The Trader's Arms 2nd Floor

Ok gang, here we are, The Trader’s Arms 2nd Floor. A new thread and I was going to change my screen name to something like ‘The Serial Pipper’ or ‘The Pip Slayer’ or ‘The Rotweiler Pip Slaying Ninja Seal SAS guy’. But I think I might stay with HoG. Might change my avatar later though. :16: (Wudya think ??)

If everything goes according to plan we should be able to run the 2nd floor with the focus firmly on trading, and the original Trader’s Arms for the …tangents we tend to go off on now and again.

So there are a couple of posts I’d like to make before we throw the doors open for discussion, so if the usual suspects could just bear with me until I get those out of the road, we’ll be good to go as soon as possible. The rest of this post is aimed squarely at BEGINNER TRADERS.

For the benefit of those who have found the Trader’s Arms for the first time, here is a very brief history. In May 2011 I opened a micro account with FXCM. At the end of August 2012 I finally blew that account. The reason I lost that account is very, very simple. AT BEST, I made a less than half hearted attempt to LEARN trading, and given that even that description is being kind to me, rather than sitting here now asking myself, “Why did I lose my account?”, a more apt question would surely be “Why did it take SO LONG for me to lose my account?”

It is extremely easy to fund an account, hit buttons and watch the show, (for a short while anyway until that account disappears), but LEARNING trading is a different thing all together. And since it is my long term goal to eventually trade for a living, LEARNING is what we have to do, properly this time. So we need to go back to the very start, and ask the questions that I should’ve asked as a complete beginner.

The trouble is though, when you ARE a complete beginner, you’re not really sure what those questions are, but now that I do have experience in trading, albeit very limited experience in the grand scheme of things, I think I do know now what those first few questions should be, and what order they should come in.

I would be prepared to wager that the first question the majority of new traders ask is one of the following;

  1. How do I learn to trade?
  2. How do I know if a currency pair is going up or down?
  3. How/Where do I find a strategy (or what IS a strategy?)
  4. When will I be able to buy my first yacht?

Many new traders may even have come across advice on the internet telling them to first look within themselves to distinguish what kind of trader they are best suited to be. Quick thinking, fast acting short term trader or thoughtful, deliberate longer term trader. So is that really the first question? What kind of trader will I be?

Hhhmmm…do me a favour. Give me 15 minutes of your life to watch this video and then we’ll decide.

[video=youtube_share;CDFC16ptx-0]http://youtu.be/CDFC16ptx-0[/video]

So now let me ask you two questions.

  1. What was the video about?
  2. What do you now think the first question you should ask yourself is when starting out in trading?

Well pure and simply the video was about commitment. It was a simple message that says if you want to be successful, if you want to achieve great things IN ANY ENDEAVOUR in life, then you’d better be COMMITTED. You’d better be prepared to put everything else on hold and give that thing your undivided, complete and full attention. Because if you’re not ready to give that commitment, then this time next year it’ll be you writing this post.

And that’s an iron clad, no money back, HoG guarantee !!

So the first question YOU, as a brand new trader, should ask yourself is this;

[U][B]“Should I even be here at all?”[/B][/U]

Because if you’re not ready and willing to put the effort in, the simple one word answer to that question is, [B][/B]NO !!

SO you better be ready, you better get your game face on and make a commitment. Make a commitment to learn, make a commitment to the fabulous bunch of experienced traders you’ll find on this forum who are in here giving out the benefit of their own hard work for free. If they’re willing to invest their time in us for nothing, then the LEAST we do is get off our arses and try our best.

But most of all make a commitment to yourself, I’m sure there is a better life out there just waiting for those who are prepared to work for it.

But I know it won’t be easy. You WON’T be the person who makes a million by minimal effort, I admire that optimism but it just won’t happen. If you don’t put in the effort to LEARN, the FX market, or ANY market for that matter, will run right over you and won’t even bother to look back to see if your still moving.

Hopefully, if you are new to trading, you’ll hang around and learn with me as I go. We might even throw in a bit of the motivational stuff along the way eh ST?

Two more posts and we’ll throw the doors open. Probably do them tomorrow as I’ve not made contact with my bed sheets for nearly 37 hours now.

Just before I go I’d like to say thanks to the Rocky fan for becoming a shoulder. It’s nice to know that there’s still good guys left out there.

HoG

Top man Hog… rarely have I seen such honesty in a post. The ability to pick yourself up and dust yourself down and get back in the fight is crucial. Nothing worth while ever comes easily. If its any consolation it took me three years and tens of thousands of hours to get to ‘reliable’, I’d put no higher a value on my trading at that point. Then many thousands of additional hours to get consistant. I’d certainly echo the link that initially you have to be self absorbed and put your life on hold… I can remember spending many many 24-36 hour stints in front of the monitors trying to figure out why PA did what it did over each trading session (London, New York, Asian). I tried every indicator and combo, etc. What drove me on, and I can only speak for myself here, was wanting SO bad to learn how it works and honestly not about the money. Perhaps that was the difference? I’m not saying the money would not have been welcomed, just that my motivation was cracking the ‘inigma code’ if you will. Anyway, great start to your new thread Hog and no, keep the avatar! :57:

Hi HoG, glad to hear you are coming back to trading. You know we will get our hands dirty as the thread progresses, but now I going to try answer these questions as short as I can.

[B]How do I learn to trade?[/B]

Practicing, but not in demo.

[B]How do I know if a currency pair is going up or down?[/B]

Use your eyes they will tell you :slight_smile: unless you spot a reversal pattern at S/R

[B]How/Where do I find a strategy (or what IS a strategy?)[/B]

The strategy for trading is within you, do not follow someone else system. Just pick the tools you think they are the best to be profitable (the fewer, the better) and find an edge

[B]When will I be able to buy my first yacht?[/B]

Sooner than you think :slight_smile:

I will be willing to share all my knowledge and experience at trading FX with you :slight_smile:

Im putting in this post here so that I wont miss any of the trading setups that are going to be whispered in here!

I support R Carters statement regarding the screen time. I seriously think I could have gotten myself another degree or something!

£3.56

Niki, ever since you made your “noisy” post I can’t help but smile every time I see your name. Not that I didn’t smile when I saw your name before that, it just seems to be be a bit bigger nowadays LOL!!

Anyway, I’ve been teasing ST over the last few days about my new found source of inspiration going forward. Let me just tell him what that is, then we’ll hopefully do one more post before close of trading tonight and then we’re off.

So Mr Templar, hope this stops the chaffing, (:))

You may have noticed the £3.56 figure printed at the top of this post. Here’s the reason for it. Recently the Royal Mint published a statistic that they reckon there is £50 million in change, “lost” in the uk. It’s either lying in dirt somewhere, down the back of sofas, lying in the back of your rubbish drawer or someone has just simply thrown it away. The point is there’s £50 million un-accounted for.

Now, let me ask you a question, let me ask that question to everyone in fact;

What is the ONLY way you make money in FX??? I mean, they’re not printing extra money just to give to FX traders, they’re not inventing new money just for our benefit now are they?

No. The ONLY way we GAIN money in FX is when some-one else LOSSES money. It’s a swap right? They throw it away and we hopefully collect it. Look at this picture:


Now what you are looking at there is…yep, you guessed it…£3.56. This is money that I have found over the last two weeks that people have either lost, or simply thrown away. And this is what I’ll be using in future to inspire myself NOT TO THROW MY MONEY AWAY.

The plan is to keep saving it until I get to £50, then convert it into a £50 note at the bank then frame the bloody thing and hang it above my computer with the words; DON’T THROW IT AWAY on it

I joked in the first post that I was going to change my Avatar, and I will, to a picture of my £50 note when I get it. Being a taxi driver and finding change in the back of the cab on a regular basis, this might take me less time than it would some-one else. But you’ll see the total change at the top of posts as we go until we hit £50.

Everyone needs inspiration in life, this is what I’m using to get me going, to remind me NOT TO THROW MY MONEY AWAY EVER AGAIN. Other people need to find they’re own thing that drives them onwards. But whatever it takes, FIND IT and USE IT everyday.

Hope this eases the itch ST.

In the next post we’ll decide on what the first topic of discussion should be. I’m thinking either STOP LOSSES or Support AND RESISTANCE.

Talk Later guys.

HoG

Final thing is just to say what I hope this thread will be, and what I don’t want it to be.

Obviously the point of this is primarily to learn, but I hope it turns out to be a discussion thread. I’ll explain what I mean;

I would like to take a subject, say for instance support and resistance. Discuss how to use that properly and effectively, what to do and what not to. I’m not asking anyone to give away any of their “secrets”, or lead anyone by the hand. The good thing about ICT’s thread is that at the same time as giving out information, he DOES expect the readers to put their fair share of work in also.

So I’m not expecting a point by point A to Z of how to trade, I just would like to take subjects, in the order they should be learned for trading, and discuss their use, effectiveness and then each individual can decide whether that subject would be relevant to their own style of trading. If y’all see what I mean.

If anyone wants to post examples of a trade they have made, and the set of criteria used in making that trading decision, then great, feel free, but it’s not necessary. It would be enough just to say, “Look, here’s a subject, here’s how it is used most effectively, here’s when it doesn’t work, here’s the good points about it, here’s the bad points about it, now go away and play around with it to see if it suits your style.”

And I’d be happy at that. Obviously different people will have different views, but that’s why it’s called a discussion right?

In the original Trader’s Arms we fell into a sort of “I’ve went short EU at 1-26.” and that was it. And if anyone still wants to tell these sort of things then again that’s fine, but I’d rather it was a sort of “yesterday I went short EU at 1-26 because price was at 1-26 which was long term resistance, or because the hippopotamus in my back garden was screaming SELL !!”

I’d actually rather have a discussion of how to use something, with examples of how it was used to good or bad effect. We’re not asking for anyone’s profit or loss or secret edge. There is a quote that I wish I could remember who said it, could probably find it on google, that says;

“When a stick floating down a river gets stuck, it doesn’t need a psychiatrist it just needs a nudge.”

I think that sums up perfectly what I’m trying to say I hope this thread becomes. Just a nudge in the right direction of forming good, sensible trading rules and practices.

So with that all said we can now get started as soon as you all like. At the risk of looking as though I am trying to re-create the poor man’s “What Every New…”,I think we should kick it all of by discussing the use of “stops” and their importance to the overall well-being of your trading future.

When I was learning to drive, the first thing my instructor taught me was how to stop, even before he taught me how to go. He told me that would save my life someday. Boy does he not know how right he was LOL!!

So off we go, I’ll do the first one if no-one else has posted in an hour or two after I’ve collected the little one from school.

So the subject of STOP LOSSES and the importance of getting into the habit of using them right from the get go.

New traders may not understand the immense importance of using stop losses, I know that. I know that because I, like all traders in the world, was once a “new trader” and I DIDN’T understand the importance of using them. Many times I have entered a trade, had price go against me and 50, 60, 70 pips or more and thought, “I’ll let it run, price might come back to me.” And probably the worse thing that can happen to you is that price DOES come back to you. Because all this does is serve to reinforce in you that you don’t need to use a stop loss, because price will come back to you…WRONG!!!

In December 2011 I was rebuilding my original $400 account, which I had run down sub $70 at one point. But I was back up to around $360. The Euro Dollar, from memory, was trading around 1-32 or 1-33 and I had just went long (or bought the pair hoping it would go higher) But I was using a stop loss because as I was rebuilding my account, I had fallen into the habit of taking bigger and bigger risks. Well why wouldn’t I? My account was growing at a fantastic rate every single day !!!

But that is where the wheels came well and truly off. Almost as soon as I bought, the pair started to fall, and I let it go. I eventually, in a state of total and utter depression, cut the trade off manually with a loss to my account of around 40% of the equity. You can see the screen shot of the loss at the top of post 1 on the original Trader’s Arms thread; (incidentally, the Euro Dollar never has got back up to that level since in almost 10 months)

The Trader’s Arms-Now Open For Business

I was absolutely gutted, and I do mean that. After that I just sort of lost interest and started to make bad decision after bad decision, resulting eventually in the total loss of the account. The saddest part is that it could all have been so easily avoided by the use of a simple stop loss. I might have lost 5 or 6 dollars, but it would have been better than the 140 odd dollars that I did loose.

So STOP LOSSES. Use them every time? Yes, but how much and where to put them?

Well, it would seem that a generally accepted rule on how much you should risk on any one trade is somewhere between 1% and 2% of your TOTAL equity. This means that at any one time, on one, or a combination of all your open trades, you should have NO MORE than 2% of your account balance at risk. But then the amount of pips this translates into, would depend on how big your balance actually is. i.e; (using a micro account as an example)

If you had $1000 in your micro account (each pip being worth 10 cents in a micro account) then 2% would be worth $20. This means you could “risk” $20 on any trade. With each pip being worth 10 cents, $20 translates into a possible 200 pips of a stop loss. But if you placed a trade, and price was 200 pips OVER your entry to the wrong side, then I would imagine you got that wrong.So 200 pips is too big a stop for some people at least, depending on your trading method I guess.

In that case you could trade 2 lots and use 100 pips as a stop, still risking the same amount of money. Or 4 lots and 50 pips, 10 lots and 20 pips, 5 lots and 40 pips, doesn’t really matter, as long as it all adds up to no more than 200 pips, or 2% of your account.

But what are the determining factors as to what combination you use? What is the maximum amount of pips to the wrong side of your trade SHOULD a trader let a trade go before they think to themselves, “If it goes that far I’m just plain wrong, that will be the time to get out.”

Does it depend on price action at the time? Or the proximity of other Support and Resistance levels to your original entry?

So while this may be an individual preference, the question is, regardless of what combination you use to risk NO MORE than 2% of your account, what is the number of PIPS most commonly risked on a trade before you think, “No, got that wrong!”?

Incidentally, again for the beginners. In asking this question we have inadvertently created our first trading rule. This again may be subject to personal preference with some traders saying this figure should be even lower, but for now we’ll start with this, possibly going lower but never higher.

NEVER AT ANY TIME RISK MORE THAN 2% OF YOUR ACCOUNT BALANCE ON ANY ONE, OR A COMBINATION OF ALL OF YOUR OPEN TRADES.

Write this rule down, have it tattooed on your butt if you need to, just make sure you stick to it.

All opinions now formally accepted !! :slight_smile:

This is a very good point to start with here HOG. Stops are as you stated of immense importance. They are sometimes the only thing to protect you in an unexpected situation. These situations can differ greatly. Anything from a power outage leaving you unable to manage your trade to protecting you from well you. The thinking price will turn around it has to. Stops are also a useful tool to lock in and protecting your profits when a trade goes well.

Now comes the age old question on where to place a stop. I can only speak for me as it does not really matter where you put it as long as it fits your appetite for risk. However I hear some people talk about where can I put my stop so it does not get hit. I tend to laugh at that as is that not the point of having a stop in the first place? So when the trade goes wrong it will be hit. I like to put mine where if price reaches this point my trade was invalid and its time to cut out. This can vary depending on the trade. Anywhere from the top of a pin bar, to a swing point, or even a fib level. I have placed them behind moving averages and a great many other places. I see no point in worrying about where can I put it so it does not get hit because if thats the case then why use one?

Sure others will add to this as it is a very important part of trading and as I have said before. If when entering a trade you are not sure where to put your stop then you have no trade. I know when my trade setup is proven invalid and thats where my stop will be. Sure everyone hates to see there stop taken out by a few pips then turn and shoot in there favor. But what if it didnt? I know we all like HOG but I am not trying to join you for a beer when I blow out my account (no offense).

Looking forward to seeing how this thread develops HOG. I have read a lot of your previous thread but never posted. For me the point above by bobmanic is absolutely crucial. ‘Place the stop where if price reaches it the trade idea is invalid’. I could not agree with this statement more.

When i look at getting in a trade the stop is the most important thing i look for (well i think is it the risk/reward ratio to be more exact). Like today I was looking at a couple of setups which looked very promising but I took neither of them because my risk/reward ratio was less than 1:1. Sorry to bring up risk/reward ratios already but i think stops and risk/reward all goes hand in hand.

Looking forward to RCarter’s take on stop losses since we’ve traded the same or similar method for a while and the stop losses are something I’ve had problems with.

I suppose these pictures may well have been better suited to a discussion about Support and Resistance, but they seem to serve just as well, (as far as I’m concerned) for a discussion about placement of stops.

I actually filmed today’s rebuff of the Euro/Dollar 1-2826 previous Resistance area (1-2814 high) over a number of hours today using a screen capture software on the 1 hour chart, hoping it could be used later as an illustration of how price can react at previous Support and Resistance areas, but it took hours to play out and makes for quite tedious viewing, so I’ll go with these two pictures.

So first of all looking at the 4 hour chart, we can see far left that the 1-2826 area was once a Support area, (pink solid line) was broken and then became Resistance. Price dropped for some time after and today came back close to it. So assuming you intended to take the trade on the basis that price was reaching previous resistance, where does the stop go?

As you can see by the very first upside down white arrow, the previous swing high to 1-2826 being broken was 1-2868 (yellow dotted line). So do you either place your stop around 1-2830, thinking being that as soon as 1-2826 is broken it is no longer valid therefore you were wrong.

OR do you place your stop up around the last swing high before that (1-2868) assuming you were comfortable with a 40 ish pip stop?

OR do you place your stop around what is often referred to as “an institutional level” at 1-2850 (we’ll get to institutional levels later I am sure, just bear with me new guys).

Now granted, it isn’t best practice to make a decision based purely on one chart alone, so here is the Daily;

Now we can see in the red circle on the far left of the daily that 1-2868 does NOT appear as a clearly defined reaction point, but 1-2826 still does.

So is it a case of “breaks 1-2826 and I’m out.”??

Hope the pics come out clear enough

So are you saying that 25 pips is the most you will allow a trade to “run over”. If it is I can get that, you’ve decided that 25 pips is your limit. But this is where I become incredibly thick and admit I don’t get what difference having an institutional level in between would make.

Is it because the hope would be that price would react to the institutional level before it gets to your stop?

In your ass?

The “in your ass” guess was funny, but I’ll go for around the even figure? (1-28, 1-29, 1-30 etc)

Where? LOL!!

Thanks Banker928, so simple but so effective. And the learning begins !!

I got it mate. Just teasing.

I guess a SL depends on the kind of trading you are doing… So no exact answer.

What I can tell you is the way I use SLs. There has been a while since I gave up using tight SLs. The truth is that I got tired of being right in the direction of my calls but being stop out by one pip.

So what I do now is to use a disaster SL that usually is behind 2 or 3 S/R levels. When I place a trade, I am thinking in 2 trades: one if price moves my way and posts some kind of S/R level and two if price goes against me and also posts a S/R.

If price goes against me and posts a S/R level then I try to exit at break even or at the new S/R level and walk away with a small loss. But this kind of strategy must be done with small position sizes. I will post a chart showing an example…

Here is the example:

This was a losing trade in the Swissie, price went against me but I was able to walk away with a small loss


http://i1086.photobucket.com/albums/j449/yunny11/eurusd110.png

zooming the area of interest…


http://i1086.photobucket.com/albums/j449/yunny11/eurusd111.png

This trades are only possible because I trade small positions (and low leverage) and I am willing to hold trades for several days or even weeks…

Ah, but don’t you think you can only do that kind of thing because you have gained the experience and discipline to do it? As you said, you got tired of price moving your way overall, but taking you out first by 1 pip, which means you must have used the “traditional” stop placing method in your early days.

You now use a different method, as I said, because you now have greater experience and discipline. New traders certainly are without the first, and rarely have the second either right from the start, well at least I didn’t.

So is the use of a stop loss an ever evolving thing? The more experience you gain, the better you know yourself where you prefer to put your stop?

(Just updated my last post to add charts)

Sure HoG, when I started trading I thought I would be rich in less than a year… I used high leverage looking for a killer trade that allow me to never work again in all my life :smiley:

Now I aim for 3 to 10% monthly and let compounding do its magic… this may sound very conservative trading but works great for me…

At least for me it has evolved… Once you understand a little better the mechanics of the market and S/R then you know when a trade is never going to come back to profit… so you take a loss and move on…

Great start to another thread HoG :slight_smile:

Ok feel this could be a long winded post but since were in the process of sharing pictures i figured ill budge in and share what im currently working on…

Along side my longer swing trading strategy im now working on my live account, ive started practicing up scalping - taking my 20/30/40 pips intraday, being out and being happy. My swing trading setups can really take days or sometimes weeks before i can get a trade that i really like the looks of so this is something to hopefully grab an extra % here and there.

So this little plan im working on is trading pure S/R with candle stick patterns on a small time frame 5m/15m ( hear me out before i hear you higher time frame people switch off :smiley: ) lol…

Ok so i have to give a little legend to my charts as they could look a little confusing from the outside. I firstly work from the monthly chart downwards to the daily and pick out key levels of S/R:



Red Lines - Monthly / Weekly S/R levels
Purple Lines - Daily Levels
Light Blue - Previous month and week high and low

^ That is usually my standard setup, but for my scalping, im then going down to the 5m / 15m charts and picking up smaller intraday S/R and swing highs and lows which i could expect a reaction from price - noted by the deep pink lines, hopefully you can see the short term reactions price has:


Now the idea of this little strategy im testing is kind of a break out plan, but optimizing all the S/R levels noted - from small intraday through to the monthly. These levels are where i would expect a reaction in price.

What i watch for is then price to break through a noted S/R level, and then come back to retest this level - the trade will only then be confirmed with a candlestick rejection. Today for example, im practicing this away from my live account at the moment as i want to get more comfortable with it, so a demo trade i took today:


So at the resistance level noted at point 1, i watched for a reaction in price. Using ICT concepts, he says that there is a high likely hood that the high / low of the day is formed usually around LO 9 GMT. This can already give me a short term bias for the day. So when price has broken through support level 1, it should come back and retest it as confirmation. Hopefully its clear enough to see the wicks on the 5m chart off that level, and also produced a nice shooting star on the 5m. Used a market order entry once candlesticks looked to confirm a rejection - stop of 16 pips, above the intraday resistance level noted - the x.
The aim was then to collapse or at least take partial profits and move to break even before getting to another significant level (Noted level 2) - and today i collapsed the entire trade at 20 pips…

Anyway, thats pretty much the basics of the scalping idea im looking at - alot based on the Chris Lori material i sent your way HoG… Im looking forward to testing this a few months at least before including it in my live account antics - of course this could all be a waste and be another failed strategy, but figured id share :slight_smile:

:57: