The opening of the hour candle...is this the final solution for forex wining?

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1

Hello every one , This is my first post, i really love baby pips :stuck_out_tongue:

i want to tell you that i am a forex beginner , but i have a strategy which i think of and inspired from one of the traders made it in some arabic forum

i will leave these strategy for experts here, to comment on it , try it , tweak it , and may be it is the final solution for all of us to win in forex :slight_smile:

The idea is so simple :

The GBP/Jpy pair , is known for its rapid movment up and down , if we look at its 1 hour chart and saw the candles, we will notice that :

from the opening price of the candle , the price goes up and down with avreage + 15 , - 15 pips in each candle , and these are the values of open , high , low in some random candles i chosen

open 	high	low

0 EST 238.13 238.36 237.97
1 EST 238.37 238.43 238.18
2 EST 238.33 238.62 238.23
3 EST 238.53 238.93 238.51
4 EST 238.7 238.77 238.16
5 EST 238.21 238.91 238.16
6 EST 238.68 238.83 238.56
7 EST 238.63 238.73 238.38

which means that whether you enter a postion for buy or sell at the open price of this candle , YOU WILL BE a WINNER IN BOTH CASES :eek:

ALL you have to do is to open a postion exactly at the open price of the candle ( buy or sell , doesnt matter ) , and as soon as you make a profit ( i am talking about small profits here ; like 5 - 10 pips in each postion) , close the postion immedetaly and wait for the begin of another candle .

by entering 7 or 8 candles each day , you can make 50 or 60 pip easily each day

The main person who introduced this idea in the arabic forum , says that he always wins like 90 % of the postions he enters by this way :slight_smile:

any way i put the idea between your hands and i hope we can ways to make it better and more profitable.

thanks ,

2

Looks like the spread might be a problem.

3

may be the spread will not be a big problem , if you choose a low spread broker , but lets consider the spread as big as 9 pips for example , i think in the worst cases , you can make a vary small profit , becasue the gbp/jpy always has variable candles , that move in up ad down alot :slight_smile:

4

looking at your randomly chosen candles you can yourself see that in most cases considering a 9 pip spread you might end up a loser…it is quite unlikely to get 10-15 pips after spread. If you have a 2-3 pip spread and go for about 5 pips now that would be another story :slight_smile:

You could change it to your own strategy by modifying it a bit. For example you may use the 4h chart and/or check the trend and use some tech indicators to have a more chance that you played the right direction.

I just checked the 4h chart and found that recently most candles covered the 9 pip spread and gave about 5-10 pip profit as well.

nice strategy though :slight_smile: keep it goming.

5

Even if the system is right 90% of the time, what happens during the other 10%. There will be times when you buy but the candle has no upper shadow i.e. open=high … price dropped from the moment the candle opened. You would have to have some sort of stop loss in place … and the existence of a stop loss would probably kill a great many of the other trades that would have been profitable, as price will often go in the opposite direction of your trade before reversing.

Or have I misunderstood?

6

no you didn’t misunderstood, that is the drawdown of this system… You never know where to put the stop-loss…but using some other indicators as well you might cut the losses a bit and go for the right direction…

7

… right lumesh. And as soon as we add indicators this becomes just another system based on indicators x, y and z, and loses the simplicity that was claimed!

8

What has been will be again, what has been done will be done again; there is nothing new under the sun. :slight_smile:

9

Hi Hisham2007,

Thanks for bringing the interesting strategy here.

Can you contact the trader in the Arabic forum to see if he can provide any more details on his trading like what is his broker spread and what the stop loss/take profit he personally uses? Maybe also you could translate some of the Arabic forum posts and show them here for us to look at and discuss.

If he is really successful winning 90% and no big losses offsetting his wins, it might be a subtle difference like using 4 hour vs 1 hour charts like lumesh says that can make the strategy really profitable. Or maybe time of day when the biggest moves happens.

In any case if you can contact that trader maybe he can give you some more crucial facts that makes the strategy really work well. Sometimes when a person is so adept he may forget to mention everything about his strategy because everything is so automatic for him.

11

Hey would love to hear more about this system…if there is a way to tell if the candle is likely to be bullish or bearish at the open, then I think this system is on to something… I would love to know more…and does anyone know if this is a possible prediction that can be made (namely, is it possible for one to tell if a candle will be bullish or bearish @ the open) I would really appreciate your input:)

12

You are on the right track!

I developed a FREE trading system called “THE BUY ZONE” based on the open of the markets and each hourly candle.

I have real time range statistics displayed that show just how many pips to expect the price to move.

MAY ALL YOUR DEALS BE ACCEPTED.

13

The white line is the OPEN.

The blue line is the long trigger.

The red line is the short trigger.

The green lines are the TP.

Any major move will cross either the blue or red line. The lines get you in the trade early rather than late.

14

Hi Rumpled One!

How has this strategy worked out for you? How successful has it been?

15

I have been using it for years and I am still in the game.

FREE MT4 INDICATORS HERE

NEVER LOSE AGAIN!!