Back to the 1 hour chart we go.
1 Hour:
Well, the dark cloud cover, ( in yellow ) from yesterday did hold bearish. However, as you can see, you may well NOT have taken the trade until almost the end of the Asian session with the next lage (ish) red candle drop. (5 candles to the right of the yellow box). Even then, however, if you had entered there, placing your stop at the weekly R1, you may have had a little fright with the retest 6 candles to the right of that !
This 2nd failure may well have been the better entry signal had you waited that long.
Moving up to the 4 Hour again:
4 Hour:
I believe the more cavalier traders amongst us may have taken the close of the shooting star from yesterday ( in yellow ) as their entry point.
The more conservative trader, may have waited until the retest (in orange) and subsequent failure, to provide better confirmation, and therefore a better short signal.
(Incidentally, the area shaded in green, a rejection of recent low areas, would now be entering our minds in today’s analysis as possibly pointing to an up day for today. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves just yet )
Moving up again to the Daily Chart:
Daily:
This shows the down move of earlier today. Interestingly enough though, ( and this may bring the green shaded area from the 4 Hour back into our minds ) it does show a recent reluctance to close below the 1-2930 area. ( marked in blue )
The last 3 weekly support lines, which all more or less form the same line, are all showing the strong 1-2850 support area. So that, for now anyway, really is the bottom line.
So what next ??
Well, as I said yesterday, I’m not trading this week. I genuinely have too many distractions going on this week to give this the attention it needs, so I’m Mr Sidelines for now. But, all being well, I’ll do this again tomorrow, just going over what happened.
The purpose of doing this, ( in case anyone is asking themselves what’s the point of going over what has already happened) is obviously for newbies. This is just an attempt to give ourselves a basic understanding of analysing past price action, using basic Support and resistance levels, and candlestick patterns.
This would be the same process we would use if we decided to backtest this basic method of trading, by going back, say, 2 years on our charts. We’d add our S & R levels, and using these, and our knowledge of candlestick formations, try to predict the price movement by moving the chart forward one candle at a time, on a few different timeframes.
By doing this, we’d be developing our first, simple, but effective enough, trading method.
Please forgive me if I’m sounding like a ‘know-it-all’ by writing this. I assure you all I don’t, and it is certainly NOT my intention to sound like one. As I mentioned at the start of this thread, I am going back to learning from the start myself. And this is what I am doing myself just now this week.
This thread was always intentioned to be my “think out loud” platform, telling what I’m trying to learn, how I’m trying to learn it, the process I’m using. But the obvious advantage I have here is that I know there are some very knowledgeable minds popping in and out of these doors who are normally more than willing to advise when we’ve picked something up wrong, or misunderstood something.
(or kick our arse when we just get it plain bloody wrong !! LOL )
Anyway, talk to you all soon.
HoG
You have got that under the counter right? You know the ‘nambe pamby, London’ers preferred real ale’. First to stand me a pint gets the inside track on EU? 
