As i write this, were getting a strong push through the break, but waiting for a close on the 1 hour before i do anything… Havent seen any positive entry today on EU or GU, so im sitting on my hands for the moment… My bias is still saying today will be bearish both EU and GU… Im looking for what Yunny mentioned earlier, around 300 pip drop as im looking for roughly a similar movement in the USD/CHF…
Hi Sanj
Only thing that bothers me for today is that the EU has already covered 3 quarters of the Av. daily pip range. Now obviously I’m not saying that price cannot move MORE than the average range, but I think we are coming to a level of support around 1-3080/90 and I’m just wondering if there is a level to get in today, or would it be better to wait for some kind of pull back and then re-assess the entry point.
I agree HoG
Looks like GU and EU have both hit a demand zone… Personally, GU is looking a little clearer to me so im sitting and waiting for my entry on that. Think we have hit a bounce off the demand area…
Looking for it to go up and test yesterday’s daily low and then i’ll get in short somewhere in the grey area…
Yeah sanj
This is what I came up with on the EU 4 Hour:
I think I am looking for the EU to go back up to around 1-3180. I’ll take it from there.
HoG,
Nice analysis, just stick to S/R as your main tool. As you said support comes at 1.3080 and then 1.3050, now the question is will those levels hold?? my take is that we will get some sort of rebound and then keep going south…
Friendly advice: use trendlines only as a reference of you bias.
Thanks yunny
I’m enjoying reading in to the supply/demand thing. I don’t put a whole lot of weight on trend lines, but they do make me a little more hesitant if price is around a trend line.
GU traded up into my grey area, im short from 1.5880…
Hoping for a TP around the 1.58 figure - the 127 fib extension and last weeks weekly low… :51:
Hey Sanj
Just wondering what timeframe the chart you posted above was from.
That’s a 5 minute TF on the GU… Was just going in to try and pick my entry, which seems to be going nowhere since i got in LOL… Currently sitting on BE after failing to break the asian lows set this morning, or yesterdays low…
I think i will leave it open til 6pm GMT, and if no movement by then i will look to close out…
I wish I knew what the Daily Average pip range on the GU was. Like I said earlier, EU has already traveled 3 quarters of it’s Average range, and while I know that does not mean it can’t go further than that, off the top of my head from memory, EU has only traveled MORE than it’s Daily Range approx 28% of the time since the turn of the year.
So maybe this is just a bit of a breather for the EU and the GU
Didn’t want to clutter the thread with questions not directly trading so I have dug out the old car pub thread and stuck a question on it. Any info would be appreciated
http://forums.babypips.com/melting-pot/41659-tcp-car-pub-14.html#post338630
That GU short SanJ may well work out, especially over the Asian with its propensity to retest the days low or high. But as I’m away from the monitors most of this week I’ve gone long off the low with a stop just below 5829. If Asian retest doesn’t take it out I feel its a good bet given GU is in an uptrend.
I had to go out for a little bit, and my iPhone decided to die on me so couldn’t check my charts nor close my trade, come back to see it still ranging… May just leave it open now to see if anything significant will happen towards NY close or the asian… I think the break of this morning asian lows will see it push back down, but the break of yesterday’s low range which i have marked from about 1.589-ish will see it push up… Its coming up to test yesterday’s low for the 3rd time at the moment but failed to break through…
Was really hoping for more action towards LC today, but ah well, beggers cant be choosers eh…
And HoG, my ADR indi shows that GU could have pushed another maybe 30 or so pips before reaching its ADR, which would have lined up almost perfectly with my TP level of 1.58 - along with my other confluence of the 127 fib, and the last weeks weekly low. Ah well, lets see how it plays out over the next few hours…
I’m not overly eager to take on trades this week as my swing trade on the USD/CHF is paying off amazingly at the moment, i opened an initial position risking 2%, and then another 2 position bought on dips risking also 2% (which in hindesight i probably shouldnt have done as if this turned south i would have been down 6%), but if i sold out now, there all roughly sitting at 120 pips, and would be looking at a ROI of 16.7%, which im over the moon with! Going to keep hold onto them as i think i can see it push another atleast 100 pips before i look to close out…
Uncharacteristically, it looks like there will be no retest of todays GU low on the Asian. Perhaps tomorrow? LOL. Watching 5916 - 5934 for a twitch in PA though.
Think its down due to some general structural maintenance work and stuff… They want to get everything sorted with the Olympics getting closer and closer… There’s always something going wrong in and around London !
I closed out my GU short yesterday before going to sleep, looking at the action from last night, it would have missed my SL by 1 pip and i would still be in atm… Ah well, can’t win em all!
Will 1-3080 hold or does it go through. Had charts with my watch levels marked out, but am unable to post them now as I’m at the hospital just now because the lovely Mrs HoG has torn her achillies tendon at “keep fit” class this morning.
However, on the bright side, I notice I’ve made 30 pips profit from a little EU short, (1-3140 down to 1-3110).
Anyway, waiting for the wife to get a cast on and then it’s home. I’ll try to post my charts up when I get there if I’m not too busy running up and down stairs with tea !!!
Guess that’s the 1-3080 question answered
Just wondering now if we linger in the yellow zone (1-3085 down to 1-3050 ) until NY opens before another push down, or is there a pop up on the way?
EU 1 HOUR
This was the chart I made up last night before price dropped this morning into the yellow zone