Mmm… brain foggy. Very tired today. Closing all position.
NZDCHF 0.001 Short position opened at 0.65770 closed at 0.65620.
50EMA about to cross over 200EMA.
Shorted GBPCAD at 1.67870,
stop loss 1.68501,
1st Target 1.67699
2nd Target 1.67599
Shorted a 3rd GBPCAD at 1.67920
stop loss 1.68501
3rd target 1.67499
ALL 3 shorts GBPCAD position hit Target.
1st target 1.42399
2nd target 1.42299
3rd target 1.42199
4th target 1.42099
protective stop loss, 1.43101
Shorted a 5th 0.002 lot GBPJPY at 1.4268,
targets : 1.42599
Weaken state of bullish MACD. In lieu of FRIDAY, Trader’s who were Longs in profit may book profits and close their position before weekend. 50 EMA about to crossover 200EMA hints at lack of long momentum. A major pullback of GBPJPY on the horizon.
My fifth position hit target. Added another 0.002 lot Short at 142.570, Targets 142.499, stoploss 143.101
On a 10 Tick chart. There is a 5SMA crossover 10SMA showing a potential sell signal. MACD is showing weaken bullish MACD histogram bars. Overall, Momentum is bearish and it seem that a head and shoulder pattern is brewing.
Below is a screenshots of my current position.
Trade Review 23 AUG 2018
My short 0.006 lot GBPCAD had an average position at 1.67880 price level, hit target at 1.67590 (+29pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.68300 (-42pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.44 : 1 . I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
My Long 0.006 lot EURUSD had an average position at 1.15780 price level, was manually closed at 1.15670 (-11pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.15410 (-47pips). I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
My Long 0.003 lot NZDCHF had an average position at 0.65860 price level, was merged manually closed at 0.65810(-5pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.15750 (-11pips). I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
My short 0.002 lot NZDCHF had an average position at 0.65770 price level, was manually closed out at 0.65620 (+15pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.65900 (-13pips). Risk : Reward ratio 0.86 : 1 . I have highlighted the average positions level with red horizontal line on the chart above.
On a 10Tick Chart, Price just breakout below the lower border of a ascending channel. Smaller bullish histogram bars are observed as well, hinting at an impending reversal. Price is trading between 142.700 and 142.900 . A breakout below 142.700 will be a confirmation signal for the reversal.
I have consolidated my GBPJPY shorts into 3 position respectively.
Stop loss adjusted to 143.501 for all current position.
I have consolidated all my Shorts 0.008 lot GBPJPY at an average price of 142.590, I have decided to average it with a 0.01lot of GBPJPY, targetting 142.870. Current daily range is more than 100% of average daily range. According to my experience, a reversion of mean should take place. If it does not take place, i’m willing to cut losses at 142.501 price level. I do not feel tilted but felt that it is something that i must do according to my experience. Chances of a mean reversion is pretty high at this point in time. The only regret was being too greedy and that my existing position was abit too big ( will review later on and devise a safety plan for it.) Averaging my current 0.008 lot does seem to take on too much risk. It is a risk that i have to follow thru with my style of trading. Otherwise, my previous effort would have gone down the drain.
By my eyeballing analysis of daily overlapped level, i’m expecting a mean reversion level of 142.700 at least.
My 0.01 lot short GBPJPY managed to hit my desired target at 142.878. I was right about the mean reversion. I have an outstanding 0.008 lot short GBPJPY position, which i’m currently glued to the monitor and tracking it with a 1pip point and figure chart. Basically, i’m manually trailing this position. Hoping to maximise my exits at the best possible price. Everyone is asleep in my family. There is nobody to disturb me right now. I only have to fight the Zzzz monster. In case, i dozed off, i have adjusted my stop loss to 142.901, My desired target is at 142.584
Just adjusted stoploss from 142.901 to 142.851 .
Ok, I’m out! My stop just got taken out.
I have no more outstanding positions.
Trade Review 24 AUG 2018
My short 0.01 lot GBPJPY was opened at 143.120 price level, hit target at 142.880 (+24pips), Maximum drawdown reached 143.240 (-12pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 2 . I have highlighted the average positions level with red horizontal line on the chart above.
My Short 0.008 lot GBPJPY had an average position at 142.590 price level, was Stop out at 142.850 (-26pips), Maximum drawdown reached 143.240 (-65pips). I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
Drawdown Risk versus Reward ratio
2 : 1
2 : 1.7
1.5 : 1
1.5 : 1
1 : 5.96
1.44 : 1
0.86 : 1
(1+1.7+1+1+5.96+1+1)/7 = 1.80
My average RR ratio for this week is 1.47 : 1.80 ( 1 : 1.22 )
My profit factor for this week is 2.10
My winrate per opened position and closed by day end were ( 25/37 ) x 100 = 67.5% . An opened position were closed by end of day and consider as a single trade. Position that rollovered to the next day were consider as a new trade. Lot size were disregarded for each closed trade. Each closed trade of a merged position from multiple smaller lot size trade were considered as a single entity for easy calculation.
Averaging were adopted to mitigate risk from the perspective of getting in at a better average price level.
New Lesson learned this week.
Exotic pairs like USDTRY may have lower leverage offered by my broker. It is important to check them out prior to trading them as it affects my positions sizing. An oversized position may utilize too much margin and leave little room for drawdown.
Exotic pair have off market hours. It is important to check them out prior to trading them because there is a period of inaccessibility on a daily basis. That will affect my strategy in dealing them, for example, like determining whether to close the position before the next off market hour.
i realised that i was very impatient. By midweek, my position sizing have grown considerably from an initial 0.001lot per position entered. To me playing with 0.001lot just seem like an awfully waste of time. By week end, my largest overall position size at any one time was 0.018lot . That was utilising around 20% of my available margin ( my leverage is 1:200 ). So much for my plan to only increase position size after reaching a new watermark level. Actually, i was not specific enough at the beginning, i did not actually define what the watermark level was. I did not propose to myself a cap for maximum lot size utilised at any given point in time. In a nutshell, no money management rules were in place.
Watching my family from a distance, what more can i ask for. They are happy, i’m happy.
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