The relationship between Actual and forecast-Fundamentals

Please what happens when forecast is equal to Actual…How does it impact a pair???

Yes, but the impact is not so huge as it happens when they differ substantially. Some market participants (especially large ones) would wait for the data to be released and only then start to act accordingly. That is why we can see a strong trend in the direction of the news which appears in a few hours or days after the release. The reaction on each fundamental event has three main stages:

  1. High volaility caused by actions of retail traders, bots and urgent execution of orders due to stop limits triggered.
  2. Consolidation, when the majority evaluates the news and make decisions.
  3. Trend movement when lareg market participants enter their positions based on the analysis.

So, the largest movements take place when forecast and actual data differ substantially, but even if they are equal, the trend movement will also take place.

Depends on the magnitude of surprise and how directly the news affect the demand for the currency. For example if NFP surprise was expected or less relevant to the current Fed policy, positive surprise can be ignored (if it is moderately positive). On the contrary some pieces of information about which the Fed expressed concerns can move the market significantly. The ability to understand impact and significance of each report come with time.

There is nothing like obvious in real market; sometimes you’ll have bullish and bearish movements as well!