The most boring trend-following plan

You can code something to alert you when an opportunity is ready and give it the go ahead to start placing the trades on your behalf. Have you considered doing this?

I found this to be critical! Especially for myself has a long-term trader.

As Iā€™m preparing to fund my first account Iā€™ve been doing a lot of thinking and analyzing of my demo over the past year or so.

itā€™s amazing to me how far down the rabbit hole Iā€™ve gone and how many twists and turns I have taken in terms of different indicators and strategies.

I started off basic and then itā€™s overthinkingā€¦ how can I get in earlier, how can I get out later, how can I catch the bottom and the top. Thatā€¦ Is my problem. I canā€™t.

As I think about trading it has come full circle to the understanding that I just want a piece of the action. I donā€™t need the whole thing from the very bottom to the very top. If I can consistently take a chunk of change out of The middle of a trend, that has success written all over it! Thatā€™s all I have to do.

What I have to come to terms with is it isnā€™t stereotypical trading. Itā€™s not exciting, not what you see in the movies, itā€™s not doubling,tripling account balances over night, itā€™s not a huge run of pips over the course of half a day.

It is actually something that wouldnā€™t be full-time, but something to become part of my lifestyle and my regular job as I trade the New York close.

So it all comes back to as @tommor frequently says ā€¦ Boring trend-following. Iā€™ll have to find my excitement elsewhere. While I collect pips on the side. Itā€™s like picking up change off of the street. :rofl::smile:

@tommor, your continual emphasis of the simple and the obvious has made an indelible impression on me.

Tx,
KC

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That is the most cheering post Iā€™ve ever received. Many thanks.

You are very welcome! :grinning:

Now I simply have to execute the simple/boring!

KC

@tommor I am not sure I got your entry / exit rules so I will try to break them down

  1. 50 EMA slope should be upward
  2. Day close should be lower than previous day close (i.e. retracement)
  3. SL previous day low + 1.5 x ATR 20
  4. Exit
    a. if 3 days consecutive close higher?
    b. ???

thanks in advance

Not exactly but I will summarise where I am as of today. Of course these things evolve in light of performance and changes in market conditions. I and many other traders have found things rather difficult the last few months so this is a summary of the best available tactics I am using this week (for uptrends: reverse for downtrends as appropriate) -

Set-up -

  1. 20EMA and 50EMA slopes both upwards
  2. 20EMA above the 50EMA

Entry -
by pre-set buy order at breach of todayā€™s high tomorrow if todayā€™s high was lower than yesterdayā€™s high
(if tomorrowā€™s high is lower than todayā€™s, drop the entry level to breach of tomorrowā€™s high on the next day, as long as the set-up conditions stills in place)

Initial stop-loss -
3 x ATR20 below entry
Risk -
2% of account capital

Manual exits -

  1. at third consecutive higher close
  2. at close of fifth consecutive day with higher high and higher low
  3. if set-up conditions fail
  4. at close below 20EMA
  5. close everything if unrealised gains from all open positions reach 10% of account capital - then take a day off.

If a trend is very consistent I would also exit at any close below the 3EMA.

Thereā€™s nothing magic about these numbers I have to admit, and if market conditions become more ā€œtrendingā€ I would like to run the winners longer and hopefully pyramid them also.

I still donā€™t understand these 2 points :slight_smile: do you happen to have a chart?

thanks for your time

If you donā€™t mind, arenā€™t you using tecnnical analysys? Exactly what Iā€™m doing, and I thought is good, not really that good lol.

Actually posting your trading journal could be a big help to new traders.

I rarely post what trades Iā€™m in and never post account records.

Iā€™m still long-term trend-following using daily charts, Iā€™ve cut down the parameters I use but have not added anything - Iā€™d expect many people picking up a strategy might do that. My primary indicator as to buy/sell short decisions is the bullish/bearish points each currency scores according to the 50EMA slope direction. This gives a result that very closely matches Dennisā€™s strong/weak analysis trading approach - personally I find my own approach just a little quicker - maybe Iā€™m more responsive to visual cues rather than numerical data.

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I have seen a lot of new traders who think that following their trading plan wonā€™t do any good for them. To them, I would like to say that forex trading is not going to be easy if you wonā€™t stick to your plan. It will help you judge your trading performance and improve your trading results.

Iā€™m a day trader, but looking to swing, so I may give it a try. Thanks, and yes it sounds boring, but hopefully effective

Whatā€™s the objective reason to belive that there are trends in the markets? Simply by looking at the chart and seeing higher highs or lower lows? Any other less subjective criterions?

Most boring equals most successful long term in my experience. I see people are already trying to apply it to the 5 minute chart. Stop it people. It will just wreck you. Boring daily candles for me. Find a trade once a week if Iā€™m lucky.

My base starting definition of an uptrend is to see both price and the 20EMA above the 50EMA. After that I note additional features to give a ā€œscoreā€ for each chart with the base trend so that I can prioritise which I want to get into most urgently.

Why 20EMA and 50 EMA define trend? Only I can imagine if sufficiently enough people believed in that mix of EMAs and started to buy or sell simultaneously that would induce a trend based on this combination of indicators. Without that this looks really baseless assumption.

The selection of MA durations has no relation to the behaviour of the foreign exchange market in my opinion. I donā€™t believe the market reacts or pays any attention to any MA, regardless of period. These two parameters in relation to each other and to the candlestick periods I use (D1) simply align best with what I want in my trading:

So if you want a lot of signals in a short period of time, reduce the values, if you want one signal a year, increase them. Iā€™d be surprised if one selection had a significantly greater profitability than the other.

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Boring is good as in if your looking for excitement in trading it can lead to impulsive trades .
Patience Pays in this game bar your scalping!

I like the scoring-system. I would like to know how many trades you take per day/week/month by trading that way please?

I use a selection only now from the criteria listed but the basis remains the same. I probably average about 15-20 trades a month. Itā€™s never as many as 30.

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