Hi@Stephen. W
I just want to ask what do you think of the USD core retail sale news that is going to happen on Wednesday, what will be the reaction of the dollar after a statement realise
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Hi @Adam123_RSA that’s a great question, the thing is no one knows where the market will head after it’s release. The consensus is Bearish, however that doesn’t mean the dollar will fall. What would be recommended is to not trade the dollar (or close an open dollar position) prior to the news release, wait for the market to make its move and then re-assess how you’re going to trade it. Hope this helps?
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Thank you
It helps alot and Jah it’s very difficult to predict those news directions, however I will stick to your raised point. 
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AUD USD; as I posted earlier I was long this trade but it went against me. I don’t use SL but hedge instead. My hedge kicked in and after a few days I managed the trade to a breakeven exit instead of what would have been a loss.
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Great, that sounds like a fair strategy! Although myself, i’d be reluctant to not use Stop Loss for impulsive spikes or extreme fundamental movements. Have you caught any nice trades this week @Diabolo888?
Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation. I look forward to engaging with you all.
In this week’s Technical Analysis Article, CADJPY. Let’s get into it…
Weekly
On the weekly chart, we can see that from the last quarter of 2014 to November 2016 we were in a bear market; with price finding a floor around the 75.5 area - which is the lowest price had been since 2012. From here the market made a recovery moving up to the 89.0 level and has been ranging within the 80.5 – 89.0 support/resistance zone since. Around Sept ‘17 & Jan ‘18 we saw price try to break above this level twice but was unable to hold and continued fluctuating back down to the 80.5 support zone.
Daily
From the Daily chart we can see around Oct 2018 the market once again couldn’t break the 89.0 resistance level, instead, it reversed down to the 77.5 low but was unable to hold and close below the 80.5 support zone. The bulls then came back into action and pushed price back up until resistance was found at the 0.618 Fib, along with dynamic resistance of the 200EMA. This brought the price back down towards the 80.5- where once again the market reacted to this level and the bulls came back to take over control from the bears. We know the market has reacted off this level multiple times on the higher time frames, giving us confirmation that this is a solid support level – meaning that the market could possibly do this again (reverse), rather than breakthrough and continue to the downside.
Daily
As we get closer to the action, for anyone who likes to trade advanced patterns - we also have a Gartley D leg completion that has just occurred. We already had our eyes set on trading this pair to the buy side with price being at a key weekly support level, so the Gartley D leg completion is just that extra bit of confirmation that helps us to find a good entry point, as well as where we may look to take profits.
I have drawn in traditional profit targets on this trade for those who may have entered –
Daily
Using a Fib retracement drawn from A to D, our conventional profit targets would be as follows -
• Profit Target 1: 0.382 Fib (82.55) – giving us around 1:1 risk/reward ratio.
• Profit Target 2: 0.618 Fib (83.55) – giving us around 1.5:1 risk/reward ratio.
With a stop loss placement 20pips below X, I’d be looking to go risk-free on this trade upon profit target 1 being hit. The market is currently on its way to profit target 1 and hopefully, this will continue without any further movement to the downside. However, we know price action never moves in straight lines, so let’s see if the bulls can continue to control the market over the coming days and weeks.
Thanks for your time today, I look forward to your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
sources: uk.tradingview.com
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Interesting analysis!!
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This looks to be moving in your favour at the minute, great to see this analysis coming good. 
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Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation. I look forward to engaging with you all.
In this week’s Technical Analysis Article, I’d like to update you on a couple of recent trades I have taken on CADJPY & WTI Oil. Let’s get cracking…
CADJPY - Daily
Firstly, on CADJPY from my last article – after entering, it took around 5 days for my long position to hit my take profit – which came within pips of my profit target 1! (0.382 fib level). Resulting in a 1:1 risk/reward ratio of 1% profit. The bullish momentum was short-lived at this point as the dynamic resistance of the 50ema held strong and the market began to tumble again back towards the 81.00 support zone. With the market reaching this support level once again, my eyes caught another potential set-up forming yesterday.
CADJPY - Weekly
Taking a brief look here on the weekly chart, price is fluctuating within this descending triangle formation and you can see just how strong the 81.00 level has become within this market. In fact, we’ve almost got the exact same setup occurring - this time, however, we may have some additional confirmation, I’ll move back to the daily chart and explain.
CADJPY Daily – Yesterday
So, this could potentially form one my favourite reversal set-ups – a double bottom on a daily timeframe, hitting a major support and whole number psychological level (81.00), a bullish daily doji pin candle and bullish RSI divergence. I’ll be waiting to see how the current daily candle closes as final confirmation before entering this market to the buy side.
CADJPY Daily - Today
Moving to today (Friday 31st May) - I can confirm I was unable to enter this trade. As this is a reversal strategy, the probability still favours the bears in this market, so the only way I could have placed a long entry is if we saw a strong buyer candle close yesterday after the Doji pin bar. The bullish momentum didn’t continue to strengthen and as you can see the market broke through the 81.00 zone to the downside. Moving forward I’ll now be sitting on my hands and waiting for the price to make its mind up – Will it break back into the ascending triangle formation? Or re-test the underside of the 81.00 zone turning support in resistance? I’ll be sure to keep you posted in the coming days/weeks.
Now, moving onto WTI Oil –
WTI Oil Weekly – (March)
Here is a quick glance at my technical analysis on Oil from March, I have been waiting for confirmation to enter this market short. The confirmation I wanted to see was a reaction around the 0.5 / 0.618 Fib levels along with a rejection of this ascending trendline where support would become resistance.
WTI Oil – Weekly – (Today)
Move forward to the past couple of weeks in May 2019. We’ve finally had our confirmation with a huge engulfing weekly candle that shadows the previous 2 candles, coupled up with a rejection of the 0.618 Fib level. For me, this is a set-up of dreams, having such confirmation on a timeframe such as the weekly is one of the strongest formation set-ups you can ask for as a Trader. I’ll move down to the daily chart and display my entry and potential exit areas.
WTI Oil Daily -
Taking my short position at the beginning of May after the weekly engulfing pin bar had closed - I have drawn in a Fib retracement on my chart to show you my target areas:
-
Profit Target 1: 0.382 Fib (57.3) – giving me around a 1:1 risk/reward ratio
-
Profit Target 2: 0.618 (52.0) – giving me around a 2:1 risk/reward ratio
Seeing as the market completely smashed through my profit target 1 area yesterday it has given me no reason yet to close this trade. Instead, I have moved my stop loss placement to risk-free and am now looking to ride the wave all the way down to my profit target 2 at the 0.618 Fib. If the market gives me any signal of a turnaround I’ll look to close out for a profit – but so far, so good…I’m holding.
Thanks for your time today and hope you have a great weekend; I look forward to your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
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Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation. I look forward to engaging with you all.
In this week’s Technical Analysis Article, I’d like to update you on my WTI Oil trade conclusion, along with some analysis setting up next week for EURGBP.
WTI -Daily
Let’s get right into it… Following on from my article last week where I gave an update on my WTI trade that profit target 1, I was risk-free and the market gave me no reason to close – so I held. A few trading days later and in the picture above, you can see my profit target 2 got smashed: resulting in a 2:1 risk/reward trade. I’m now interested to see what the market does around this area, as we’re sitting at the 0.618 fib -is price due to pull back up towards the $60 mark? Or will we see a small pullback recovery before the bears continue to send price action down? I’ll be keeping a close eye on WTI over the coming days/weeks and will be sure to keep you posted.
EURGBP Weekly -
Now onto EURGBP, above we can see price action has been fluctuating between the 0.91 & 0.83 support and resistance zone since September 2016, with only one attempt of a breakout during September 2017, but the bullish momentum was short lived before price fell back within the sup/res zone. I’ve also drawn in an ascending trendline from May 2017 that the market has used for support and resistance giving me some confidence as we see price react off this level currently. Looking in more detail, I’ve also noticed some extra confirmation we could use to enter this market.
EURGBP Daily -
In order for me to trade the pair to the sell-side, I’d need to see some strong daily bearish price action providing confirmation to place a short. Similar to how I traded Oil over the past few weeks – you can see the market has pushed all the way up from its bearish run during Q1 2019 - touched the ascending trendline turning support into resistance, a rejection at the 0.618 Fib level and overbought bearish RSI divergence. These are strong confluences that can ultimately give confirmation to enter the market, however as mentioned, I’ll be waiting to see how price reacts to this level – to give me the opportunity to enter this market short.
An alternative scenario, we could see a breakthrough of the ascending trendline to the upside, a pullback and re-test of the trendline (resistance now turned support) before continuing to rise towards the 0.905 zone.
Let’s see how this one plays out, thanks for your time today and as always I look forward to your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
_sources:uk.tradingview.com
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Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
I’m sticking with WTI Oil this week – Do we have another entry on its way?
WTI -Daily
Here’s a quick snapshot of last week’s short taken and closed on Oil. With price hitting my Profit Target 2 around $51.4. Moving forward a week, to today, I’ve potentially found a new entry. Let me break it down.
WTI – Weekly.
On the weekly timeframe I have highlighted a clear support and resistance zone that has been well respected since 2015 in this market ($50 - $51 value zone). As we get closer to the action, I’ll display some further confirmation that may give me the go ahead to trade.
WTI weekly
As you can see, last week formed a textbook weekly pin bar at this strong support/resistance zone ($50 - $51), along with a rejection of the 0.618 Fib - which is now beginning to suggest that price action is struggling to break this level and the sellers are losing strength.
On the daily timeframe to break down my potential entry.
Daily –
From my above criteria, I am now waiting on confirmation to enter a long position that fits my double bottom reversal strategy. So far, we have bullish RSI divergence with a bullish candle close yesterday, signalling the bears are running out of steam. Though, for me to enter I now need today’s daily candle (Friday 13th June) to close bullish and above Wednesday’s (11th June) bear candle. This will then meet my criteria for a double bottom entry to get involved on Monday’s daily open.
Upon this setup occurring – below I have displayed where my profit targets will be placed.
Daily targets –
For my profit targets, I’ve drawn in a Fib retracement from the high to low on the daily chart and as per usual I’ll be looking at the 0.382 & 0.618 levels as my 2 profit targets. Anyone who’s been following my articles can probably tell I’m a big fan of using Fib retracement levels for entries & profit targets – as I find these levels are well respected throughout trading markets and Oil is no exception - you can see the 0.618 Fib is sitting tightly to the psychological ‘whole’ number of $60. Of course this does not mean the market is certain to reach this level but even with my profit target 1 level at the 0.382 Fib, it’s sitting right at the $57 sup/res zone and psychological ‘whole’ value – showing clear confluence of these levels being previously respected and highly likely to be respected moving forward.
Upon a long entry position, I’d also place quite a tight stop loss just below last week’s lowest daily wick, reason being; the market has signalled to me (within my double bottom criteria) that price action is struggling to break this support level and the bulls may be coming in to take control, meaning I can be slightly more aggressive with my risk management.
• Profit Target 1: $56.6 (0.382 Fib) – resulting in a 1:1 risk/reward
• Profit Target 2: $60 (0.618 Fib) – resulting in a 2.3:1 risk/reward
If, however, we do not get confirmation to enter long after today’s daily close, I’ll be waiting on a downside breakthrough of the $50 level and for price to pullback and re-test the support now turned resistance. From here I’ll be waiting for my short entry criteria to be met and look to trade price action down towards the $45-$46 handle. If this is the case, I’ll be sure to keep you posted in next week’s article.
But for now, let’s see how this one plays out.
Thanks for your time today and as always, I look forward to your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
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Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
This week I’ll be updating you on my Oil entry from last week as well as a forecast of what’s potentially to come on EURGBP.
Before I jump into my EURGBP technical analysis, here’s an update of my WTI entry I had lined up last week.
Oil Daily –
From the chart above, you can see my double bottom strategy was fulfilled and I entered my buy position on Monday (17th June) after the 2nd consecutive daily bull close we had on Friday. Since entering long, we had a seller’s day on Monday where the bears attempted one more time to remain in control, but come Tuesday, the bulls were in full effect and made a breakthrough to the upside taking all momentum away from the sellers. Yesterday (Thursday 21st June) my profit target 1 was hit and the position has been closed at $56.64 (0.382 Fib), resulting in a 1.8:1 risk/reward.
Now target 1 has been hit, I’ll be waiting to see how the market reacts to this level - if we have a clean breakthrough I’ll be looking for the market to pullback a re-test the 0.382 area (turning resistance into support) for me to enter for profit target 2. However, if we get some consolidation, signs of a strong pullback or reversal at this current level, I’ll be waiting for the market to set-up bullish again to re-enter; this could come from a re-test of the 0.236 Fib level ($54.3ish), and along with candle stick confirmation I’ll re-enter a buy position, aiming for Profit target 2 (0.618 Fib / $60). I’ll let you know how this plays out next week.
Now, let’s move onto a potential set-up occurring on EURGBP…
EURGBP Weekly -
Looking at the weekly chart and at the time of writing this, we’re seeing a rejection around the 0.89-0.9 level, which coincides with the 0.618 Fib level. Even though we had a breakthrough of this key Fib level – price is pulling back to the underside of this level and if we get a close below it would signal a potential sell opportunity. I have also drawn a descending trendline from the August 2017 high around 0.93 and we can see price has on multiple occasions broken through this trendline but each time it was unable to close above the trendline, resulting in the formation of many bearish wicks.
EURGBP Weekly -
Moving closer in on the action, I am awaiting confirmation to get into this market, if this week’s candle close is bearish (preferably as a pin or engulfing candle) along with closing below both my trendlines around the 0.618 region - I’ll have the confirmation required for me to get in short on Monday’s open.
EURGBP Weekly -
For profit targets on this trade upon a long entry on Monday, will be slightly different from my usual 0.382 & 0.618 Fib targets. This time we have the previous swing low as a possible target to aim for. I have drawn in my Fib retracement as I usually would but this time I’ll be looking to target the 0.618 Fib level (0.866) as my profit target 1, and the previous swing low as my profit target 2 (0.852) – which sits very close to the 0.886 Fib retracement level too. My stop loss on this trade will be fairly tight, 25 pips above the current weekly candle (around 0.900).
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Profit Target 1: 0.866 (0.816 Fib) – resulting in a 1.1:1 risk/reward
-
Profit Target 2: 0.852 (previous swing low) – resulting in a 2:1 risk/reward
Let’s see if the weekly candle gives me confirmation to enter, if so, I’ll be sure to keep you posted.
Thanks for your time today and as always, I look forward to your thoughts.
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
sources:uk.tradingview.com
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
This week my technical analysis on Oil over the past few weeks is now moving towards completion.
Oil Daily –
Quick screenshot on last week’s article where my trade had hit my profit target 1.
Now with regards to my profit target 2. I have some good news… and some bad news.
Let me explain.
WTI Daily -
So I’ll start with the bad news, I was unable to trade last week due to illness, which is never a good idea to trade whilst you’re not in the right frame of mind, so I decided to take a few days off. However! The good news is - Oil continued to move in the direction of my analysis and is moving ever closer to my profit target 2! Only annoying this for me is I was not able to take the trade (yes – sympathy votes for missed pips are more than welcome 
).
However, there will always be another trade. What I’ll do is break down when and where I would have entered, as well as how I may look to trade this commodity moving forward.
WTI 1 Hour -
So as you can see here price is well on its way to my profit target 2, huge shame I was unable to catch an entry on this trade! However, if I was trading my re-entry for profit target 2 would have come on Monday 24th June as displayed in the image above. After taking profit at my first target, I wouldn’t have wanted to jump straight back in as price may have completely fallen back down toward the $51 mark and eaten up pretty much all my profits I had just taken. We can see from Friday’s & Monday’s price action that the market had tried to pull back multiple times to break back down below the 0.382 Fib level ($56.5), but struggled to break or close below - the bears remained in full control. With this strong support level at $56.5, the confirmation for me to enter would have come from the pin bar rejection and dynamic resistance we had from the 50EMA. Here I would have entered for my Profit Target 2. My stop loss placement sitting 130 pips below my entry – giving me a 2:1 risk/reward upon hitting target 2 / 0.618 Fib / $60.3.
WTI Daily -
I’ll be interested to see what may come after my profit target 2 is hit (IF being the keyword of course). As the 0.618 Fib sits bang on the $60 support and resistance level, as well as being a psychological whole value. We could see the bulls continue on with the full force, break through to the upside and head towards the $66 level. Or we may see a rejection at this 0.618 Fib level and see price head back down towards the $50-$54 mark. There’s a possibility for me to enter either of these price movements – however, I will be waiting to see how the market reacts to this level before entering the buy or sell side. I’ll be sure to keep you posted as ever.
Although, I personally didn’t manage to catch the 2nd entry on Oil. If I did manage to take, as well as the market hitting my profit target 2 – this would result in an overall move of around 750 pips.
As it stands at the time of writing this today, Monday 1st July 2019 - I am around 30 pips away from my Profit Target 2.
Let’s see if the move completes! Thanks for your time today and as always, I look forward to your thoughts.
image sources:uktradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
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Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
It’s been quite a quiet week in the markets with the pairs I tend to trade, which is always a test of patience for us Traders! Plus with NFP falling today – I’m sure most will be holding off entering any USD based pairs until it’s release.
I do have my eyes on Cable, however, we’ve had nothing but sideways movement pretty much all week. Do we have a turn around in trend on the horizon or is the market prepping for its next leg to the downside? – I definitely won’t be entering any positions until I have confirmation to do so, I’ll break down what I have my eyes on.
GBPUSD Daily
The pound has really struggled over the past month to rise up past the 1.27 handle. With price trying multiple times to break through this resistance level and having no luck to close above, and the bears continue to send the pound back down below this level. You can see from the image above how strong this level and proven to be for GBPUSD. Is the market going to continue to the downside? Or are we in the midst of a trend reversal – let’s get closer to the action.
GBPUSD 4 Hour
Extending this descending trendline I’ve had drawn on my charts since March price action continues to react - whether it’s a rejection, a breakthrough or re-test you can clearly see it’s been respected over the past few months. We’re currently seeing consolidation around this trendline once again but we also have some other confluences that could factor into a trend reversal which we can see as we zoom in on the action.
GBPUSD 4 Hour
One factor is a potential Head & Shoulders pattern on the horizon? We haven’t had confirmation quite as of yet but is something I’ll be keeping my eye on moving forward over the coming weeks. As with NFP and state of the UK in general at the moment it’s anyone’s guess where the market’s likely to head next - we could see the price just continue to tumble down towards the previous swing low of 1.25. On the hourly however – there could be an entry to get in if the NFP release today to help with confirmation to enter – on the 1 hour chart we’ll get a clearer picture of how we could potentially get involved.
GBPUSD 1 Hour
Again, we get a clearer picture of price action reacting to this descending trendline. We also have a bearish wedge that the market has been forming all week and this morning broke through to the underside – only to find this trendline slow the momentum of price action once again! Are we going to see the same occur here? A bullish rejection? Which in turn could send the price up to and fulfil the Head & Shoulders pattern? Or is it just having a rest before continuing to fall? I can imagine, quite a few Traders may have entered a short position after this breakthrough (me personally, I would want to see a pullback and re-test of the underside of the wedge prior to entering a short position). Nevertheless, I’m going to break down how I could trade the market if the dollar was to receive a terrible data release this afternoon.
Upon poor USD data and with further candlestick confirmation around the 1.2554 level. I’d look for an entry to go long - To do so though, I’d need a solid bullish candlestick confirmation after the US news. I’ve drawn in my profit targets to give you an idea of how I’d be looking to enter and exit.
• Profit target 1: (0.382 Fib) 1.262 – resulting in a 1:1 risk/reward
• Profit target 2: (0.6128 Fib) 1.266 – resulting in a 1.75/1 risk reward
Along with having my stop loss placed 5-10 pips below the previous swing low. For now though, I’ll be sitting patiently on the release of USD data today and for the market to confirm an entry before getting on board. As it wouldn’t surprise me with the state of our Great British economy at the moment resulting in the market continuing to tumble down towards the 1.23-25 levels.
As ever I’ll be sure to keep you posted. Thanks for your time today
image sources: uk.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
Another week in the markets – Another trade taken on Oil. Let’s go…
Daily
After the double bottom traded from mid-June (you can find in my previous articles). I have been waiting for price to reach the $60 support and resistance zone for any short opportunities to get me back in the market. However, In the midst of the price rising this week, I’ve managed to catch another long position after we had price pullback at the beginning of July.
Below I’ll break down the trade for you.
1 Hour
After the pullback we had at the beginning of July, price proceeded to range and consolidate within $56 - $57. With my bias still towards bullish momentum, I was waiting on a breakthrough of this zone to the upside, a pullback and then re-test to the resistance now turned support. Once this occurred, On Monday (8th July) I was given confirmation to enter long, and 2days later on Wednesday 10th July, price hit my take profit and closed me out for 170 pips profit and a 2.5:1 risk/reward.
4 Hour
Furthermore, pulling out from the hourly and taking a look on the 4 hour chart. We’ve had a breakthrough of this descending trendline, I am now expecting price to re-trace and test this trendline - turning resistance into support, which you can also see coincides with the .618 Fib retracement level. If this pullback is to occur, and I receive confirmation to enter - I’ll be looking to trade this once again to the buy-side back up towards the $60 handle.
Let’s see how this one pans out… I’ll be sure to keep you posted
Thanks for your time today
image sources: uk.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
Another week in the markets – Another trade taken on Oil, along with a tidy buy position on Gold, check out my analysis below:
4 Hour
Firstly, a snapshot update from the end of last week’s article on Oil, price really struggled to break and close above the $60 value, giving me a potential opportunity to re-enter. This time though, to the sell side, back down towards the descending trendline (drawn above with a red arrow). Confirmation for entry, formed on the 1-hour chart this Monday afternoon (15th July) which I’ll break down in the following paragraph.
Daily –
Illustrated on the Daily timeframe above, the $60 value is holding strong along with the 0.618 Fib resistance, giving me confidence that a turnaround in trend or at least a strong pullback is on the cards. From here, I was waiting for my strategy criteria to be met before I take a short position. My entry came on the 1 Hour chart which you can see below:
1 Hour -
As you can see; my initial short entry closed out and hit my take profit just above the descending trendline I had drawn in - for a total move of 165 pips.
Price, however, continued to fall and broke-through the trendline. It was at this level where I could see another potential entry on the horizon for me to re-enter to the sell-side again. I was waiting on a pullback and re-test to the underside of the descending trendline which occurred the following day, this Wednesday (17th July). This position did not hit my take profit as I manually closed after the bullish pin bar formed at an area of support around $56.30.
This trade totalled for 166 pips profit, so overall a great week in trading oil with 331 pips profit accumulated in just under 3 days. The fun doesn’t stop there though, as I also managed to catch a nice breakout trade on Gold that I’ll breakdown for you.
4 Hour –
Here on the 4 Hour chart, you can see we’ve had a bullish pennant forming since the end of June. So for me, this was just a matter of waiting on an upside breakout, pullback and re-test for me to enter long, for its next leg to the upside. This finally occurred yesterday Thursday 18th July and I’ll display below my entry and exit levels.
1 Hour –
After the pennant had its upside breakthrough, instead of jumping in too early I waited for my breakout strategy criteria to be met upon a pullback and retest of the upper side of the pennant. After this occurred, I placed my long position and my take profit level was hit around 4 hours later for a total of 170 pips profit which overall resulted in a 2:1 Reward:Risk trade.
A total of 501 pips profit taken from the markets this week, I’ve now got my eyes on a few set-ups that may come into play next week, which as always, I’ll be sure to keep you posted.
Thanks for your time today and feel free to share any of your trades taken this week.
image sources: uk.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the Forex markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
What’s on the horizon for Gold over the coming days and weeks? Let’s take a look.
Daily
This week I have my eyes on Gold setting up for a potential leg down after being on a bull run since the end of May as you can see in the daily chart above (taking Gold to its highest price since 2013), with price finding resistance around 25th June at the 1430 – 1433 resistance zone. Since then the market has been ranging within an ascending triangle formation, we did have the price breakthrough and close above this 1430 – 1433 zone of resistance on 18th July but was short-lived with the price falling back under this level the following day. The proceeding daily candles have all tried to break through this resistance zone but the bulls have had no luck in closing above.
It’s been a real fight between the bears and bulls over the past few weeks to take control but yesterday (25th July) we had the bears close the day off with an engulfing bearish candle, engulfing the previous 4 days candlesticks. Whilst the market has been consolidating in this triangle formation, we’re also seeing a bearish divergence on the RSI. This is signalling we could be looking at a trend reversal soon coming into action within this precious metal. If we are to see this trend reversal I’ll breakdown below how I’ll be looking to trade this market to the downside.
4 Hour
Getting closer in on the action, I have displayed how my next set-up may occur providing we get a downside breakthrough of the triangle formation trendline. If this happens over the coming trading days I will be waiting on a pullback and re-test to the underside of this trendline to confirm my entry to short. With confirmation to do so, I’ll be looking to trade it down to 1385.00 with my stop loss placed above the previous swing high – which will result in a 1.8:1 reward/risk if my target is to be hit.
4 Hour
Alternatively, we could see the bulls come straight back into power and break through the 1430 -1433 resistance zone. This then may offer opportunities to enter the market long as displayed above. Either way, the market is to head over the next few days or weeks we could have some good opportunities coming to trade this market to the buy or sell side.
As ever I’ll be sure to keep you posted!
Thanks for your time today and feel free to share any of your trades taken this week.
image sources: uk.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.
Stephen W
I am a Technical Forex Trader & Analyst.
Trading the markets on behalf of Samuel and Co Trading in Watford. I am a Technical Trader, here to take on the game and turn the sceptics into believers. Join my journey as I release weekly technical analysis and trade breakdowns - opening the floor to feedback and conversation.
This week I’m taking a slightly different approach to my article and analysis. I want to focus on the importance of structure and mindset when it comes to trading, hopefully, to also help other beginner traders out there understand the importance of these fundamental factors.
For those that may have been keeping up to date with my articles over the past couple months would know I’ve had a very successful run in trading Oil, which is by far my favourite and most successful market to trade. But what comes with a string of winners also can lead to a false sense of confidence in your trading ability and mindset, especially for beginners. I’m still at the beginning stages of my trading career with only 12months of trading experience and actually only around 8 months experience of live trading. It’s been an up and down journey, to say the least, but I continue to embrace the lessons this lucrative industry continues to teach me.
For anyone who knows me knows I’m a big believer in, “You either Win or you Learn” and this also goes for life outside of trading. In life, we have to take ‘losses’ or how I’d like to call them ‘lessons’ in order to learn and progress as an individual – and trading is no exception.
With a 71% win ratio after 38 trades taken on Oil, it has definitely become my favourite market to trade, main reason being; it highly respects technical analysis and suits the style in which I like to trade. So recently, I decided to attempt trading another market, being, Gold. All whilst believing I could trade it in the same style I have been on Oil – and this, is not the case.
Below I’ll run you through one of my losses (out of a fair few), this one though, was 100% my fault and not the markets; as I went against my strategy rules and criteria and didn’t trust my original analysis – everything I tell other traders starting out ‘not to do’ - which then led to the trade moving exactly where I wanted it to go as originally predicted - I’m sure we’ve all heard of this happening or experienced it for ourselves right?
So Instead of making back profits from previous losses, I ended up giving the market more of my capital. It’s at this stage a lot of traders would give the whole “Trading’s not real, it doesn’t work, it’s all a fugazi” – being the famous words of Matthew McConaughey in Wolf of Wall Street.
However, for me, this is just another hurdle and stepping stone in my journey of learning the skills of a professional Trader. Did the loss hurt? – Yes, it did. Will I let this stop me from succeeding? – No way… This has just made me more motivated & determined to achieve my end goal and dreams.
I Win. Or I Learn.
So let me run you through my mistakes and what I shouldn’t have done –
Before I begin, above is a snapshot from my analysis last week that I already had lined up and all I had to do was wait for confirmation to enter the market -
Below, you can see how the market reached the 1403 level I had displayed and hit my first level of support upon a downside breakthrough of the ascending triangle trendline.
So the first stages of last week’s analysis were pretty much bang on. Now on the 1 hour chart, I’ll show you where I went wrong -
1 Hour
Firstly, 1 - We had price forming within this rising wedge which usually indicates we may have a sell-off coming into action. 2 - Along with bearish divergence on the RSI – also indicating the bulls are running out of steam. 3 - With my final confirmation to enter shortcoming after a double top formed at the 1432 – 1434 resistance zone. So here is where I entered my short position and had my profit target sitting at 1404 value.
Now, comes my mistake, a few hours after entering I saw a bullish pin bar form and instead of just holding tight and trusting the original analysis I closed my sell position and entered long. Only to find the following hourly candle close was a huge bullish engulfing pin that engulfed the previous 8 candles (one of my favourite confirmation setups – and confirming my original analysis even more so).
Thereafter, the market proceeded to break through the rising wedge, continued to fall and also broke down through the ascending triangle trendline - hitting what would have been my original profit target the following day (on Thursday 1st Aug). Resulting in a loss that should have actually resulted in a 2:1 reward/risk profitable trade.
Hopefully, this breakdown sheds some light on how you can be your own worst enemy in trading – you can either let it get to you, put you down and complain that the market is ‘always against you’. Or you can face up to it, take responsibility and use this lesson to learn from and try to avoid doing again in the future. This is where the skill of trading only makes up 20% of your success and the other 80% is made up of your mindset.
You Win. Or You Learn.
Before I leave you, however, of course, we don’t want to end on a downer do we:
So let me end the show with another lovely Oil trade taken on Wednesday that hit my take profit 24 hours later.
Oil 4 Hour –
After a bearish run mid-July, the market pulled back and rejected the .618 Fib along with 4 hour hanging man candle close I placed my short entry. Closing me out the following day for a 2:1 reward: risk and 108 pips profit.
That feels better 
Thanks for your time today and as always, I look forward to your thoughts.
image sources: uk.tradingview.com
Disclaimer: Any statements non-factual in nature constitute only current opinions, which are subject to change. The information presented in this article is not a specific buy or sell recommendation and is presented solely for informational purposes only. Not to be taken as financial advice.