The MACD Contrarian. A medium term position trading system for the EURUSD

Yes, I went to one of my uni colleagues who is a stats professor in August last year. He showed that it was a train wreck waiting to happen. I shared that with Jordan and he dismissed it saying that in the 8 months they had traded the system it hadnt happened. I felt powerless to warn the rest of the group as there was somewhat of a religious fervour about it all but it was hard for me watching on as it all fell apart as it was bound to do. I see he has also stopped posting the Agape signals after losses of over 3000 pips although a friend of mine also previoiusly in the group got an email inviting him back saying that their new models had gained over 70% in a matter of months (didnt invite me back though!). Possible I suppose but I was shocked at his lack of statistical grasp. However as I said at the start of this thread he remains an important influence on me even though his models were flawed and I did get the MACD contrarian idea as a result so certainly not all bad. I sent this model to him as I thought he might find the ideas useful and he said he would get an automated backtest done by one of his associates but havent heard from him again. Sad really as I thought he was a genuine guy and I am left now not being so sure

1 Like

Tony

This is a nice simple system to add to the arsenal. However, not enough opportunities to make a living… I think you mentioned earlier this is just one of your methods. Would you be willing to discuss any ‘bread and butter’ systems you use for your main trading?

Andy

Hi Tony, and others who may be trying this. Definitely watch out for how the MACD settings work. I backtested this and can’t replicate your results. I believe them though! Looking at your current setups, I can tell this is because my MACD (Ninjatrader) is being calculated differently so I can’t really backtest it.

They are all described under alternative technical templates

Hi Tony,
The MACD crossed up last night and I missed the short trade(asleep). It’s in profit.

It immediately crossed down.

I’m wondering if I should try to enter a long if price breaks a previous bar’s high.

Thanks

Hi Bill. Yes it would have been close as Jordans signal indicated exactly zero. With the cross you would be in short and ignore the subsequent long. I think you should stick to this even though you didnt action the trade otherwise you are out of sync with the system and no idea whether this is good or bad


Bet you want to spit now Bill given the way its dived, I certainly do!!

I didnt trade this as have been away on a much needed holiday. For the sake of completeness this losing trade has been included in the results


1 Like

Tony, thanks for the continual updates. Do you think you could post an updated trade summary table for us?

Sure, posted as requested


In long on this break


Just noticed I should have circled the MACD bar 1 to the right

Didnt last long!


Short set up now in place


Entry taken


Stop now at break even


Make sure that you use commonsense in your trading. Our profit target is right on a major support which also figured last October. Clearly price action is likely to stalll and become volatile in this area. Active management of the position rather than passively waiting to get exactly to target may be needed. So far so good and with a free run its all sweet!


This long signal is ignored as we are in a short trade


This is a legitimate set up for a further short position


Stopped out break even. Now waiting for next entry on new low