THE JOY OF CANDLESTICK TRADING - a Learning Experience

[B]I will now continue with the trade above, looking at the short term KC chart.[/B]

Here is the 5 minute chart of this trade of AUD/JPY taken on Friday at about 2000 hours here in Western Australia. (subtract 8 hours to get GMT time).


By tymen1 at 2008-06-07

In this trade the KC method proved very worthwhile.

The vertical black line shows the open of the 4th candle and the vectors are shown on the blue Bollinger bands and the MACD.
These vectors are so close to being level that the resultant (pink) is considered level (see yellow oval).

Now the 4th candle opened at 69 and a level resultant means that the best short entry is on the middle Keltner band, which is at 76.

So a little waiting gives us this much better short entry of 76. Ah! ,what a benefit!! :slight_smile: :slight_smile:

[B]We now progress to the rest of the trading. [/B]

I actually prefer Steve Bigalow’s books and he also sells flash cards with major candlestick patterns which I always have nearby … a great way to learn the patterns :wink: His site is candlestickforum.

Another great site is litwick.com if you go to /glossary.html you can click on any link to see the candlestick pattern.

I am surprised that your main interest would be trading stocks, tymen. Having come from 5 years of equities & option trading to forex, you could not pay me to go back to trading equities … forex is SO much more straightforward and candles + forex is a match made in heaven, whereas candles on stock charts can still be disrupted if the CEO of the company sleeps with his secretary … or any one a million other events, which usually take place after hours! :smiley:

Candles + Forex 4 me 4 ever :slight_smile:

Thanks for all your patient hard work!

[B]There is a lot in this next 5 minute chart so we need to take it carefully [/B]>>>


By tymen1 at 2008-06-07

The short entry is a A (76) for 1 amount.

It becomes a [U]retrace first[/U] trade as the price action goes long to B (86). The trade is considered a medium risk trade as the upper Bollinger band is going down at the 3rd candle.

You, therefore, have the choice of setting the stop loss at 90, which is the top of the body of the red candle - or at high risk which is 3 pips above the top of the star at 01. The top of the star is 98.

The retrace points are basically found as follows :

[U]Starc going down[/U] - retrace comes near or tags the upper Starc.
[U]Starc going up [/U]- retrace goes thro Starc and wait some 3/4 candles as the candles walk the upper Starc band.

Exits are taken when the price action well and truely goes thro the [U]lower[/U] Starc band.

So…

At B(86), we enter the 2nd amount and the computer averages our short entry to 81.
It does not take long for the price action to go down and we hit C(58).
But if you are smart, you will see that the [U]bands are going down[/U] and the middle BB is going down also.
This means that the price will go down also and D(40) becomes the next solid exit point.

Even at point D the bands and middle BB are still going very much down, giving confidence that the price action will [U]continue to go down. [/U]There is an initial scare as 2 green candle appear after point D.

We continue to[U] toggle to the main chart[/U] because the price action has now well and truely passed thro the lower BB on the main chart. We cannot go too much further because the trade will get too long in the tooth.

E (21) is our next port of call. If we exit here then a re-entry of 2 amounts could be taken at retrace point F(48). If we did not exit here and looked at the bands going down then G (03) becomes an end point.

Lets look at some figures.

[U]The minimum profit is[/U]…Entry 1 amount at A, add 2nd amount at B, exit 1 amount at C, 2nd amount at D.

That is 81(av)-58 = 23 pips for 1st amount.
and…81 (av)-40 = 21 pips for 2nd amount.
Total = 44-spread (6) = [B]38 pips profit[/B].

[U]The maximum profit is[/U]…Entry 1 amount at A, add 2nd amount at B, [U]exit[/U] 1 amount at E, [U]add 2nd amount[/U] at F, [U]exit both amounts at G [/U].

That is 81-21 = 60 pips for 1st amount.
and…81-03 = 78 pips for 2nd amount.
and …48-03 = 45 pips for 1st amount re-entered on retrace at F.
Total = 183-spread (9) = [B]174 pips profit[/B].

Stop loss…At 102.01-entry at 101.76 = [B]25 pips for high risk.[/B]
Stop loss…At 101.90-entry at 101.76 = [B]14 pips for medium risk.[/B]

Risk/reward ratio :
Maximum…14:174 = 1:12. That is absolutely excellent.
Minimum…24:38 = 1:1.6 That is good.

A bit of work and you could have done better than the minimum.

[B]The massive profit potential will now lead us to discovering the new trading approach which will bring in huge pips in a very short timeframe!![/B]

You have actually asked a difficult question…

Yeah, I knew that. lol

I was doing research on another form of trading, that being of working solely with Keltner channels and using Keltner channel trading. I did a lot of testing with this method and it has the potential to make thousands of pips.

Interesting. I bet you had something mind blowing.

However, I found that exits were nearly impossible to predict and after receiving confirmation from FX Honourary member Dale Paterson, that he too found the exits impossible, I decided to abandon the work.

Why were the exits that hard? Was it because you could not tell if they would be good for only 5 pips and some good for more and that caused too much confusion? I apologize if I sound naive. I am a very curious person and love to learn for the sake of learning.

I have interest in no other method of trading - as far as I am concerned, candlesticks are the Rolls Royce of trading. I think that I have made that rather clear in the early parts of this thread.

I TOTALLY AGREE. Everything else seems like pure luck or random chance.

Therefore, the best way to find out what I know is to continue reading this thread.
Steve Nison’s books are the main source for all candlestick knowledge.

Already started on one of Nison’s books. And I am definitely not leaving this thread. :slight_smile:
Your hard work on this thread and the effort is GREATLY appreciated. I try not to post unless I have to just to prevent the thread from getting cluttered.

Tymen1,

I was thinking your lesson plan would make an excellent Power Point. I started a power point file as a proof of concept, I’d like to email it to you and see if you think it is worth the effort.

It is a very very rough draft, but I think it will get the idea across.

To BrianSNJ :

I can tell you that the method was very mouth watering with its incredible lucrative promise of profit of literally thousands of pips.
So I did research on the method to nearly exhaustion.

But money management was the problem.
A thousand pips profit on one trade, then 800 pips loss by hitting a stop loss on the next. This is how it went.

You could never tell when the trade was about to drop out - and when they did, wow! What a loss!
Sometimes 8 candles to a terrific profit, other times one candle profit followed by a surprise attack with the next one taking you to a loss.

In short, it was completely unpredictable, and as such, unsuitable for any but the very experienced trader.

The candlestick method herein is infinitely more stable, consistantly profitable, and works with much smaller stop losses.

A real pity for this Keltner system, but it just goes to show that not every system is a winner in the long run.

Yes, I like the idea.

Send me a private message in the spot on this website provided, then I will private message you back with my email address.

I am loathe to give my email address here publicly, because I will wind up with 10,0000 emails every day from now on!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

To LasVahGoose :

Yes, I like the idea.

Send me a private message in the spot on this website provided, then I will private message you back with my email address.

I am loathe to give my email address here publicly, because I will wind up with 10,0000 emails every day from now on!! :eek: :eek: :eek:

[B]I will now go back to material that will usher in a new trading approach. [/B]

Exercises will be included herein.

After this matter is finally settled, we can then look at other candlestick patterns. I am thinking of the engulfing pattern, but maybe readers would like something else, eg the 3 green soldiers.

In any case, a long pattern, not a short.

[B]Lets press on.[/B]

This sounds very intriguing … I am wondering if you’d be willing to post the rules for this method in a new thread & maybe ask for input from some of the experienced traders we have in this forum. Something like "Experienced Traders - can you fix this?"
Maybe if we have a lot of different minds & perspectives working on this there would be a way to tighten the stop-loss effectively so it would continue to be lucrative … but with risk contained.
:slight_smile:

[B]Have a look at the following 5 minute KC chart and study the notes below carefully. The main chart is not necessary for this investigation [/B]>>>


By tymen1 at 2008-06-07

[U]This chart has labels that need to be explained.[/U]

The Bollinger bands are shown in the usual blue and there is a Starc band shown in grey. The middle Starc is not shown or necessary.

There are lines across the chart beginning and ending in yellow circles.
These are trades.
They are [U]short trades[/U] - not long.

The blue filled circles are the beginning of trades.
The red filled circles mark the end of a trade where there is a loss - the trade went against us, that is, the price action went up.
The green filled circles mark the end of a trade where there has been a profit - the trade was in our favour, that is, the price action went down.

This chart shows the results of an evening star trade.


In the first trade of[U] 1 amount[/U], which was a “retrace first” there was a loss of 10 pips, then we decided to cut our losses and exit the trade.
So we have [B][U]-10 pips[/U][/B].
The Starc band goes up and we should really wait to see 3 candles pass thro the upper Starc band.
We can then approximate the retrace point.

Near this point, we enter short with [U]2 amounts[/U] and exit when the price action passes thro the bottom Starc band.
Here we get 2 amounts of +10 pips = [B][U]20 pips[/U][/B].

The Starc band travels level. A retrace point, by definition, will now tag or come near the top of the upper Starc band.

We see such a point, enter short with [U]2 amounts [/U]again, and exit when the price action passes thro the bottom Starc band.(plus some of the lower wick for good measure! :slight_smile: ).
Here we get 2 amounts of +20 pips = [B][U]40 pips[/U].[/B]

The Starc band continues to travel level and we see another potential retrace point. We enter short with [B]2 amounts[/B] again, and exit when the 2nd candle passes thro the bottom Starc band.

[U]Why the 2nd candle?[/U]
Well, the Starc is now going down steeply, and like the Bollinger bands, the price walks the lower Starc band. So we can afford to wait a little before exiting. This way we get our target of 30 pips.
Here we get 2 amounts of 30 pips = [B][U]60 pips[/U].[/B]

The grand total of this is 110 pips. Spreads are not included in the chart, but at 3 pips per trade = 9 pips.
Then our grand total is 101 pips, but more could have been made.
In any case, this is a huge amount for such a short timeframe trade. :slight_smile:

We are not too happy about the -10 pips in the beginning. Something will have to be done about this. Further posts will deal with this.

[B]We are heading towards an ultimate trading method for these candlesticks regardless of the length of the timeframe. :slight_smile: [/B]

[B]More tomorrow!![/B]

Hi Tymen,

I have just finished reading through the WHOLE thread and didn’t read your reply until a few minutes ago. Thanks for the reply and yes I understand… especially after reading your previous posts.

Thank you for the time and energy you put in to this, I am learning loads and hope to learn much much more.

After reading the whole thread everything just seems straight forward and no questions needed.

I have just setup my MT4 with the period_converter and will start demoing this candlestick strategy.

Thanks again

Thank you, 4xStar, for your continuing encouragement.

I was aware of Steve Bigalow, I am glad that you gain from his material.
Thank you also for that other website.

I find trading stocks here in Australia a lot safer, simply because they are not leveraged.
Their volatility is great too, so that I make more money on stocks than I do in forex for the same time spent.

On the other hand, leveraged instruments or CFDs such as forex do provide a more consistant income because you can trade both long and short.

I had a comprehensive discussion on this forum some time ago with Rhodytrader (John Forman) on the matter of forex versus stocktrading. I believe his views come from an American perspective whereas I am talking from an Australian perspective.
My views still stand today.

Here is the thread :

http://forums.babypips.com/newbie-island/8071-forex-vs-stocktrading.html

Hello all,
I thought I would share with you something I made for myself directly related to Tymen’s System in this thread.

This is a Word .doc file flashcard template. In the template you will find the 6 Japanese Candlestick patterns Tymen has based this system on. The candlestick pictures are in color. The pictures and the definitions come directly from the FXWORDS website. All I did was condense the it down to what was absolutely necessary to know. I deserve no credit or wrath! lol

This template is fully adjustable and can be changed, converted, reduced, enlarged and printed as you desire.

I printed this out on my color printer, cut to size with scissors, the pasted these items to sturdy 3 x 5 index cards with a glue stick. TA-DAH…flash cards.

2 things are a future issue -
1 - I would wait until Tymen can download this, review it and approve it for our use.
2 - Tymen said he was going to introduce more candle patterns to us. I will add those patterns to this template and post a ‘new improved’ version at that time.

I hope I have given back and I hope you all benefit. Passing along 10% of your successful trades would not be a bad idea either. :smiley: Just kidding.

TYMEN -
Relating to what you said earlier about your ‘other’ system that you could not figure out the exits because it would move unpredictably.

Was that because of NEWS events by any chance? I am sure you considered this, but had to double check.

I have been practicing your system and under demo there have been times when the news events moved a perfectly profitable trade the other way. I am trading 1am to 11am Eastern Standard Time to get the open of the London market and some overlapping market action to add to the trade strength. So I consult news calendar before I get into a trade to be sure I am not going to get hit. This has worked nicely for me. I am curious to know what you think.

Hi tymen1,

If you are starting on a new pattern, I will like to learn the engulfing pattern from you. It is a pattern which can go long or short. Maybe we can hear from other students and see what patterns they are interested in learning next.

BrianSNJ ; Thanks for the cards , I use something similar but have one of those digital picture frames. I got as a gift. I setup a SD card with stuff I want to learn and have it ticking over by my computor while I trade… This is great though to learn the patterns well. Again Thanks, Ken

SWEET IDEA!!! I am going to have to steal that one Kenneth! lol

Personally, I have no bias. All I can base my decision on is what I have read at FXWORDS on candlesticks. In that vein, I would recommend focusing on STRONG bullish/bearish patterns only. My logic is simple - if we look for the strongest signals, hopefully we are playing the odds in our favor as much as possible.

Several answers here at once.

Re : the Keltner system -
No, it had nothing to do with news events, the exits were totally erratic, there was not logic. I tried everything, even Fibonaci to produce a consistant exit - no luck.

Firstly, if you people need flash cards, etc for you recognition skills, thats fine.
Personally, I don’t need any of this, the patterns, complete with all the very fine details, are very clear in my mind.
There is an important detail missing about the engulfing pattern in that attachment. I will tell you about it when we get there.
Rapid recognition comes with practice.

News events - again, I say, no real problems - they must be going in my favour. They, of course could be the cause of the retracements.
The patterns and the news releases should really line up.
However, it is true that I do most of my trading on the sharemarket, where small price increases make big profits for me.

If something really does go wrong - well thats why we have a stop loss! :smiley:

I too, thought that the engulfing pattern would be a good one to continue with.