For some reason I have also started adding the mid-points from Daily Av pip range extreme highs or lows. Don’t really know why to be fair, but I just like to see it on the chart. Here is the EU 4 Hour.
Just wondering if the action on the EU Daily counts as a head and shoulders and if the break of the neckline around 1-3035 opens up the possibilty of an equal drop below.
EU Daily
EDIT: I know it may well turn out to be academic, but my neck-line should be 1-3030 rather than 1-3035.
So, with the EU already having traveled around 110 pips of it’s 155 Daily average, and with the holidays tomorrow + NFP numbers, I reckon I am pretty much done for the week. I know NY has just opened but, since we have already almost reached R2 on the daily Pivot, and maybe some short covering starting to happen going into the long weekend starting to show up on the chart, I don’t think I’ll be doing much more this week.
So I thought I would just tidy it all up by adding the Acc Balance as I;ve not done it for a while.
As you can all see I’m sitting $62.35, which is pretty good when you consider I started this week around $53/$54.
Happy overall with not just the trades made this week, but the manner they were made and how they were managed.
So if I don’t get back to the forum before the week closes, which is a possibilty since I am doubling up as nurse HoG Nightingale right now, I hope you all have a good weekend and I hope the week was good to you all.
Have fun and be lucky, and I hope Rory wins the Masters !!
HoG
I was going to post my charts for the week ahead, but to be honest, I’m too busy watching the Masters. So no trading tonight guys
I know I said I was watching the Masters ( which I still am ) but I thought I would put this up. I’m thinking range will be small on Monday due to the Easter holiday, and from the open around 1-31 I think it will go as high as Daily Pivot R2 at approx 1-3150 at the maximum. This is where it would meet yellow area I have marked as a previous supply area.
If it does get this high, I reckon the bottom end of the day will be around 1-30 as my Daily av Pip range is still running around 155 pips. But since Easter Friday’s whole range was contained within approx 60 pips, I don’t think Monday will be much different, so right now I’m thinking 1-3060 ( give or take a handful of pips ) will be Monday’s low.
So in summary I’m expecting Easter Monday to be contained within 1-3060 - 1-3150 at the extremes.
Whether or not that throws up any opportunities to enter remains to be seen.
Anyway, that’s my 2 cents, back to the Masters.
Best of luck to all this week.
HoG
I’d have to agree with your assesment Hog… I don’t see a break higher than 3110… seems to me more like a retest of the lows. But I don’t see PA going past 3033 and in time I expect a sizable bounce north.
EDIT: Not much one for the Asian… but I’ve a small position short off 3088… straight 1:1 RR… SL 3119 & TP 3045.
Any chance you could be a bit more precise in future RC ?? I mean, your predicted low of 3033 through Asian was almost an entire 2 pips out !! LOL.
Well done on the short anyway, gets the week off and running. I noticed on the news last week that The Dragons won as well, so happy days all round eh?
Just getting my tea before I head off to work and price is sitting pretty much slap bang in the middle of nowhere right now so not much happening this end.
Talk later
HoG
Just noticed that the Eur/CHF managed to duck below the 1-20 floor. Wondering if the SNB comes back with avengence after Easter or is this a sign of more future weakness ???
I suppose that it is a sign of more future weakness. It is more seems to be truth.
Well , the whole sum of Easter Monday’s trading for me was scalping 7.6 pips profit. Admittedly that won’t go down in history as the best trading day ever, but by and large it’s better off in my pocket as not.
without meaning to sound know-it-all, I think between myself and RC, we guessed the day’s range not too bad.
Just sold the Aud/Jpy at 84.02. thought it looked good on the 4 Hour;
AUD/JPY 4 Hour
Although, have to admit, if I’d looked at the daily chart BEFORE I put the trade on, I wouldn’t have done it, so I’ll maybe not give it the full distance to my stop if it starts to go against me. Another little mistake along the learning curve !!
AUD/JPY Daily
Closed the above trade. may be a good idea, may be a bad one from a profit/loss point of view, but from a “I have no confidence in this trade whatsoever” point of view, it was a good one.
Price started to run away from me a wee bit, (was 10 pips down) so I moved my stop down from levels shown in above post, to 84.15 (13 pips risk max). Luckily though, price came back to me and I was more than happy to close out eventually for a massive +1.6 profit.
Lack of analysis on my part totally, didn’t look at the daily before I entered. Price may drop a whole load now, but I don’t care. got out through luck, nothing else !!
Never a dull moment.
Had a look at Tuesday’s economic calendar and there doesn’t seem to be anything of importance due out news wise tuesday.
May just give the Euro a bit of air so decided to take a long at 1-3113, looking for 1-3165, stop at daily pivot on 13090.
As ever, the pink lines are my Daily Average pip range, low end today 1-2960 ish, high end 1-3265 ish. Haven’t worked out the exact numbers tonight to be honest, just used rough 155 pips either side of the open.
Nothing wrong with your analysis hog… just a difference of opinion. I’m short off 3121 tonight after taking a long off the low. Stop pretty tight for me at 3138. Absolute low does seem to be pointing to 3031 so longer term my bias will be long. :19:
EDIT: I’d be happier with a fractal on the 4h and hoping to get it with the close of the current bar… we’ll see?
I know these posts seem to be coming in rapid succession tonight but it would seem there is no end to the backside I’m making of things tonight.
I have 2 separate 4 hours charts running just now, (for some strange reason ). First one is completely empty, (and I don’t know why I have it running at all ). So similarly to the last AUD/JPY trade, AFTER I place the EU trade and enter the profit and stop levels, I open up the OTHER 4 Hour Chart I have running to find this:
That would be a previous supply level I have marked which I intended to short if price wandered back up there. So as you can see I’ve had to change my levels round a little.
So I’m off to bed now because obviously something isn’t working properly between the ears tonight and it would probably be more dangerous to continue than anything else.
I’ll leave the trade running though as it’s still only 16 or 17 pips risked for 34 ish gain and I think it has a chance anyway.
HoG
EDIT: Didn’t notice your post RC until AFTER I had made my update. You have me even more worried now that your opinion differs from mine, but as I once said to you, I’m trying to learn to stick with my own convictions, for better or worse, a bit like being married again LOL !!
Anyway, off to bed my friend, just have to nip out the back garden first in the peeing rain and close the back garden gate cos some-one has left it open and it’s banging with the wind. Why can’t children close a gate, it’s not rocket science???
Woke up this morning to find that BOTH my stop and my target where missed by less than 2 pips during the night. Now there’s a strange emotional situation to find yourself in !!
On the plus side I suppose it was good to note that the yellow supply zone I had marked out seems to have held pretty well this morning. I think this could open the door to a higher high for today at some point.
EDIT: Anyway, forgot to mention that I had closed the above trade ( for a VERY small profit ) because I tend to think that as we approach the close of the Asian session, the traders through that session like to exit their positions en masse. And since last night’s move was more up than down, this morning’s exodus may well bring my stop into play ( which, as it turns out, would just have been hit as I write this )
So I think I’m now looking for a better price to go long again today.
HoG
In long EU @ 1-3065 looking for 1-31
Hey everyone… Hope u had a good easter weekend…
I havent looked at a chart since the end of thursday, had a nice weekend off!
Didnt get in on this mornings drop on the GU… HoG, i think your long EU will work out… Looks quite nice off the bounce…
GU is looking bearish to me overall for today and think the upward movement is just the retrace before NY open… Im looking to get short on GU at around 1.5855/60 after the break of today’s Asian low’s just now…
Argh, picked my top wrong… Thinking of closing my trade, should have gone short around 1.5890
Got stopped out on EU for -17 last night… naterally right before the drop! 
Currently long off EU @ 3070… will let it play out as stop now inside the trade.