Thought I post this up as an add on to the pivot points stuff from earlier.
First trading day of 2013 and this is the state of trading at almost 8 pm (UK time).
EU 4 Hour
You’ll notice (hopefully) from the 4 Hour chart above that today’s price action only went 2 pips above the R2/R3 midpoint which was, as you can see from the blue line, a corresponding previous resistance level, and then dropped to almost exactly the S1 level (previous support) before taking another little bounce up.
I happen to like pivot points and always have them on my screen. Trading purely the R2 midpoint, (or S2 midpoint) theory posted a couple of posts ago would, on this occasion, have worked out well for us.
Obviously we have the added conformation of the previous resistance, but by and large I think that 2 agreeing “indicators” like this would be a good little strategy within itself.
That said price won’t always reach as high (or as low) as the R2/R3 (S2/S3) midpoints, but I think it’s maybe worth while keeping this in mind when it does.
Lol its fine my friend my stool is yours to use as I am not using it right now. I have been busy with life and have not even fired up a chart either. Just keep it warm I will be back into full swing soon enough.
Very fitting that you should be the one to post the thread’s first trade of 2013, HoG. However, equally fitting might be that I am going to assume the role of the slightly dull, keeping you honest one: 17 pips is a nice headline profit, but towards the end of last year you agreed that you would, from then on, post your risk per trade as well as the result, as you really need to consider both when assessing your trading. Risking 17 (or fewer) pips to make 17 is one thing, risking 50 pips to make 17 quite another…
Sorry for being the bore, just trying to start us out on the correct path for the year!
Sorry Mr Templar, just noticed your post. Not trading today because of NFP and toothache.
You’re quite correct to bring up the point that you did, don’t have the mobile office with me today but from memory I risked 20 pips and originally targeted +40. Closed early when price struggled to break through a level.
Yesterday was 1 win 1loss purely trying out the S2 pivot levels theory. Both occasions I targeted 20 pips and risked 20 pips.
Last night I took +50 from a USD/JPY long from 87.50 to 88. Again risked 20 pips at the time.
I know it’s all a bit vague without the actual numbers in front of me but I’ll sort it out for future trades.
Like I said, not trading today. Toothache, NFP and last night’s long all added up to keep my fingers off the trading buttons today
Hasn’t it already closed outside that triangle though HOG?
The first touch of that angular line drawn off the 1.4710 August 7 low tags 1.5182 on November 14.
That puts a fresh perspective on the closing & reaction behavior of any future trade decision making resulting from bringing a trend line confirmer into play.
Based on that August 7 low touch, you could argue that price already closed outside the trend line last thursday & pulled back intraday on friday offering up a continuation short during the european trading session.
Can’t argue with you there Thalia, GBP/AUD isn’t a pair I look at too often to be honest and I’ve obviously taken a later point of reference for my bottom of the triangle trend line reference point.
Going with your lines it does put a slightly different slant (if you’ll excuse the pun) on things. I would still tend to use the horizontal support level as my decision maker though.
I’m not great, or greatly experienced, at using triangles so I tend to still put my faith in horizontal levels. Before trading this pair I’d wait to see what happens around the 1-5266 (blue line noted on chart) before I threw my hat in the ring.
We’re still 60 odd pips above that level and the last 3 trading days of this pair certainly has indicated that we’re heading there, but it’s still a wee bit in the middle of no man’s land right now for me. A bit closer to support and I’d be interested to see what happens.
Trouble with trend lines & is there are different variations of construction & application.
One set of technicians will plot them from the right edge going back, another set will plot them from the left edge going forward, some will only apply them to a specific angular degree, & yet more will only use so many touches before honoring the value etc etc.
Way too subjective for my tastes.
It’s the same with pivots & fibonacci. Far too much subjectivity to all that voodoo to warrant serious consideration.
Stick enough lines on a chart & price will bounce & jerk off one of them at some point.
Question then arises, I suppose, what are the IMPORTANT lines? Pivots I’ve looked at recently as giving me a rough guidline as to where price may move, but only at extremes, (R2 and upwards, S2 and down).
I know Fibonacci is widely used but to be honest I have a hard time with that also.
Would you then suggest that previous S&R lines are hard to beat, in comparison to other levels that can be drawn?
How many different sets of lines are necessary to design, construct & implement a successful approach, & which set of lines trumps the other?
Don’t overlook or forget the squiggly (moving average) kind?
Those, after all are the must-haves of the professional institutional crowd aren’t they?
Some of those guys wouldn’t be seen dead without those on their charts.
So if you stripped all that stuff away & took it right back to basics what are you left with?
And would what you’re left with offer you a clearer view of what’s going on out there or not?
You would assume that cobbling together all that information & utilizing the available voodoo to it’s maximum would significantly improve performance & understanding over the long haul wouldn’t you?
I mean, that’s what eveyone lends you to believe isn’t it?
How much information do you really need in order to confidently click that buy or sell button.
Happy New Year & all the very best in your trading for 2013 pub dwellers
sorry for chip on, it’s a very good question, and I think in these cases, the main and important point is to watch pricemovement ( and do nothing with it untill you not convinced) . and watch context and relationships (of other pairs - I think of common things and if happens, uncommon things too, for example how the pound reacts usually, which currency does it tends to follow = correlates). it can be adviseable to have plans, plan A,B… and let it form with the movements.
so, my question would be, where is the point, when a plan turns sure.
personally, GU has never been my favourite pair. it’s too flighty for me. if it runs in a direction, it can be determining, but there is another currency it tends to follow. and if this two adds a conflict, I would prepare to see volatility and uncertain conditions. now it seems as if it dips, but it can be run up to 1.64 as it seems a TP point for me.
and again, sorry for put my foot in. I will eagerly wait for Thalia’s and others view.
hope we all will notice the direction and please zoom out to weekly and monthly too, cause I see triangles there too. a triangle-professional would be much appreciated here
in all, I wouldn’t be worry about pound, even if it dips, God saves it’s Queen, isn’t it? and Queen saves it’s wealt, no matter in what circumstances.:26:
So how many of the regulars in here traded as normal last week? Ordinarily I would have done, but owing to a variety of domestic reasons I have only really gone back to it full time this morning. I’m currently short CAD/CHF (off the Daily) from the weekend but other than that am not in anything.
Kores: I think you were asking where we collectively think that Cable will turn around (although I am afraid that I did not follow all of your post, apologies). My own rather bland view is that it does not seem to like to go above 1.6300, so I’ll always watch that level with interest, but I rarely EOD trade Cable - too spiky for me, as you mentioned in your post. Cable only really features on my trading plan as a Pair from which to grab some Intraday pips within bigger moves, I won’t often hold it overnight. So I tend not to look to predict too far in advance - there is a big difference between my personal opinionn and my market analysis as something to trade.
Hi Mr Templar, you are very kind mentioning me. and very happy you spotted Cad/Chf - I traded it long from 9170 to the price where it is now for the second time. last night I placed an order too at 9325 to go long for 20 pips as it did and now I’m fully out. hope this pair hasn’t forgetted why it came back cause I too want to short it back. so now, just as the pair doesn’t know where to, I don’t know too where from I should sell. maybe it’s because I’m better in buying dips, but if you can help, where is your stop, maybe I would try it with much confidence.
one thing I’m worried about, if we zoom out, and after it shorts to a point, it can draw a nice head-and-shoulders inverse if it arrives to 0.926-8. can it be the reason why it doesn’t wants to short…?
Cable, I don’t mind too much, but I’d like to get in if it lifts, haha. and I just writed in here because Hog seemed a bit stressful hope all is well. Does today seems like a trade-free day? if it does, I’m out for the garden. have a nice day!
ps: I’m trying to long AN to 1.265, from 1.2545. Do you think I will suceed without stopping out? stop is 1.252
and short NU for a 30 pip parallel
I personally always look for a confluence of factors when looking to take a trade, the reason for this being principally that there will often be a case to be made for going both long and short on a given Pair. So what I am looking for is the stronger argument. It doesn’t trouble me too much if I see a couple of reasons to take the opposing view.
I’d never trade a simple chart pattern for its own sake, so equally I will never be put off a trade simply because PA is forming a pattern that makes a case contrary to my own position. So there may well be a H&S pattern forming, but looking back over any chart for any reasonable period of time will show that no pattern is particularly conclusive. Personally, double tops and bottoms are my ‘favourite’, in that I find them most reliable, but I still never trade them in isolation.
So yes, on CAD/CHF, we have had two short days and today might well turn out to be a long day, but as long as my underlying argument holds to my own satisfaction then I’ll stick with the trade. I don’t even look in on the chart during the day if I have an open EOD position, as I only want to review the chart in the evening, trail Stops etc. I have looked in now to get you a screenshot and do see that we are currently forming a low test, but it’s early in the day so I’ll just check back in this evening and see how the day has closed.
In terms of my Stop, I have simply placed it above the high of the two high tests we got on the Daily in the past couple of days. Here’s a look at my chart, I’m sorry I did not mark my SL (I forgot!) but it’s above the most recent high, above the trendline. There are a couple of Fib levels kicking in there, too, an ema, it gave me plenty of reasons to like the trade.
Always potentially tricky territory advising on the specifics of another’s trades as we all trade in different ways, and each trade forms just one part of a wider approach. However to my eye, the AUD/NZD chart is a little mixed, so I would have stayed out. The Hourly is bumping its head on the 50ema which could suggest short, the 240 is in no man’s land, although Price is a little overextended which could suggest long, the 5 minute is cycling up but due a retracement which shouldn’t hit your SL… The Daily Pivot is at 1.2572, looking at the chart some people will be shorting from there - I think I thought about it this morning. It’s a little mixed as a chart, if we get a break to the long side then there is room for 1.2650, certainly, but overall my view would be more short - of the various TFs, I’d be looking at the Hourly cycling down quite cleanly, interacting with the 50ema now, and not want to be in there long. I stress, though, that I am not trading it and I could be completely wrong!
I wish I could say I am but no I will be out for probaby most if not all of January. Someone decided to break into my house and rob me over the weekend. My remodeling of my trading lair cost a little more than I was expecting (doesnt it always). They took my new computer I was going to trade with along with all my guns and to poor salt in an open wound they also took my bottle of crown royal. I mean if you are going to break in and steal my stuff fine I have insurance for that but at least leave me a f’in drink assholes. So right now I dont have the money to replace what was taken. But hey It is insured not sure how long that will take though and there is tax returns coming up :). You may knock me down but you cant keep me there.
