and I could see an OTE forming for a great long, but as you can see we just blew through the OTE.

It seems like the best setups happen when all the signals are pointing 50/50 either way, then we have a big move in one direction, but it has me so confused at that point I don’t know where it will go. I can see all this in hindsight but what good does this do for me. I take this and study it then next week comes along and I start spinning my wheels again.

You also say if we open at or near CPP it is 50/50 either way…so why would I trade today both pairs opened at or near CPP.

With the 20, 50, 80, 00 levels, plus MR1, R1, CPP, MS1, S1, plus pivots inbetween these, OTE, reflection, hidden OTE, turtle soup, etc…yeah I can find a setup that has 3 or more confluences at any killzone, but guess what it usually is wrong if not always wrong…You see why I think all this is done in hindsight? of course you can see confluences and setups all over the place…Then you tell me well you got to wait for time and price to match up…well then you extend the LO 5 hours, NYO 4 hours, LC an hour or 2, asian session 4 hours…after all that is said and done you can trade just about any time you want…it covers the whole freaking trading week…Then you can have a judas before the true judas or multiple judas all in the same killzone…then you say follow market flow…well if price goes the other way you then tell me well you have to keep the key levels in mind…well damn the passed couple weeks we have just been blowing through key levels like crazy…Then the levels aren’t always perfect or hardly even close but it counts as a trade other times it doesn’t count as a trade…etc…

They you act like this is so easy in your market reviews, you always say something like there another easy trade for the guys that don’t believe and think this is hindsight…then you rant on about how all you need is 25 pips for a week to be a millionaire, one trade a week that is it, it’s a peice of cake…blah blah blah…piece of cake my a**…It’s a freakin piece of cake to lose 25 pips a week that I know for sure…

You see my frustration yet???

Woah. Slow down. Do a top down analysis and let that determine whether you’re a bull or a bear.

You can be profitable even if you’re on the wrong side of the market, just you make much more profit being right. Why say this? Cut out half your trade at 10, 15 or 20 pips and set the other half to break even when you cut half out. Start cutting at 10 pips until you build up the confidence to move it the cut out to 15 pips, then try 20 pips, then try 25 pips. You’ll find the one that’s right for you. If you’re looking at moves that don’t have the potential to at least move 75 pips, be more selective. Don’t place a trade every day, look every day, but wait for that 1 Risk:5 Reward trade minimum, before you think about placing a trade.

It sounds like you’re trying to spray trades at the market and not many of them are sticking. Turn your trades quantity down a wick. If you miss one or two trades, it doesn’t matter, better than losing 4 or 5.

Sure, it’s not easy, but it is possible to succeed.

[Thrax]

I swear this pisses me off more then anything, someone with 7 posts comes on here to tell me what to do…did you not read the whole thread and see that i’ve been pissed for awhile now…how can you cut a trade out at 10 pips when it never goes a pip in your freakin direction??? riddle that one for me would you?

Maybe trading isn’t for you. Honestly, I’m glad your trades are failing. More money for me.

[PIPhanger]

Maybe trading isn’t for you. Honestly, I’m glad your trades are failing. More money for me.

yepp good thing for you I moved to demo trading awhile back…

[PIPhanger]

Woah. Slow down. Do a top down analysis and let that determine whether you’re a bull or a bear.

You can be profitable even if you’re on the wrong side of the market, just you make much more profit being right.

So if you can be profitable even if you’re on the wrong side of the market, how would you make profit going long today?

[Thrax]

Maybe trading isn’t for you. Honestly, I’m glad your trades are failing. More money for me.

Sure, a bit unfair. But this is what will happen.

The way I work is this. I wait to see that price stops at my level, if it goes even a micro pip above it, I stop, wait and usually discard the trade, my analysis was wrong and I try to find the next OTE up or down, depending whether market is bullish or bearish at the time. In the end if I really was right, well, I was wrong because price bounced off a level I wasn’t looking at. I’ll be content to wait for the next opportunity.

If you’re using the 5 minute chart as your trigger chart you’ll notice for pretty much every trade you’re trying to place that was/would have been successful that price bounced off/nearly off your level about three times before the market gave way and turned direction. The first bounce will be very sharp. By sharp, I mean in seconds, often by 10 or more pips before price attacks it again.

If you really want to be sure, wait for price to bounce a couple or more times on the 5 minute and then dip away from the 79 and down to the 70.5, when it goes below and stays below the 70.5, place your trade. Use a similar tactic with the 70.5 and 61.8.

If you’re putting the trade in the first time price hits your level, more fool you.

Essentially, slow down, pretty much my opening gambit to you. Monitor price action at your interest level more closely and determine the patterns it makes that make you comfortable/uncomfortable that you’re right before you place the trade.

Edit: Quantify the word sharp.

[Thrax]

So if you can be profitable even if you’re on the wrong side of the market, how would you make profit going long today?

You could have pulled 20 pips out of the cable and 40 pips out the fiber at LO if you were a bull.

[PIPhanger]

You could have pulled 20 pips out of the cable and 40 pips out the fiber at LO if you were a bull.

Not in the times we trade…plus wouldn’t of gotten an entry the way ICT shows us…Looks like you need to go over killzones video…

[NorwegianBlue]

I can understand PipHanger’s frustation. To follow ICT for years, and have it still not coming together is incredibly frustrating. “Ok, it’s not working now, but there’s a new video coming out soon. That will put it all together,” … and then it doesn’t. And the cycle repeats.

On the other hand, it’s not really useful to bring negativity like this to the thread.

You’re either working the system, or you’re not. Complaining and sarcasm is not productive.

[PIPhanger]

I can understand PipHanger’s frustation. To follow ICT for years, and have it still not coming together is incredibly frustrating. “Ok, it’s not working now, but there’s a new video coming out soon. That will put it all together,” … and then it doesn’t. And the cycle repeats.

On the other hand, it’s not really useful to bring negativity like this to the thread.

You’re either working the system, or you’re not. Complaining and sarcasm is not productive.

True, hopefully one of these days I can laugh at myself for how stupid I was…

[Thrax]

Not in the times we trade…plus wouldn’t of gotten an entry the way ICT shows us…Looks like you need to go over killzones video…

I’m sorry you’re not having success. I tried to help.

[JackMarkets]

I understand the frustration PipHangar - basically fiber and cable decided to blow through the levels. I do not watch ICTs market review videos anymore because his opinion on what is going to happen makes me have an unfounded bias (all respect to ICT, his opinion at the weekend is wrong as often as it is right, which is no disrespect since charts change everyday and he is not a fortune teller). The thing is with ICTs technique is that you should only act on confirmation of a level, which doesn’t happen often, and it can result in a lot of frustration and spending all day doing nothing. Its sometimes frustrating reading other peoples trades and reading that you missed an OTE here, and a pivot there, but in reality, a lot of these successful traders are not that successful, and are just showing off their rare winning trades. Its especially frustrating when other people seem to have these opportunities everyday - let me tell you that this does not happen. ICT type trades only occur a couple of times a week. Often in ranging market like we have had you will also only get partial targets, and have the other half hit your stop loss, and you will be nursing a 0.25% win and a scratch trade every week or so. Only trade what you think is obvious, and not what someone else thinks is ‘obvious.’

The important thing with ICTs techniques is absolute patience, and realisation that it is a marathon, that you have to crawl, over broken glass… Don’t get frustrated and impatient by other peoples wins and losses (bragging and not admitting failure is a big characteristic of lots of forex traders) and just concentrate on your own trades. Sometimes the forum can be destructive if you are a competitive person or feel you need to keep up with other peoples published results.

[When_Pips_Fly]

I’ve been following ICT for about a year now, too. I’ve been trying to wrap my head around currency trading for about two. I don’t really trade that much but I do have a live Oanda account that I’ve deposited 100 dollars.

It is frustrating. I feel like I’ve learned a lot and yet I’m reluctant to pull the trigger on trades unless they are flipping OBVIOUS.

Here’s my analysis for what might happen tomorrow.

On Fiber, we’ve hit the 200% Trinity tool retracement. If you do the same with Cable, we’ve hit the 162% retracement. I don’t think that’s insignificant, especially since…

We have a lot of important news tomorrow. A BOE speech, a BOE inflation report, and the FOMC meetings will definitely move the currency pairs.

I’m not trading tomorrow but I will definitely be watching.

I don’t know when I will start trading. Something hasn’t clicked yet. I feel you PIPhanger