The Trader's Arms - Now Open for Business

Not exactly pivot points, but you may find this very interesting: http://www.fibonaccitrader.com/journals/FTJ14.pdf

I don’t think that’s my trading platform you can hear calling my name bobmaninc, it’s more likely to have been my wife. She’s been laid up in bed for the last 10 days with a torn achilies tendon and the only thing she has done is shout Get me this, Get me that, can I have this, can I have that.

Now that was ok 10 days ago. But by last night I was actually wondering if I beat her to death with my 7 iron, what age I would be let out of prison with good behaviour LOL !!

Great link mozdef, thanks for that. I’m actually on my way out to work right now but I’ll have a look through the pdf tonight. Thanks again.

HoG

One other question I’d like to ask before I head out into the big world this morning is this. It may be a bit basic, even by my standards, but hey, if you don’t know …ask…right?

Anyway, I noticed in one of Sanj’s posts last night that he said his alarm clock goes off at 5:30 am so he can get up and look at his charts. Now not knowing Sanj’s working hours, that may just be the time he has to get up and get on with life.

But I have noticed before that SimonTemplar ( currently sunning himself with the rest of the Templar clan in warmer pastures ) has also mentioned getting up at that time to get on with his charts.

So what’s happening at half five guys??? Is it the Asian session ending, because I thought was a bit later. Are you guys having the 5:30 am rave and not telling me ??

Any info welcome as usual

Anyway, it’s a sunny morning in Glasgow so off to work with a smile on my face. I fancy EU up to 1-32 today, might be a bit ambitious but if the sun has came out in Glasgow, anything is possible !!

Morning Hog! (not going to label it a good morning as of yet as im still groggy after only managing 3 hours sleep)

Tbh, from my point of view anyway, i havent purposly picked 5.30am to wake up, its just a time which allows me to get up, get ready, have breakfast and leave me about an hour in the morning to do some analysis and note down some ‘watch levels’ to look out for at work during the day. Also, 5.30 my time, is 4.30 GMT which for GU - which is probably my preferred pair to trade, not much happens. So no special reason on my end for picking 5.30, it just allows me to have about an hour in the morning for analysis before i have to get to the office for my 8-4…

Also, there are some days where there is some action before LO, so it kind of works out for me that im awake and on my charts before as i like to see what has gone on… But anyway, personal preference, ST may have a completly different reason of course…

Im actually swayed bearish on GU, EU today… I must admit i had a SL hit this morning on the GU already with a bad entry, i am perceiving this morning’s price jump as the fake out - or the Judas Swing as ICT likes to call it, just didnt expect such a large one. I’m back in after the double top (with what i believe to be a better entry) and short GU @ 1.5920… Im hoping for a strong push down today, maybe even hitting around the weekly low and 1.58 figure? See how the rest of the day plays out…

Good luck to everyone today :slight_smile:

Seems a reasonable place to short SanJ… I’ve a short GU @ 5928 and a EU @ 3150. We’ll see!

I actually got stopped out at BE+1 after locking BE and taking off 1/4 of my position at +30 pips

But I also got back in short at 1.5928 lol! Trying to post a pic from my iPhone but doesn’t seem the app will let me… Ah well… Hoping this will be the final ‘fake out’ before the push through that 1.588 zone that it couldn’t get past before…

With you on the E/U short. So long as we stick below 1.3165 I think bears are firmly in control. Let’s see what happens. Looks like Mr Market forgot to take his mood control pills recently - he’s liable to do anything.

Agreed PB… the 1h now has a confirmed fractal at the high (3155) which is comforting but I’d prefer to see one on the 4h.

I dunno guys, the sun is still in Glasgow, which we all know is the internationally recognised risk on indicator. So with that in mind, I think we’re hitting 1-32, then we’re finding Lord Lucan, I’m making the seniors tour and bob is well and truly yer auntie !!!

Sounds like the Twilight Zone up there HoG. Could well be right. If we stick below the 38.2% I’ll keep a bearish bias as it’d be a signal to me that bears are still in control. We get above that and I’ll go flat and wait to see what transpires.

Managed to get home from work a little early, as the GU seems to be stuck in range i got looking at some other pairs…

Think ive spotted a nice potential set up in the GJ


Grey area is my watch zone, will look to go short in there…

I’m sticking to 3155 as the high. Could have bagged 50 odd off the GU & EU 1h downmove but I have a bathroom to tile! LOL. So will run both on a longer correction and hopefully more pips. If I were a an Elliott wave type (which I’m not) you could argue that off the 04/10 (3053 low) we’ve had the 1 through 5 and now we’re into the a through c correction? LOL!!!

You make an Elliott wave explanation without one “But it could also be a…” qualification! You sir are no Elliotician. I bid you good day.

You slight me sir! 3053 low to 3099 (wave 1), 3099 to 3065 (wave 2), 3065 to 3131 Wave 3 … longest one), 3131 to 3088 (wave 4), 3088 to the high 3155… complete. 3155 to 3119 (wave a), 3119 to 3152 (wave b) 3152 to? (wave c). I’ll expect an apology Sir or its pistols at dawn! :5:

Ah what the heck you can buy me a beer in ‘The Traders Arms’… as stated I’m no Elliott wave devotee! :smiley:

Or if you don’t fancy that, we also now carry a fine selection of Teas…BYOCHN. ( Bring Your Own Chocolate Hob Nobs)

I see the EUR/CHF quintupled it’s daily average range today by spiking a colossal 20 pips ! On the serious side of that though, I am tempted to buy 1 lot in that just now and stick a stop just under the 1-20 floor as I’ve read a few rumours that the SNB are considering raising that floor to 1.25.

Might be worth just letting it run for a day or two.

Lol, just the lack of movement on that chart puts me off wanting to even do any analysis on it!

I’m currently in short on the AU, shooting star on the 4H right into my 62-79 fib zone…

To be honest with you sanj, I’m scouring my charts right now and I can’t find a single thing I’d like to trade.

Everyone is talking about Euro shorts right now, the Greek deficit report showing more danger to the EZ, EZ heading for another recession and all the usual tales of woe. But the fact is the nobody seems to have told the EURO that it’s in a bad way.

Above is a chart of my trading platforms own dollar index. It’s not screaming strength to me, ( as if that goes up, the EU, GU will both fall ) Granted the three pins highlighted at the bottom may well be hinting at an imminent up move, but the last candle is just saying “Whoa, not so fast with the trigger finger big boy.”

Now the Euro weakness, or the pound weakness may well be just around the corner, but looking at my charts, as we speak right now, nothing stands out to me at all, so I am on the side lines.

This in itself tells me that I am progressing in my trading abilities. Because in times gone by, I would have found a trade some-where in amongst all of that and wrote the country & western song about it after it all went tits up.

There may well be a trade in amongst it all, and I might just not be seeing it, but I’m now very much of the “if in doubt…” philosophy.

Funny thing is that you could argue if I don’t see a trade in my “usual” pair, I could go looking at other pairs. But us Glaswegians are shy retiring creatures by nature, we like to stick to what we know.

Haven’t looked at tomorrow’s economic Calendar yet so don’t know just now who or what is at risk. No doubt I shall come back with some other ramblings tonight !!

HoG

EDIT: In actual fact, you could even argue that the last 3 days on the EU has seen higher highs, and higher lows. Setting up for a fall? Or further strength ?

I still am swayed bearish… I really hoped for more downward movement today but didn’t get it… I ended up closing my position today at just under +30, may have been a mistake if im looking for a downward move… I think GU will take another stab at the 5930 again before dropping - if it drops…

My AU trade today:


Felt quite confident on this trade, was nearing the top of the down trend channel line, rejection out of the 62-79 fib area with a shooting star on the 4H…

HoG, i like what you mentioned in your post about progressing with your trading abilities… I remember a few months ago i felt as if i didnt have a trade on, i wasnt seeing the opportunity and was missing out on potential pips. But i think the one of the biggest things us newbies need to learnt to grasp, is not when to trade, but when not to trade… I find myself taking a lot less trades now and try to look for 2/3 factors of why i should buy and sell rather than just one… The more factors i have supporting it, the more confident i feel… But its still something i battle with and still feel i sometimes take trades i shouldn’t have… Definitely done that at least once already this week…

Anyway, all part of the learning process!
Bed time for me…
Catch y’all in the morning…

Hey SanJ,

FYI, there’s AUD unemployment rate release around 01:30 GMT tonight, might create some volatility so if you can, keep an eye open & on it. :44:

Added after news release;
SanJ, better than expected AUD employment numbers, blasted right through Tue’s & Wed’s highs, hope you covered your short.
:56: