The Inner Circle Trader's Millionaire Traders Guild

[TradeViper]

PH, chill, believe me I know how much it hurts and how frustrating it can be.

I will give you the macro answer, key levels, blah, blah, blah, blah, ocd ppd mld. GREECE, blah, blah, blah, blah, GREECE, 20, 50, 80, 00, GREECE, MR1, R1, CPP, MS1, GREECE. So I think the answer to all of your questions, as far as the EURO is concerned is GREECE. Let me look at the old Blotter here, yep, here it is GREECE, SellSht EUR/USD 5/14/2012 10:05:28 AM (no size Guys) 1.28313 and Buy EUR/USD 5/15/2012 7:40:49 PM (no size again) 1.27373. With all of the bad news, you had to know the EURO was going to dump, if you were paying attention to the news. We are not trading the news here, just paying attention to it. You can look at your own chart, I suggest 1 hr, look at the entry, look at the Swing I held through, now see if any of it lines up with anything you were looking at.

You see it is soo easy, NOT. There is nothing easy about trading, and I know this is ICTs thread but I must respectfully disagree, there is nothing easy about trading, ooops I said it again. For example, why didn’t I close the trade out on the spike through 2760, why didn’t I get out at a stop at 2860 or so. When people ask me what my Positive Expectancy is I proudly say, 58-63%, yep thats my Alpha baby, a whole, just barely above 50%. Nothing is given to you in trading, JP Morgan just lost 2 Billion, on a hedge, against a hedge, against a hedge, these people have all of the bells and whistles, terminals, servers with light fiber connections AT the exchanges etc, and they still lost 2 billion. So anyone who thinks that its not that hard is just plain wrong. Oh and what the heck is that stupid rose doing in my post???

PH, trading is hard, it takes years to gain the self control needed to be successful, clear your charts and your mind, pick up the pieces, go back to the sim if needed, look for just one trade, and try again. If it is too much for now, put it down and pick it up later. The markets will be here, your money may not. Anyway, if it means anything, most likely not, I’m in your corner.

The Ever In The Little Guys Corner VIPER

[velho2008]

Hello everyone,
I just want to leave at you Pip that, I went through the same thing…
Still have less time studying ICT stuff than you but we almost do the same mistakes.
I was waiting for ICT reviews to get the LVL´s that he was watching for…after lossing some trades I realized that I was doing all wrong…
ICT are giving all this as he plan to teach us to think independently…so why should I wait for ICT reviews for the week? why should i trust in his analysis?
This questions make me think…
Then I start to question my self…is this right? doubting ICT reviews?
I went through a lot of confusion…but in the end of this period of time (just stopped recently) the answer came up…hell yeah :57:
Because it was when I realize that that moment I started to think for my self…Independently…questioning ICT´s reviews…
Like fighting against the sensei…:56:
But our sensei (like others senseis) allways will have something more for us…to help us not to give up…to help seeing things in different ways…

PS. when I´m down I try to think like this… It can pull me down but then I’ll rise again because what doesn’t kills me, only makes me stronger.

[mizugami7523]

Just because a system doesn’t work for you, doesn’t mean it doesn’t. Don’t beat yourself up. Learn what you can, keep what you can use, move on. You know…that the majority of people on a trading forum are not successful. Hate to tell you, but successful traders do not spend time in these forums. The few successful traders on this forum should be respected. I’ve learned a lot off this forum, but i never follow anyones trade. I don’t even trade the pairs here. What i have learned here has changed me tremendously. But it has nothing to do with the techniques. More the method.

[SanJ]

Hi Sanjeev,

Nice analysis.

I notice you have not mentioned the bonds, you should look to include these in your top down analysis. They are available here: PerfCharts - StockCharts.com - Free Charts.

“If yields are dropping and one of the yields fails to make a lower low, we look for a USD bounce. If yields are rising and one of the yields fails to make a higher high, we look for an USD slide”. Credit to FXTraderCro for pointing this out to me.

Also, consider looking at the Oanda historical open orders to give an insight into market sentiment: Historical Open Orders | OANDA fxTrade. I don’t really have any top tips about analysing this, I’ve yet to add it into my toolkit, but it’s on the cards and of importance.

Finally, don’t forget about the clues the monthly and weekly timeframe analysis can give you. Top down really should start from the monthly and work to the set-up timeframe you’re using (perhaps 4 hourly, or maybe hourly).

Hey Thrax

I agree, and my top down analysis always does start from the monthly and then on the weekly and i rarely go further down than a 4 hour tbh… The monthly is mainly to determine any overall big picture trends, and then after that i start to key off the main support and resistance lines which are around the area where price currently is… I did include this in my yesterday’s top down analysis but i didnt post it in the thread as yesterday’s post was more aimed at the correlation aspects…

Cheers for the tip on bonds, if im honest, i’ve never really looked at them, ive only just started looking at the indicies not too long ago. But hey if it’ll give me a better view and another weapon in my tool box ill definately check it out…

I am a bit skeptical about the Oanda open orders, i’ve never followed them on a daily weekly basis but i have had a glance every now and again and from my perspective, it seems very shakey - in the sense that sometimes the market seems to be positioned the right direction, and then other times ive seen the majority of the market being slaughtered… Hmmm

When i got up this morning and saw the Cable and Fiber still dropping, tbh i didnt even know where to start looking for entries… I think Michael said it best in a review i saw a while ago, ‘If your not riding that train wreck, then get the hell out the way’… It seems holding my short open yesterday even with a 1/4 position would now have me sitting on almost 170 pips… Oh well, hindesight is 20:20! I’m likely to be flat today and on the sidelines as i’ve done no real analysis for today’s trading…

Goodluck to anyone else :57:

[SanJ]

Well here is the short and sweet analysis of why I didn’t trade today and was thinking we would see longs…

Yesterday [B]when I asked ICT what you think of the SMT Divergence between cable and fiber you simply said Bullish[/B]. I was talking about monday cable traded higher while fiber traded lower…this could be either or in my eyes, bullish or bearish…which ever way it was hugh divergence. Then someone else asked you [B]what your bias was for this week and you simply said bullish[/B]. So why in the hell [B]would I want to short in a market you think is bullish[/B]…

You see my frustration yet???

If you think back to the week where in the market review, ICT said this week he expected bearish action, and it was a bulls game all week… He then posted and said about how sloppy top down analysis made him miss the fact that there was an incling to bullish action to come…

However, i too was swayed by this video… I saw the bullish action happening infront of me on my charts but all i kept thinking is that “ICT said bearish, so bearish it is”… What i learnt from that week? It doesnt matter what you think, or anybody else on this forum thinks - included ICT (no offence intended). I think whats most important is that you devise [B]your own bias[/B] from [B]your own analysis[/B]… This is what really counts… The market doesnt care what people think and what there expectations are… It really is true - trade what you see and not what you think…

Well here is the short and sweet analysis of why I didn’t trade today and was thinking we would see longs…

Yesterday when I asked ICT what you think of the SMT Divergence between cable and fiber you simply said Bullish. [B]I was talking about monday cable traded higher while fiber traded lower…this could be either or in my eyes, bullish or bearish…which ever way it was hugh divergence[/B]. Then someone else asked you what your bias was for this week and you simply said bullish. So why in the hell would I want to short in a market you think is bullish…

You see my frustration yet???

When i first saw this divergance i was also baffled, as depending on which way you looked at it, it could mean bullish and bearish… For me, i found my answer when i stopped to look at the wider picture… I went back over and started comparing the cable and the fiber relative to the USDx… If you’ll note in that divergence, the fiber and the USDx made lower low’s and higher highs respectively - maintaining their correlation… however, the cable made higher highs and i think that was the crack in correlation… That was the one out of the 3 that was going against it making that the break in correlation, which i took as distribution… This coupled with the fact that the 4H market flow still indicated bearish action, i went with this bias…

So if you can be profitable even if you’re on the wrong side of the market, how would you make profit going long today?

Im not trying to be a complete a**hole when i do this, and believe me i am not trying to be patronizing… This is coming from the same person who had a break down at the end of last week and [B]blew 6% of my demo account [/B]that week… So i’m not doing this to claim im a better trader or anything like that - so please bear this in mind when your reading this…

You ask how could you have made a profitable trade today… Note this post i made yesterday:
http://forums.babypips.com/show-me-money-daytrading/43211-inner-circle-traders-millionaire-traders-guild-140.html#post350962
Not ideal, but it bagged me 20 pips going [I]long[/I] in yesterday environment, granted i got taken out at BE shortly after, but i made the pips and i felt i had the analysis to go along with it…

Again, note im not trying to be patronizing, i struggle just as much to make it in this market, and i felt your same frustration last week. In no way am i saying ive made it through the tunnel and i can see the light, im waiting for my next cold slap in the groin from the market… All im saying is, coming back this week, with a fresh mindset, and ensuring i am only taken trades that i have anticipated before hand - and no longer reacting to the market has enabled me to get 3% up this week so far… And on a week like this, im damn proud of my self for it… Now my biggest battle is just to keep this up…

My point really is, don’t listen and be swayed by others views, you really can make money in the market trading in any direction - given your analysis is sound…

Anyway, keep your head up buddy, determination will get you through this - at the end of the day, this is what it comes down to… How bad do you really want it?

:57:

[FXTraderCro]

I took a countertrend LO trade on the Cable, long from 5940 based on HTF Fib Support + Pivot Buy Zone. Targeting 5995 and the remaining open until 15:00 GMT with a trailing stop.

EDIT: stop hit

[SanJ]

Ok, managed to escape from work… Eyeing a setup on the cable…

Got a buy set to trigger at 1.5904. Reasons:

• NY Kill Zone
• Buy zone pivot - S1
• Close to big fig 1.59
• OTE
• Bullish SMT divergence between cable and fiber
• Bullish divergence between cable and USDx

Cable and Fiber

Cable and USDx

Cable Entry

:57:

EDIT: Order never got filled, cancelling it… Looks like im flat today…

[JackMarkets]

Interesting - although isn’t the teaching that you should wait for a fractal bottom to form before going long (there is nothing on 4H or daily atm)? It might be a good trade - seems like 5930 was a good daily level (that the market blew through again), but you are speculating on a low forming rather than waiting for one to be formed. If you run a fib on 1hr to the low, you get a nice short confluence at 6050ish for a short at ote/old support turned resistance, round number, S2, and its with the current bearish action -will obviously also be overbought on indis once/if it gets there.

This is just for discussion, not to influence your ideas btw.

[SanJ]

I see where your coming from… I agree, its an aggressive trade, going long in an environment like this, of course the shorts are a much better call at this moment

I just didnt feel to comfortable selling in a buy zone pivot area along with the confluence of the correlation divergences i found…

Price hasnt seemed to move back down my way like i hoped it would have so the trade may not even happen at all at the moment lol…

Its a tricky one, in an environment like this, i guess it could go either way! Time will tell as always…

[stolentortoise]

I have been reading this thread for some time and not posted on it yet. I am full of respect for what Michael does here and how he is trying to educate and help people. I don’t use his methods though because at this stage I don’t get it. If I tried to use Michaels methods in trying to set up a trade I would probably be looking at something like LOSMTAsainRangeKZTrinityDivergenceFIB…

I continue to read the stuff but having spent a few days in the chat room I quickly realised that is as bad a place to be for a new trader.

I have had a live account for a month and it is now 4% up, I am using a “I can afford to lose this but I really would rather not” amount of money before I put my full amount in. At one point it was 6% down.

What has changed for me is that I now get the following things.

You will not win every trade and nor do I expect to. What I do aim for is a 2:1 risk reward ratio, that allows me to lose 2 trades for every 1 I win and still break even, 33%. If I get a 50% success rate I make money. Perhaps I am a quick learner but I get that when I place a trade in accordance with the system what I am doing is controlling the loss, about the only thing I can control when a trade goes live. If I followed the system and I lost then it is still a good trade. How do I manage the trade, I don’t, I set my order and let it run. In the long run, as long as I can be right as often as I am wrong, ( I am hoping for it to be right more than 50% of the time otherwise I may as well toss a coin for which way I decide to bet) I am going to make money. One trade does not make or break a system, if you are trading for the next 10 years you will almost certainly have 5 losers in a row.

If you make a trade and it gets stopped out, then pat yourself on the back if you followed your system, you did it right.

[velho2008]

Interesting - although isn’t the teaching that you should wait for a fractal bottom to form before going long (there is nothing on 4H or daily atm)? It might be a good trade - seems like 5930 was a good daily level (that the market blew through again), but you are speculating on a low forming rather than waiting for one to be formed. If you run a fib on 1hr to the low, you get a nice short confluence at 6050ish for a short at ote/old support turned resistance, round number, S2, and its with the current bearish action -will obviously also be overbought on indis once/if it gets there.

This is just for discussion, not to influence your ideas btw.

If you look closer 1.5893 is a old low…that give you some probability for a bounce and it did…50 pips easy!

[velho2008]

I´m short but was watching that lvl for a possibel bounce for a long but since I´m already in the market no more trades for me this week…

[Thrax]

I’m going to put this out there as a cheat-sheet for those trying to grasp cable, fiber and USD Index divergences.

I believe I got the text right, but I am not firing on all cylinders today so if anyone can confirm or correct the text I’ll update the post if needed.

Edit: I appreciate the text is hard to read now it’s on the forum, but you can easily do a similar set of labels on your own charts. I’m easily confused, so I need these labels to stop my goldfish memory hurting my trades.

[Age]

Hey guys!
I am watching AUD/USD today

• we have a short bias on daily and 4hour
• Fib OTE
• Pivot
• round number 0.9950

negative = it is pretty oversold on daily and probably finding support in the daily fib 0.618

The thing is that even if its oversold - on intraday chances are big that it will at least retest the 0.9900 area which is about 50 pips range.

[SteveB]

@Age

Hey guys!
I am watching AUD/USD today

• we have a short bias on daily and 4hour
• Fib OTE
• Pivot
• round number 0.9950

negative = it is pretty oversold on daily and probably finding support in the daily fib 0.618

The thing is that even if its oversold - on intraday chances are big that it will at least retest the 0.9900 area which is about 50 pips range.

Hi you have done me favor today, I have been watching this pair for some time as the have been heading toward a support line and now broken from 2 years ago see pic. Anyway I have a bad day today so decided not take this trade, reading your post gave me the encouragement to go with it, so thank you. Interested to know why you felt strongly about it retesting 0.9900.

GLGT

[fred9455]

Interesting - although isn’t the teaching that you should wait for a fractal bottom to form before going long (there is nothing on 4H or daily atm)? It might be a good trade - seems like 5930 was a good daily level (that the market blew through again), but you are speculating on a low forming rather than waiting for one to be formed. If you run a fib on 1hr to the low, you get a nice short confluence at 6050ish for a short at ote/old support turned resistance, round number, S2, and its with the current bearish action -will obviously also be overbought on indis once/if it gets there.

This is just for discussion, not to influence your ideas btw.

I agree with you JackMarkets, I try to always wait for a candlestick reversal pattern on the 4hr chart before changing my bias.

[kubio]

For anyone following me and my legislation roadblock, I have opened an account with Alpari UK, and they don’t seem to have a problem with Albertans… Yet.

I hope they are a decent broker… :44:

well done!

they are in my ‘‘top 3 brokers’’ list. in fact would be my number one choice if i’m looking for ‘‘regular’’ fx broker and not spread betting (they also started offering SB recently, but i’m quiet happy with the present one for now).

:41:

[FXTraderCro]

NYO worked out much better. I entered a AUD/USD short at 0.9950 based on the 62 % Fib from yesterday’s high to today’s LO low, institutional price level and Mid-Resistance Pivot Level. I took 70 % off for a 40 pips profit and have the remaining 30 % running with the stop slightly below the entry level.

[Pippard]

Hey guys, can someone help me out?
Can someone upload a picture of the previous Eur/Usd London Open session with NY time Pivots?
I think something is wrong with mine and I need to check to make sure…

[FXTraderCro]

@Pippard

Hey guys, can someone help me out?
Can someone upload a picture of the previous Eur/Usd London Open session with NY time Pivots?
I think something is wrong with mine and I need to check to make sure…

Pivot 27710
S1 26740
S2 26240
S3 25270
R1 28210
R2 29180
R3 29690