The Technical Trader... Join my Journey

[Stephen.W]

Cable - 212 Pips Profit in 48 Hours

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford, I am here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and results of last week’s predictions, opening the floor to feedback, open conversation and opinions… I look forward to engaging with you all.

I’d like to inform you of how my week in the FX market has been - but firstly, let me briefly update you on my USDCAD technical analysis from Monday 18th March.

USDCAD Daily -

Looking from the Daily chart we’ve seen some side-ways progression this week with USDCAD, with some of this ranging movement coming from fundamental shifts between the dollar and its Canadian counterpart. On Wednesday 20th March, Canada released their 2019 budget and a hawkish outlook for the remainder of the year pushing USDCAD back down to test the 0.618 Fib retracement level, yet we still had price struggling to break through the dynamic resistance of the 50ema. Ultimately the CAD strength was short lived as the dollar index remained strong bouncing off a key support/resistance zone around 95.75 - not allowing USDCAD to fall any further. Since Wednesday we have seen the dollar strengthen day to day with my belief from a technical standpoint that this is going to continue for the foreseeable until we reach the previous high of the DXY around 97.7 and USDCAD previous high of 1.36641, watch this space and I’ll be sure to keep you posted.

Moving onto my week in the markets, here’s a breakdown of my cable trade (GBPUSD) that I entered on Tuesday 19th March…

GBPUSD Weekly -

First and foremost from a longer-term outlook, you can see from the weekly chart that price is now in the process of recovering from its bear market that ran from the April 2018 high of 1.436 down to the December 2018 low of 1.2385. Having reached and rejected this area that was last seen in April 2017, the price is now in the process of forming an inverse head and shoulder pattern – with the pound now beginning to find strength again it will be interesting to see if the bulls can take price back to last year’s April high of 1.436.

GBPUSD Daily -

However from a top-down approach moving onto the Daily chart, as much as I’m a huge fan of my technical analysis, I’m sure you may have heard of this monotonous situation that’s been hitting our headlines on a day to day basis called… ‘Brexit’ – and with the sheer uncertainty and instability of this government of ours, the pound has been bouncing unpredictably between the 1.3 – 1.33 level for the past month giving us no real solid confirmation of where the direction of this pair will head next. Now even though I’m usually an intraday trader mainly from the 1 hour chart, the daily time-frame gave me some signals that we may be seeing some dollar strength and pound weakness this week. With the DXY (dollar index) bouncing off quite a solid weekly trend-line that’s been rejecting price since May 2018 - and at the same time cable also forming a double top on the daily chart along with bearish divergence on the RSI, this gave me the signal that price may now be ready to head back down to its previous low and bottom of the ascending trend-line.

GBPUSD 4 Hour -

After forming its daily double top, my entry for this trade came on Tuesday morning from the 4 hour TF after the price had tried to break the 1.33 level for the third time and finally closed as a bearish pin bar - Thus meeting my strategy criteria and confirming to me that this trade was ready for entry. Following on from my short position, with my stop loss placed tightly above the wick of the pin and 1.33 resistance zone - price began to fall in my favour and 48 hours later hit my take profit level at 1.304 for 212 pips giving me a 3:1 risk/reward ratio and total profit of 3.4%.

Thanks for taking the time to read this week’s update article and feel free to drop a comment if you managed to catch this same trade or any other movements in the FX market this week.

****Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not be taken as financial advice.****

[Wightpips]

Thanks Stephen - I liked that, clear charts, concise description and for me Daily/Weekly makes a lot of sense as that’s as low as I go.
As a rank amateur I am staying out of anything with GBP in it until… well who knows when the HOC will get it’s act together.
I got in on the USD/CAD, will wait for a close above 1.345 ish before scaling in - will be happy if it does go all the way up to 1.366
Thanks for posting the analysis.

[Stephen.W]

Thanks Wightpips, feedback is much appreciated! It’s definitely an uncertain time when it comes to what the pound may do next, be sure to keep me posted with your USDCAD trade and look out for my future updates on Forex set-ups… Always good to have an open floor for discussions.

[smagombe]

This is wonderful, I will be closely following this thread for updates and comments as well. I had also been watching that USDCAD right from the moment it broke above the neckline tho I missed the entry as my buy limit was lower than 61.8% but my target was the same as yours.
As for GBPUSD however much I would to stay away from it, am finding it difficult as it’s a good pair to trade with very good average pips daily. This week I managed to sell it from 1.31950 for a profit of over 280pips. Took profit and now just watching for retracements in the USD

[Stephen.W]

The Great Brexit Pound… Buy or Sell?

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford, I am here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and results of last week’s predictions, opening the floor to feedback, open conversation and opinions. I look forward to engaging with you all.

As Q1 comes to a close, I’d like to share with you a pound trade I entered and closed this week along with an update on my USDCAD forecast.

Firstly USDCAD

source:uk.tradingview.com

From the daily chart, we can see price has started moving in the direction of my initial forecast and (at the time of writing this) moving closer to my ‘profit target 1’ level of 1.346. I’m interested to see how price reacts this level; will we see a double top formation where price rejects and falls back down towards the 0.5 Fib level around 1.33? Or, will we see price break through this resistance level, pullback to re-test the resistance now turned support and continue to head towards my ‘profit target 2’ level of 1.365? I’m intrigued to see how this pans out over the next few weeks and will be sure to keep you posted as always.

GBPCAD 4 Hour chart

source:uk.tradingview.com

Moving onto my recent GBPCAD trade, since mid-Feb you can see in the chart above that price has been reacting with my ascending trendline - I have highlighted various support areas where price has rejected and continued to rise. As we moved into March, the bullish market started to flatten, and the pair ranged between the 1.744 support level and 1.779 resistance level. With the trendline continuing to support price action, around the 21st March price broke through and pulled back to re-test the underside of the trendline before continuing to fall to the 1.744 support level. At this level, price also found dynamic resistance with the 200EMA and began the next bull run, which caused the pair to break back through the ascending trendline to the upside, only to once again reject the 1.779 resistance level, giving further confirmation of this support and resistance ‘range’ being respected. I’ll now move down into the 1 hour timeframe giving a clearer picture of my entry & exit.

GBPCAD 1 Hour chart

source:uk.tradingview.com

Looking at the 1 hour chart you can see where my entry was placed along with where I exited. My entry for this trade came after price tried to once again break back through the ascending trendline but struggled with the dynamic resistance of the 200EMA, along with the support of the trendline itself. Once price formed a bullish pin / doji bar and my strategy criteria being met, I placed my long position with a tight stop loss just below the pin bar. Unlucky for me as you can see - my initial profit target was missed by just 3 pips! – This would have been the perfect intraday trade for my style, closing out 3 hours later for 1.4% profit! However, it wasn’t until 24 hours later that price finally headed in my favour again and I manually closed out the trade for 1.4% profit, 30 minutes before Parliament were due to vote on their indictive motion. As you can see from the chart my exit was pretty much bang on, as less than 60 minutes later the market tanked back down towards the 1.744 floor support zone.

Thanks for taking the time to read through today’s article, I look forward to your thoughts and as ever would be great to hear if any of you have also managed to catch some good GBP moves this week?

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not be taken as financial advice.

[Wightpips]

@Stephen.W hope you did better on your USD/CAD than I did - 28th - great on its way back up… 29th just caught the SL for BE grr… Ah well always another trade

[Stephen.W]

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford, I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis, predictions and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback, conversation and opinions… I look forward to engaging with you all.

As Q2 of 2019 opens, I’d like to share with you my technical analysis and forecast on the ‘safe haven’ commodity of Gold (XAUUSD).

Weekly -

(source: uk.tradingview.com)

Starting from the 2015 swing low of $1047, I have displayed each yearly high and low on the chart, progressing all the way up to this year’s high (so far) of $1346. You can see price has been fluctuating within a wedge style formation over the past 3-4 years, signaling from this year’s high rejection of $1346, that we could technically expect price to now head back down towards the bottom of the wedge formation around $1221.

Or, could we see price react to the $1241 support/resistance zone that this market has respected over the past few years? As I move down to the daily chart I’ll breakdown further how we could see Gold move over the coming months…

Daily -

(source: uk.tradingview.com)

At a closer glance, I’ve also spotted a potential head and shoulder pattern that has been forming since the end of last year (2018), with price now (at the time of writing) heading down from the right shoulder towards the neckline. Technically speaking; we’d expect the market to continue falling towards the bottom of the wedge - could we see price reach $1221? Or even as low as $1205? Maybe the market will struggle to fall that far during the remainder of 2019… could we see a rejection at the support/resistance zone of $1241 - where price action has been well respected over the past few years and then proceed to rise? I do believe we will see some sort of reaction around these levels before price begins to head back up towards the top of the wedge, will we see price reach $1345 before the end of 2019?

4 Hour –

(source: uk.tradingview.com)

Moving down for an intraday entry point – I’d wait a break of the neckline zone, then for price to pullback and re-test the underside of the neckline, once strategy criteria being met - I’d enter my short position and aim for my profit target areas. If price was to reach profit target 1 and begin to show signs of a trend reversal, I’d look to close out of my short position and await on further confirmation to potentially enter this market long and ride the price action back up to the towards to the top of the wedge.

As always, I’ll be sure to keep you up to date with how this market moves over the coming weeks/months, it’d also be great to hear your thoughts, predictions and/or trades you have taken within this ‘safe haven’ commodity.

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not be taken as financial advice.

[rajsingh18]

Great spot and analysis. I will keep an eye on this too.

[PerdanaFX]

same here. will keep my eyes locked on this thread

[Stephen.W]

Appreciated! Feel free to share your thoughts too

[Npetit]

I trade the 1 hr TF, can I use your 4hr analysis to boil down my entry on the 1hr TF?

[Stephen.W]

Sure Npetit, i also trade from the hourly chart, i do like to also use the daily & 4 Hour TF for confirmation before entering my trades.

[Npetit]

sweeeet! thank you Stephen.

[Stephen.W]

EURJPY: Technical Analysis Breakdown

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback, conversation and opinions. I look forward to engaging with you all.

Today I’d like to share with you a GBPCHF trade taken last week, along with a market breakdown on EURJPY from an intraday perspective rather than a longer-term swing trading point of view.

GBPCHF: 1 Hour chart –

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Firstly, here is a breakdown of my GBPCHF position taken last week - this trade fulfilled my double top formation strategy that I like to use when a market is unable to break through a previous high/resistance zone and create a new higher high. Along with bearish divergence on the RSI indicator, price action signalled to me that the market is going to now revert back to the downside. Upon strategy criteria being met and entering my short position; I was in this trade for around 36 hours, with the market pulling back to hit my stop loss – closing me out with 1% profit and just under 2:1 risk/reward ratio.

Moving onto my EURJPY market breakdown…

Daily -

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Briefly looking at the daily chart to gather some key levels of support and resistance, we can see that price has been forming within a descending channel since the beginning of March, the peak at 127.5 and the low at 123.65. It was around this trough where price had also formed a double bottom and was unable to break and close below the underside of the descending trendline. For many traders out there (including myself) this would have confirmed that we may be prepping to see price action head back up towards the top of the channel. I’ll move down to the 4 hour chart and display how I would have entered this trade as well as how we could see price action form moving forward.

4 Hour -

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Upon my strategy criteria being met I would have placed a tight stop underneath the bullish pin bar that formed on the 28th March. My profit target for this trade would be the top of the channel, giving me a 3:1 risk/reward ratio and around 160pips profit. At the time of writing this; the market is already 138 pips into the bullish move and I’d easily be risk free at this stage along with having at least 1% locked in - which is an optimum situation to be in for any trader out there! Following an upside break of the 0.618 Fib level I’d also look to move my stop loss up and lock in 2% on this trade, leaving me in an ideal situation; I’d be happy for the market to continue rising and hit my take profit of 3% - or content with price finding resistance, pulling back and closing me out at 2% profit… As you can imagine, either outcome really isn’t too shabby!

What I’m now intrigued to see, is where the market will move upon hitting the top of the channel trendline. Could we see price show no mercy and break straight through the upper trendline? Or will we see price reject this area and set itself up to head back down towards the bottom of the channel? I have drawn in a couple of possible Scenarios we may see over the next week or so.

Scenario A – I have drawn in the possibility of price breaking straight through the upside of the channel trendline, to then reject and pullback from the previous swing high zone of 126.6, re-test the descending channel trendline (turning support into resistance) and then for price to continue in its bull run. Possibly up to the previous channel peak level of 127.5?

Scenario B – In this scenario, we see a rejection of the upper channel trendline (this scenario could also play out very similar even if price doesn’t quite reach the top of the channel but rejects the 0.618 Fib level I have drawn in). Upon a rejection, I’d expect price to then fall back down and fluctuate between key Fib levels (such as the 0.236 & 0.382 levels you can see displayed), before continuing to fall to the bottom of the descending channel. If so, will we see the price as low as 123 over the coming weeks?

As always, I look forward to your thoughts…

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.

[Npetit]

Hello Mr.Stephen, how do i get to follow you and learn more and or pick your brain on how to be a consistent and profitable trader.
thank you in advance.

[Stephen.W]

Hi Npetit, thanks for your enquiry! Currently your best bet would be to follow my weekly posts on here, stayed tuned to this thread! And if you have any direct messages for me, feel free to drop me a DM.

[Stephen.W]

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback, conversation and opinions. I look forward to engaging with you all.

This week I’d like to share a trade taken last week on GBPCHF, along with my technical analysis review of GBPUSD…

GBPCHF - Trade breakdown.

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

This trade I entered last week, actually came after a missed entry opportunity that had formed the day prior with a Double Bottom formation, along with an inside bar confirmation candle close. As this was a position my strategy caters for, instead of just jumping into the market and going long, I wanted to see the market pullback and form confirmation before placing my entry to the buy side. It was after this pullback where price formed an engulfing candle finish that prepped me for my entry (along with other strategy criteria having been met). My profit target for this trade was originally placed at the previous swing high resistance level - 1.316. The market failed to reach this previous zone and began to make lower high after lower high. It was now the case of being patient, trusting my trade execution and remaining calm whilst the market decided where it was heading next. Price then tried to break the resistance now turned support zone of 1.308 a good few times but was unable to break below and close, giving me confidence that the market will continue to move in my favour. Price eventually did continue in my favour but not quite enough as I wasn’t content with holding this position over the weekend, therefore I decided to take profit before the FX market came to a close on Friday evening. We can actually see that the market (at the time of writing this) is now well on its way again to my original take profit level around 1.316. Overall, a win is a win and I was more than satisfied with my 60 pip move, equal to 0.5% profit.

Moving onto my Cable (GBPUSD) Technical Analysis review -

GBPUSD - Daily

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Looking at the Daily chart year on year, we can see a big 1,200 pip difference between where we were this time last year compared to now. With price back in April 2018 sitting around 1.437 and as of the time of writing this - sitting around 1.307. Nothing comes as a real shock or surprise due to the past 12 months (and longer) being so unstable as our House of Commons continues to pull the bones of this country from limb to limb with the smell of Brexit looming in the air. What’s to come within this pair over the next 12 months will be a very intriguing sight of events, as we are still yet to have a finalised outcome of this whole Brexit ordeal.

As always I’ll be looking to analyse this pair from a technical standpoint and will dive a little deeper to see where I’d be looking to take this pair from an intraday perspective. As we can see price has begun fluctuating since Nov/Dec last year within an ascending channel, will price continue to honour this channel formation? Or will we see price action break out? Let’s take a look at some possibilities.

GBPUSD - 4 Hour

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Here we have a clearer view of how price has been moving since the beginning of the year (2019), forming nicely within this ascending channel. Move towards the middle of Feb and you can see price action has been ranging within the 1.300 and 1.330 zone - with price really finding a ceiling around 1.335; as the market tried twice to break through and close above but was unable to form a new higher high; equating in a Double Top pattern formation (a great signal for traders who utilise Double Top reversal strategies!). As price continued to range, we can see many failed attempts of the market trying to break and close below the 1.3 level. Is this too low for the pound? Is this a sign of stronger things to come? Or will Brexit continue to send the pound on a never-ending rollercoaster of uncertainty?! I believe the latter seems most appropriate!

GBPUSD - 4 Hour

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

As we get closer to the action on the 4 Hour Chart - we have a few possibilities that could pan out. My bias is towards GBP strength, I would have actually entered this market long - off of its last bounce from the bottom the ascending channel trendline that occurred around 5 April. From entering here, I’d still be aiming to take profit at the previous resistance turned support area of 1.32. But I digress, let us get back to how the market may move over the coming days/weeks:

In Scenario A - I have pound strength, breaking through its previous resistance zone, consolidate & pullback for a period, before continuing to rise all the way back up to the previous swing high Double Top zone of 1.335.

In Scenario B - If the price is unable to continue strengthening amongst the Brexit uncertainty, we could see the market proceed to break out the bottom of the ascending channel back down to the 1.3 floor zone. Can the price break that level? Or will we once again see another trendline rejection and see the price head back up towards the previous swing high level of 1.335?

As previously mentioned my bias is towards GBP strength, I feel the market is now looking to recover some of the 1,200 Pips it has lost over the course of the past 12months, but how much can it recover? And how soon?

I look forward to your thoughts…

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.

[JackSherwin]

Hi Stephen, another great set of analysis on a popular pair. I think we may see a final bounce on the 1.3 level to make the move up to 1.33 over the next few weeks. I hope this goes well for you, keep us updated.

[Stephen.W]

Stephen W

I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.

Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and prove the naysayers wrong. Come and join my journey as I release my weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback, conversation and opinions. I look forward to engaging with you all.

As Easter weekend approaches, I’d like to share my Technical Analysis review of USDCHF.

USDCHF – Weekly

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

Looking at the weekly timeframe, the price has been forming within an ambiguous rising wedge since mid-2017, as some may look at it as an ascending triangle pattern with the resistance zone for the triangle being around the 1.01 level. Whichever you decide is for you, it’s subjective and there isn’t one correct answer, that is the beauty of this game! Either way, for me this time-frame is too high to find an entry, so I’ll move closer to see what options we may have to enter this market over the coming days/weeks.

USDCHF – Daily

(source:uk.tradingview.com)

At a closer glance on the daily chart, it seems as though the price could be forming a potential head and shoulders pattern since the beginning of 2019. With price action currently in the midst of forming the right shoulder, this would usually signal to us (if confirmation occurs) that we are soon to be heading back down to the bottom of the wedge or furthermore; with this head and shoulders pattern coming into fruition – technically we may be prepping for a downside break of the wedge as far as the previous swing low area of 0.975.

I have drawn in 2 Scenario’s, both for the right shoulder formation we are currently in, but with different overall outcomes.

Scenario A – We see price action form a right shoulder, head back down to the neckline and proceed to break through to the underside of the wedge. From here I’d expect a pullback, re-test the underside of the support now turned resistance trendline, before falling back down to the previous swing low and profit target area of 0.975.

Scenario B – Similar situation where we have the right shoulder having been formed but instead of price action breaking through the underside of the trendline, we see a rejection and push back up to the previous high/top of the wedge, around the 1.01 resistance zone.

I’m sure this pair will offer various trading opportunities over the coming days and weeks, let’s see if we can catch any!

As always, I thank you for your time today and look forward to your thoughts.

Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.

[JackSherwin]

Great set up by the looks of it. The resistance trendline and 1.01 zone should hold good for a short. Ill keep an eye out for this.