Alph you are shorting into a 4 hr uptrend, I hope you don’t hut yourself
The Ever Trade EMT VIPER
Yikes! 
Thanks for the reminder. My short USDJPY opened at 111.490, closed at 111.390 (+10pips), To begin with i wasn’t confident with this trade at all. Since you put it this way, i’m out… 
♂
use of leverage : 7%
I believe we have discussed context before. You have to know the context before taking a position. If you were counter trending this move you would still need the context before coming up with the premise
The Ever Contextual VIPER
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My premise was that USDJPY is a mixed bag of nuts. Original intention was a quick hit and run trade. Overall, still slightly bearish. Anyway, my main horses are still USDCAD & EURGBP. 
One more USDCAD closed at 1.31440 (+16pips), leaving my last USDCAD targetting 1.31099
Use of leverage : 5%
2345HR SGT
Closed my final USDCAD short at 1.31340 (+26pips)
Entered a Long EURGBP at 0.89173 to hedge my Short EURGBP at 0.88994 with a floating loss of -18pips.
0008HR SGT
Short 0.009 lot USDCHF at 0.97390, target 0.97299, stop loss 0.97901
Short 0.003 lot USDCHF at 0.97380, target 0.97199, stop loss 0.97901
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Trade Review 11 Sept 2018 Tuesday
My Total 0.009 lot Short USDCAD had an average price level at 1.31596, hit target at an average price level of 1.31395 (+20pips), Maximum drawdown reached 1.31745 (-14pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 1.4 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
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1117HR SGT
My last USDCHF was close at 0.97357 (+1pip), around 0930HR SGT.
1138HR SGT
closed long EURGBP at 0.89080( -8pips )
re - entered an additional short EURGBP at 0.89090.
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Trade Review 12 Sept 2018 Wednesday
My Total 0.012 lot Short USDCHF had an average price level at 0.97385, hit target at an average price level of 0.97309 (+7.6pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.97415 (-3pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 2.53 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
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1516HR SGT
Late lunch, only $5.25 
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Trade Review 12 Sept 2018 Wednesday
My Total 0.012 lot Short EURGBP had an average price level at 0.89061, hit target at an average price level of 0.88964 (+9.7pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.89371(-31pips). Risk : Reward ratio 3.19 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
My 0.004 lot Long EURGBP was opened at 0.89176 and closed at 0.89094 with a loss of -8pip. I have highlighted the positions level with red horizontal line on the chart above.
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Hey Dude, you are short in an upward bias range on the 1hr fractal
The Ever Watchful VIPER
Just Shorted another 0.015 lot EURJPY at 129.612, targets 129.499, stop loss 130.101
1400HR SGT
My 0.015 lot EURJPY short at 129.612 just hit target at 129.499 +11pips!!
1 down, and 3 more to go . . . 
1900HT SGT
Just change all my stop loss to buy stop order of 0.015 lot EURJPY at 130.101 instead. I have a feeling i will get hit this time round, but i will ride the wave. Let’s watch the show.
Hey Alph, once I get a moment we can discuss the trade and the context.
The Ever Charitable VIPER
2125HR SGT
Okay, i really got hit. Darn it, should have trusted my instinct. I was at work earlier, can’t do much during work time. Anyway, my position are hedged. I will attempt to make both position end up on a positive note…
I just merged all my shorts into one big 0.015 lot EURJPY at 129.459, and is hedged with my Long 0.015 lot EURJPY at 130.101, with a floating loss of 65.1pips
I’m not accepting defeat just yet.
You should have closed this out as soon as it moved against you, you were on the wrong side from the beginning, also “hedging” only makes sense if you are using options, or possibly another pair that has a negative correlation to the pair you are trading, even at this, writing an option is the professional way of doing this.
It is not about defeat, it is about preserving capital, at this point you have lost a large chunk, trying to regain it, may be impossible at this point. Take the hit, learn from the mistake and move on. And do not engage in revenge trading. Take time to analyze what happened and how to avoid it in the future.
You said you were doing this for your family, if this is the case you need to admit the mistake, find the weakness, work on it and then move forward.
The Ever Now Becoming A Coach VIPER
3 Likes
Timeline summary of my trades after i got hedged :
I have a Merged Short 0.015 lot EURJPY at price129.460, that was hedged with a long 0.015 lot EURJPY at price 130.100, with a floating loss of - 65pips.
At price 130.570, my Long EURJPY was closed with a profit of +47pips.
Thereafter, my Short EURJPY was unhedged, and continue to drawdown up to a high price level of 130.820. Although maximum drawdown reached a maximum of -136pips. Effective drawdown was -136 + 47 = - 89pips .
At price 130.710 i shorted another 0.015 lot of EURJPY and closed at 130.599, profited +11.1pips, stop loss was set at 130.901 for this trade. Use of leverage reach a record high of 40%.
At the moment i have, another 0.015 lot EURJPY shorted at 130.630, targets 130.299, stop loss 131.301. Current use of leverage is at 28%
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Trade Review 13 Sept 2018 Thursday
My 0.015 lot Short EURJPY at 129.612, hit target at price level 129.498 (+11.4pips), Maximum drawdown reached 0.89371(-14pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.22 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with red horizontal line on the chart above.
My 0.015 lot Short EURJPY at 130.710, hit target at price level 130.599 (+11.1pips), Maximum drawdown reached 130.820(-15.3 pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.37 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
My 0.015 lot Long EURJPY at 130.108, hit target at price level 130.568 (+46pips), Maximum drawdown reached 130.050(-.5.8 pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1 : 7.93 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
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Yup, I absolutely agree with this, indeed i was on the wrong side, I knew it. However, i decided to stick to my plan and have faith with my predictive model improvised from Dennis’s strong weak pairing. If things went wrong, I was prepared to cut loss at 130.101, initially .
I disagree with this, the purpose of my hedge was to mitigate risk, so that i could drawdown further and effectively reduce my drawdown risk. 130.101 was my pre-determined major resistance level.
At 1900HR SGT, i knew something was wrong. I changed my stop loss to buy stop order instead. It made perfect sense to me. I know what i’m doing. I already had plans to hedge if my 130.101 level got taken out. I was hoping it won’t, but it did. My instinct was right after all.
I agree with this. I must admit, that i did make a mistake here. That was my initial lot size were simply too big. Apparently, 3 set of 0.015 lot EURJPY can use up to 40% of my available margin. And that was my main mistake here.
It may look like i’m doing revenge trading. But i assure you, i’m not. Every one of my moves and plays were deliberate after careful introspection and analysis. I did think of the worst case scenario during my plays. That was if market decided to go crazy and becomes a full fledged black swan event. My account will become $400. During my trading after my position was hedged. There was no turning back for me. It was too late to hold back. I have to proceed with my moves. Otherwise, i’m not executing my strategy. If only my initial lot sizes had been much smaller by 3 times less. Then there wouldn’t be any stress or issue at all. Isn’t it?
Thanks a lot for the timely, considerate and camaraderie reminder and support. I have made a preliminary review of my trades and finally see what’s wrong with my style of trading. I’m too greedy, i want my account to grow fast, psychologically i find it hard to accept a one step forward , two step back situation.
I seriously need to downsize my position size, if i intent to execute such style of trading again. I really appreciate your criticism. Keep the Viper bite coming, I deserve it.
2 Likes
I don’t want to be seen as taking sides here, but I also think that this kind of hedging is not generally a good idea. It is often done as a means of not accepting the loss and turning it into an limbo situation that “I will trade out of when I’ve had time to think about it and then unwind it either bit by bit or in one go and recover the loss”.
But either way, it has a negative effect in that it is tying and forcing one’s time and concentration onto a position that one might not otherwise want to look at. It means that you have to search for a situation in that particular pair’s price movement whether you want to or not, whereas without the hedge you are free to look at whatever you wish for your next trade.
Presumably you would apply the same criteria when deciding to open the hedge as you would for a new position, so in reality there is no difference. The loss is there whether it is locked in with a hedge or realised.
I think a healthy approach with any short term trade is to decide upfront where you will exit it both when it is in profit and when it goes wrong. Surely risk management takes care of the net overall positive expectancy?
Having said that, I do see a usefulness in temporarily hedging longer term position trades if one wants to retain the original entry position instead of closing and re-entering. But that has its own risk since the hedge will always be against the underlying trend and prone to sudden reversions to the trend direction, leaving the hedge in a minus…and what then if the hedge loss is realised and then the main position reverses yet again…
These things just create unnecessary additional stress and attention when trading should be kept as clear-cut, focused and crisp as possible - but maybe that is just me!
Just some thoughts here. The main thing is that one is fully aware of what one is doing and why! 
4 Likes
There is some truth in this, to be frank, i felt that a lot of times. Like i said, i’m working on my predictive model improvised from Dennis’s Strong Weak pairing. Nothing work’s all the time. If my method fail on me, then so be it. Just calculated my lot size and my stop loss, if it gets taken out, my account will drop to $4xx. If that happens i just have to start from scratch, reflect on this lesson of oversized position and keep moving forward. I did my best in terms of a few short successful scalp to further mitigate risk, collected previous Weekly and Daily ATR, and i’m taking a calculated risk based on that.
I agree with you on that. I did turn an intra-day trade into a position trade, but i don’t think that’s a mistake. My mistake here is my over sized position, which due to my greed, the initial sizing was too large. Lack of position sizing pre trade consideration. 
Risky aggressive style, when i lose, i lose big, but with some Good Luck, risk worth taking?
Hey M, nannee, naneee, noo, noo, you already chose my side hahahahahaha. You know what that means I win again wooo hooo. Just kidding.
The Ever Winning VIPER
Hey Alph, now that is funny 
The Ever Chortling VIPER
Not in my trading scenario - ever!!
OK, you might be able to stand the psychological stress of losing big and giving back a lot of hard-earned profit, but it also means a long struggle ahead to recoup the damage before you can once again start to move forward! Why would one ever want to risk that?
Surely the aim of trading is to progress in incremental steps towards a goal. And that means constantly focusing on that terribly boring topic - risk/money management.
Like that ancient “wisdom” hints at:
“There are old traders and there are bold traders…but there are no old, bold traders”
But you have already stated that you recognised the error here and that is great! and that is the second most important thing here…(the first always being that one still has an account! )
4 Likes
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Trade Review 14/15 Sept 2018 Friday
My 0.015 lot Short EURJPY at 130.633, hit target at price level 130.284 (+34.9pips), Maximum drawdown reached 131.110(-47.7pips). Risk : Reward ratio 1.34 : 1 , I have highlighted the average positions level with blue horizontal line on the chart above.
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0038HR SGT
I have one outstanding 0.015 lot EURJPY merged at 129.460, tagets 129.450 (break even level), Stop loss 131.101
0051HR SGT
Just converted 0.015 EURJPY stop loss at 131.101 to buy stop order at 131.101 .
0314HR SGT
Just split the buy stop order into 2.
One 0.007 lot EURJPY at 130.801
One 0.008 lot EURJPY at 131.101
(Just a note : my over the weekend leverage reduce from 1 : 200 to 1 : 60 )
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Drawdown Risk versus Reward ratio
My average RR ratio for this week is 1 : 1.62
1st Week RR, 1 : 1.22
2nd Week RR, 1 : 1.73
3rd Week RR , 2.95 : 1
4th Week RR, 1 : 1.62
(1+1+2.95+1)/4 = 1.48
(1.22 + 1.73 + 1+1.62) = 1.39
My average RR ratio for 4 weeks is 1.48 : 1.39 (1.06 : 1)
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My profit factor for this week is 1.59 (I fail to achieve 2.0, bad trading performance again 
)
(2.1 + 2.9 +1.28 +1.59) / 4 = 1.96
My average profit factor for 4 weeks is 1.96
My winrate per opened position and closed by day end were ( 16/20 ) x 100 = 80% . An opened position were closed by end of day and consider as a single trade. Position that rollovered to the next day were consider as a new trade. Lot size were disregarded for each closed trade. Each closed trade of a merged position from multiple smaller lot size trade were considered as a single entity for easy calculation.
1st week winrate : 67.5%
2nd week winrate : 85.2%
3rd week winrate : 48%
4th week winrate : 80%
4 weeks average winrate = (67.5 + 85.2 + 48 + 80) / 4 = 70.18%
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My Maximum drawdown to date is about 22.1%, which occurred with my ongoing Short EURJPY trade.
At present, i have an ongoing positional trade. A short EURJPY opened at 129.460, Maximum drawdown reached 131.105 . Position was hedged from 130.100 to 130.570, effective maximum drawdown was
[ -129.460 + 131.105 = - 164.5 pips,
130.570 - 130.100 = + 47 pips,
-164.5 + 46 = - 117.5 pips ]
Value of 117.5 pips ≈ (117.7/7.3) x $9.78 = $157.41
( 157.41 / 712.25 ) x 100% = 22.1%
Calculations were base of Wednesday highest current balance $712.25
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New Lesson learned this week.
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On Monday, i missed the boat by an inch. I had a GBPUSD trade that would have hit the jackpot. If i had not closed it just before the US session open. I need to develop more faith with my trend determination analysis. I’m one that is equipped with knowledge of hedging and averaging, thus i should not have feared the drawdown.
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In early Thursday, my Short EURJPY was loosely entered. Even though technically, i knew i shorted somewhat early, i was adamant to see it through. I was overconfident of being able to handle the situation, if the ■■■■ hits the fan. It was unnecessary imprudent bravado. I need to develop patience for more bull’s eye Entry point.
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Furthermore, there was a lack of foresight and precontrived plan for my Short EURJPY trade. The initial position sizing was too big. Use of leverage hit a high of 40%. Consequently, exorbitant tension mounted during my Thursday and Friday’s trading. It could have been prevented, if only i had curbed my position sizing intemperance.
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Artist at work
Home cooked dinner is the best!
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Dinner by the harbour
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4 Likes
