Hi Gang, another week is upon us, best of luck to everyone.
Getting right into it all, so tempted just to jump straight in short GU at current price 1-6029 since we are very close to highest level since November I think, but I’m going through my charts just now and I’ll post up what I’m thinking before I go to the land of nod tonight !!
Bet you all just can’t wait LOL !!
HoG
And these gaps are huge especially on the AU opened with 100 pip gap wow
Ok, Euro Dollar
Below I’ve put up a Daily Chart EU going back to 17th Jan 2012.
Price as I write is around 1-3365. I’ll go through the lines I’ve drawn and explain what I’m thinking. Just in case anyone is wondering why I’m doing this, it’s all part of the discipline I’m trying to teach myself which is very bloody simple in nature, Have a good reason for getting into EVERY trade and be able to explain WHY I did get into it, instead of just jumping in at any old level like I have been doing in the past. So if I lay out my thoughts at the start of the week, it will make it simpler to explain why I get into any trades.
Anyway, since I’ve been keeping a note of Daily Average pip range since first day of trading 2010, I’m currently running EU Av. Daily range at 155 pips. Since we opened today, or tonight I should say, roughly around 1-3350, I’m looking high range 1-35 ish, low range 1-32 ish. The open, high and low are noted by the Pink dotted lines on the chart.
Levels of Resistance I’m thinking just now are immediately 1-3390 ish, next one up I can see is around 1-3490 ish. Resistance levels are noted by the light blue dotted lines.
Support levels I’m thinking are 1-3290 ish and then down to 1-3190 ish. Funny how all my levels seem to have moved down in 100 pip spaces eh?? Anyway, support lines are noted by the orange dotted lines.
Still think this pair are searching for a direction while playing the small range, but with China manufacturing coming in around 1am this morning, ( while I’m sleeping ) I doubt I’ll go looking to trade that tonight.
Funny thing with my chart though is even when I drop it down tot he 4 Hour chart, it still doesn’t give me, or at least I personally can’t see any, different levels to watch, so for now I’m happy enough with my levels on this chart.
HoG
China’s PMI already came in at 53.1 which was much stronger than the 50.9 forecast - is why A/U gapped up 100 pips on the open. I’m going to wait for LO and seeing what they make of it before placing any trade.
Much more tempted to go GU right now, although price has come down a little since the open. As I write it’s now around 1-6015, with recent high being around 1-6139 on this 4 hour chart.
I’ve started reading the Ken Lee BS Trading thing yunny posted a link to recently. Sam Seiden’s Supply Demand thing and I’m wondering if the area marked in ORANGE, 1-6060 up to 1-61 qualifies as a good past supply area. Which would mean current price could just pop up a bit through recent high until it hits that area.
I think this pair and the EU tend to move pretty much together though and I’m thinking ith that in mind, if I wasn’t happy taking a EU short tonight, why would I take a GU short, though again as I write, I notice price has popped up closer to resistance, currently 1-6025.
I think I’ll leave a SELL in place overnight, GU around 1-6060. Maybe only give it 15 pips risk (1-6075 ) just to test the supply demand thing out. If it never gets filled, nothing lost then.
HoG
Evening PB, just noticed your post. It has on my trading platforms Economic Calendar the the China PMI wasn’t due 'til 1am Uk time. Would I be right in thinking that China news has a stronger effect on the Australian Dollar because Australia exports so much to China, the state of the Chinese economy has a direct effect on the Aussie Dollar?
Just wondering, if anyone does use the supply and demand method, would an opening gap, like AU just had, be a valid strong level in future, or does an opening gap not count?
Ah good evening everyone!
Dragged myself to take a look at my charts as i’ve still got an ongoing swing trade i left on for the USD/CHF… Still think were about to see a bullish week for that, which effectively puts me on a bearish bias for EU and GU… Friday’s GU action was really choppy for my liking, was down about 1% by the end of the day after recovering some morning losses but hmm… The way i saw Friday was it looked like a big distribution phase, and i’m hoping to see it drop down…
But yeah, im planning to wait and see what price does at LO before jumping in yet…
Good luck for everyone this week 
P.S. Gonna make a good attempt at LO tomorrow, but i have a feeling i wont make it as im currently trying to recover from my 21st birthday party antics this weekend! 
You’d better wait for price to test the gap, after that could be a valid support level for the week
That is right, resistance starts at 1.6060, but the best price level to sell (in my opinion) is around 1.6090, the thing is if we wait price to reach 1.6090 we may miss the opportunity to sell. Here is where Money Management comes to play, is your call
Another question I have for any one who would know, or at least have an opinion on. Bar charts V’s Candlesticks, what’s the preference and why. Does each one have it’s own better uses at specific times or is it purely a personal preference thing?
Going by these 2 charts sanj, then yes we certainly seem to be close to resistance both EU and GU
EU
GU
Can’t help thinking though that we’re going up a bit before we come back down. Just looking at the channels I think I prefer the EU, but I’m interested in watching the Supply level I was talking to yunny about in GU. Just trying to learn that just now so it will be good to maybe get to see a live example of it this early in the study of it.
But, as I said, don’t think I’ll trade tonight, maybe leave a sell in GU. Yunny is more than likely right. If top of the Suply level sits around 1-61, makes more sense to try to get in around 1-6090, albeit if price gets that high, again as yunny noted.
All part of the fun and games I guess LOL
HoG
Just thought I’d throw this on and ask another question yunny. ( I’m certainly firing out the questions tonight eh? LOL )
Supply levels shown in below 4 Hour GU chart. Does the retest of the yellow supply level, marked by white arrow, make a future retest of that level weaker now, and is the orange level the stronger of the two now because of that?
And is this what is meant by a level on a level?
GU 4H
Welcome back Hog… missed you! What a well reasoned and thought out post… pleasure to read. The waters look muddy to me as well. Off the 4h I can’t see a clear move. The EU 3373 seems to be holding and building as a strong resistance point. Asian wise I’m short EU & AU off the high. Personally, I see a correction in the offing to at least 3300, possibly 3250? We’ll see. Not able to trade Monday & Tuesday this week but will look in. Great to see how you have come back strong and well reasoned since your break. Good luck and good trading!
Yes, is a level after a level, but the important factor here is the strong move after the retests and now that the price has spent good amount of time in lower levels, the area you highlighted are good points to short
Morning RC.
In a bit of a dash to get out to work right now but I will talk to you later on. It’s good to be back but please don’t let my wife catch you of accusing me of being “well reasoned” or of “thinking things out”. She may well think I’ve been living a double life all these years LOL
Just before I go, I see GU has just poked it’s head briefly above resistance line on my chart and got to 1-6043. I said in an earlier post last night that I thought it was going up before it went down, so with the orange and yellow Supply areas in mind that I was discussing with yunny, I’m going to leave a SELL with GU @1-6085, target back down to at least 1-6030, and put my stop 1-6105.
Talk later RC
HoG
EDIT:: Just left the SELL order @ 1-6088, we’ll see how we go.
Ah, didnt make it onto my charts this morning, but prefer not to do anything until atleast NY open on monday anyway, not too keen on the weekend antics still in play…
Looks like the GU made it up to the 1.606 area, but then now looks like its being sent back down…
Were currently just below the monthly, weekly, and friday’s daily high, and i expect it to push further down today… I think im biased to say most of this week, or atleast the next few days i expect to see bearish action on the GU…
Might sit out today and see where what happens with the USD/CHF as i still have my swing trades running, i’ve been adding to my position over the last few days as it come up and then back down, and now currently have about 3 positions open around roughly the same level…
I also wondered this… After going through a video of ICT’s:
Trading The New York Session - YouTube
It got me to start using them similarly to how ICT uses them in the video on the daily charts… For me anyway, it just gives a simple clearer picture in terms of the days range compared to other days, and also the open n close, i just find it more pleasing on the eye… But overall it shows the exact same things so i guess comes down to a matter of preference…
HoG, did you leave the sell order at 1.6060? if so you are now 60 pips in profit
Now the 1.6060 level has been used, forget about it at least in the short term, if you want to still go short look for a better level…
Sorry it’s taken me so long to reply yunny, just got home from work and read your post.
I’d love to be able to say I took the short at 1-6060, but I put my entry up at 1-6088, so didn’t get in. But it’s like we spoke about last night, knowing the levels is all well and good, but the entry point is much more subjective and we all need to pick our own.
However, not getting in doesn’t really bother me that much to be honest. If I can continue to recognize the levels, then it’s surely only a matter of patience and time before I fine tune the entry points. I think it has still been a good little excercise in learning, or at least starting to learn, the supply and demand method.
And in any case, I didn’t lose anything so nothing to feel bad about. Will keep watching and trying to figure out new levels.
HoG
Honestly that is something I have to work on learning. Being able to leave a pending order. If I could trust myself in that area a whole bunch of doors will open for me in my trading. Its just I like to read price action and candle sticks to make my entry. I cant do that with pending orders. So I think I might go back and play around with pending orders on a demo for a while
